NFL Picks

Our week 1 over/under picks of the 2012 season went 9-5. Let’s go through the week 2 over/under lines to show you where we lean. Don’t forget to check out our week 2 picks against the spread. And be sure to sign up for our pick ‘em league for a chance to win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt, it’s not too late to win!

Be sure to check out our mobile site which we just touched up a bit, you can check out our picks from anywhere! You should also like us on Facebook.

WEEK 2 OVER/UNDER PICKS

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY — OVER/UNDER 50.5 — Slight lean on the over as Green Bay usually puts up at least 30 points when playing at home and I expect the Bears to put up at least 20.

TAMPA BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS – OVER/UNDER 44 — Tampa Bay’s defense has improved and they’re not an offensive Juggernaut. I think you see a final score in the ballpark of 24-17.

BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA — OVER/UNDER 46.5 — Both teams have strong defenses, but their offenses can put up points against tough defenses. Both teams should score in the 20’s.

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI — OVER/UNDER 38.5 — The public is split down the middle. It’s a low number. I don’t expect to Browns to score more than 13. The Bengals should be due for 20-24. Slight lean on the under.

OAKLAND @ MIAMI — OVER/UNDER 38.5 — Both had trouble scoring in week 1. I’m expecting a 20-17 final score. Slight lean on the under.

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA — OVER/UNDER 51 — Both defenses are atrocious. This should be a shootout as both …

In Week 1, I hit a homer with my Texans pick, which was my only 9/10 confidence rating play and followed it up by hitting my Monday Night play thanks to the Ravens. When it came to the majority of games though, I like almost everyone got a little banged up. In general, Vegas looked to make out pretty well Week 1. The best record in our pick ’em league was The Moose and Bucinator at 9-7. Everyone else went .500 or below. A lot of people had the Packers, Panthers, Saints, and Seahawks, all favorites who lost to the dog. Here’s what’s on tap in week 2. I decided to rank the games by confidence levels, starting with my favorite picks and working my way down. Check back before kickoff for additional updates. Be sure to sign up for our pick ‘em league for a chance to win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt, it’s not too late to win! Also check out our mobile site which we just touched up a bit, you can check out our picks from anywhere! You should also like us on Facebook.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS — Confidence: 8/10 — The Cowboys looked phenomenal opening up against the Giants. Their new corners are exactly what they needed and Tony Romo is going to have a heck of season. Those corners will give DeMarcus Ware those few extra seconds to get to the quarterback and pile up the sacks. Ware will have a big season. Russell Wilson struggled against the Cardinals defense and should have the same problems against the Cowboys. Wilson just couldn’t get the pass protection he needed and that should be the same story this week. Wilson was sacked …

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+7.5) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

One of the spreads that immediately jumped off the page to me was Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ New York Giants. I think that’s an extremely generous spread for the Bucs. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I think the Bucs will go down as the most improved team from 2011. They are this year’s Cincinnati Bengals — a team with 4 wins from the prior season that goes on to to have a winning season the next year.

What do I like about the Bucs? Hopefully, a rebound from Josh Freeman. Freeman had an amazing 2010 season, but his 2011 season was dreadful. Freeman went from 25 TDs/6 INTs to 16 TDs/22 INTs. When Freeman was on, the Bucs had a 10-6 record and nearly kept the Packers out of the playoffs when the Packers went on to win a Super Bowl. Freeman also has a new playmaker in Vincent Jackson to throw to, who will compliment Mike Williams. The Bucs drafted Doug Martin with the 31st pick, a runningback out of Boise State, who many are comparing to Ray Rice. Martin had 95 rushing yards and 4 receptions for 23 yards in his NFL debut.

On defense you have DT Gerald McCoy returning from injury and paired up with DE Adrian Clayborn, both first-round picks. The secondary of the Bucs has also improved with 7th overall pick Mark Barron at safety to provide some help to two quality corners in Aqib Talib and Eric Wright.

