NFL Picks

Below are some quick over/under plays for NFL week 1 action. Be sure to check out all of my week 1 picks against the spread. My big play this week is a teaser of Texans -3/Under 50, my little play is the Panthers -2.5 over the Bucs. Be sure to sign up for our pick ’em league for a chance to win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt.

INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO BEARS – OVER/UNDER 43 – Touhh call here. I’m not touching it. What kind of numbers is Andrew Luck capable of against a Bears defense? Nobody knows until we see it on Sunday. Stay away. Slight lean on the over due to the Colts suspect defense that gave up 26.9 PPG last season. W

BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS – OVER/UNDER 40.5 – The bar is set pretty low for these teams. The Jets offense is struggling and the Jets defense will make it difficult for the Bills to score touchdowns. Slight lean on the under as both teams struggle to reach 20 points. L

JACKSONVILLE @ MINNESOTA – OVER/UNDER 38 – I like the over here as the bar has been set pretty low. Just a gut feeling that this could be an back-and-forth shootout. Weird games happen in Minnesota. Can we possibly see a 27-24 game here? I think so. W

MIAMI @ HOUSTON – OVER/UNDER 43 – I like this under here since Miami will struggle to score 10 points and Houston’s running game will slowly eat up clock against the 3rd ranked run defense from 2011. W

ST. LOUIS @ DETROIT – OVER/UNDER 46 – Stafford will be throwing darts on Sunday and Bradford will try to keep …

After Texans (-10) over Dolphins and Giants (-3) over Cowboys, the next game that sticks out to me on the week 1 card is Panthers (-2.5) over Buccaneers, thanks to the Panthers two routs over the Bucs last year. Before you jump on this pick right away, let’s try to break this game down.

*** Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. ***

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This looks like a great spread to take since it’s essentially a pick ’em game and the Panthers beat the Bucs by an average of 25.5 points in their matchups last season. Last year the Panthers absolutely dominated the Bucs, which is why I am so tempted to take this game right out of the gate without thinking twice.

In week 16 last year, the Panthers demolished the Bucs when the game was played in Carolina 48-16. The Panthers running game trampled over the Bucs with the trio of Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams all gaining over 60 yards on the ground and averaging about 10 yards-per-carry. The Panthers put up 270 rushing yards and 163 passing yards.

The teams also faced each other in week 13 in Tampa Bay. The Panthers again rolling in that game 38-19. That game featured a more balanced Panthers attack that gained 222 yards in the air and 163 yards on the ground. Cam Newton also had three rushing touchdowns in that game. It’s clearly no surprise that the Bucs ranked last in the NFL against the run and the Panthers ranked 3rd in rushing offense in the NFL.

I’m not expecting another rout …

After looking at the Week 1 lineup, the only spread I’m going to go big on is HOUSTON (-10) over Miami. I’m actually going to tease the spread to HOUSTON (-3) & UNDER 50. With the Texans D, I don’t expect Miami to score more than 10 points. The Texans will easily cruise to victory. My other play is NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys. Other than those two games, nothing really interests me except Carolina (-1) over TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO (-9.5) over Indianapolis, and DETROIT (-9) over St. Louis.

*** Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. ***

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Dallas Cowboys — I’m taking the Giants in this one. They’ve owned this matchup in the last 3 years going 5-1 against the Cowboys. L

CHICAGO BEARS (-9.5) over Indianapolis Colts — Bears looks like a potential play here. Andrew Luck looks solid so far, but the Bears defense will prove to be too much in his first regular season game. W

Buffalo Bills (+4) over NEW YORK JETS — The Jets offense is pathetic. They can’t run the ball, they can’t pass the ball, they can’t block. Take the points. Bills are my favorite underdog this week. You can also add 7 points to the Bills spread to make it +11 and take the the under 47.5 if you want to tease this one. L

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10) over Miami Dolphins — I am all over this game and very confident in my teaser with Texans -3/Under 50. W

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS —  Should be a tight game …

We’re back with another season of NFL picks against the spread. We already have our Giants vs. Cowboys pick posted and we’re going to see what is on tap for Sunday, September 9, 2012. Before we can into the pick for this game, remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-10)

I’m very high on the Texans this year. The Texans defense ranked 2nd in yards allows and 4th in points allowed last season. Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator can take credit for that as the Texans ranked 30th and 29th respectively in those categories in 2010.

Despite the loss of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, the Texans should still have one of the better defenses in this league. They were able to add Bradie James to pair up with Brian Cushing to shore up their linebacking corp. Sophomore DE J.J. Watt, who had an amazing rookie campaign, is receiving a ton of phrase from Wade Phillips, who went as far as saying that this guy is a future Hall of Famer. The Texans also have one of the best sets of cornerbacks in the league with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson (2010 1st-round pick).

Houston is 6-0 (4-2 ATS) against Miami in their last 6 games. The faced each other least season in week 2. The game was in Miami and the Texans won 23-13. In that game, Arian Foster was limited to 10 touches due to his hamstring injury and Ben Tate got the bulk of the carries. Tate rushed the ball 23 times for 103 yards. With a healthy Arian Foster, the Texans offense should be …

We are just days away from the opening kickoff on Wednesday, September 5, 2012. The