What a lot of people forget is that the Bucs started last season 4-2 before losing their last 10 games, which can be partly blamed on injuries.This Bucs team beat both the Falcons …

This year we get  a taste of what it will be like to have the NFL feature a Thursday Night game each week. We start off with a fantastic NFC North matchup between two playoff contenders. In week 1, we hit our big money play in the Texans and won our Monday Night pick thanks to the Ravens. We go into Thursday Night with a full head of steam. Here’s my analysis, prediction, and pick against the spread for this game.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)

Matchup History

The Packers won both contests against the Bears last year. On September 25 in Chicago, the Packers won 27-17 and covered the 4-point spread. On December 25 in Green Bay, the Packers won 35-21 and covered the 13-point spread. The Packers also beat the Bears 21-14 as 3.5-point favorites in the 2011 playoffs after splitting games in the 2010 season, which saw a 10-3 Packers win on January 2 and a 20-17 Packers loss on September 27. The Bears covered both spreads in 2010 while the Packers covered both spread in 2011.

Line Trends

54% of the public is taking the Packers against the spread and 46% of the public is taking the points. We have an even split (2-2) on the expert picks at covers.com. The line opened at Packers (-5.5) and moved to Packers (-6) as some early money came in on the Packers.

Injuries

WR Greg Jennings tweaked his groin in the 49ers game and is listed as questionable. I expect Jennings to play. Bears CB Charles Tillman injured his leg in the Colts game. He played another snap after the injury occurred, but then sat out the rest of the game. He is listed as questionable. …

We’re ready for some Monday Night Football. Tonight we have a double header featuring the Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by the Oakland Raiders (+1) hosting the San Diego Chargers. I’m not touching the Raiders/Chargers game, but the Ravens/Bengals is worth looking into.

We hit our big-money play to open the season. Our first 9/10 confidence pick on the year was a winner thank to the Texans, who took care of business against the Dolphins. Unfortunately, I then decided to play with the house’s money and made some small plays in the later games only to give a small portion on those winnings back, but hey, it was free money to play with. I got a little over eager due to finally snapping my football withdrawal, but we just have to stick to our method of identifying one or two key games each week and taking them down hard. Let’s see what we have tonight.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7)

Line Trends

I would first like to note the action on this spread since it opened. The line opened at Ravens (-6) before moving to Ravens (-7.5) before settling back down to Ravens (-7). 84% of bettors taking the moneyline have the Ravens. 63% of the public is taking the Ravens against the spread. 64% of the experts at covers.com like the Ravens.

History

Over the last 3 years, these teams are 3-3 head-to-head. Cincinnati has the edge with the spread with a 4-1-1 record ATS. The Ravens have  won three straight against the Bengals, while the Bengals won the three games before that. Last year the Ravens won both games. On November 21 in Baltimore, the Ravens won 31-24. On January 1 in Cincinnati, the …

Nailed my big opening play on the NFL season. Damn, that one felt good. I went BIG on the Texans and they delivered!

4:00 games coming up. Texans was my big money game. Have some small plays on the Packers moneyline, Panthers (-2.5), and Seahawks (-3). Nothing big. Hope you guys jumped on the Texans.

This is great: if logos were honest.

…

I’m about to take off gentlemen. I’m headed to New York City for a bachelor party. Before departing, I wanted to provide everyone with the final word for this weekend.

Brandon Phillips’ SMART BET is Back!

It’s good to have my boy Brandon Phillips back. Brandon was THE PASS RUSH’S college football guy in 2009 and 2010 until taking a break in 2011. We’re glad to have him back on board. Our readers were calling for his bowl special last year after going 9-3 ATS in the 2010 bowl season.

Just to give you a little story of how Brandon and I crossed paths. We were both 3rd-year law students. I see this guy in class (good old Taxation of Business Entities) with a sheet of every football spread for the week and he’s going through it and circling home underdogs and what type of field the team is on. If the visiting team plays on a different type of field, he’ll do some extended due diligence on the matchup and will look to stick with the home dog and the points. We then struck up a conversation about football betting and I invited him to begin contributing to the site.

I’m sure Brandon will be posting some Saturday college football picks for you. His opening pick of 2012 was a success, going with Cincinnati (-5) over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Bearcats rolled 34-10. Hopefully, there will be plenty more where that came from.

Sunday’s Final Word

I wish I could have had the same success as Brandon with my opening pick, but the Giants suffered from the Super Bowl hangover. Just a note on my confidence ratings, I grade my picks on a scale of 10. I never …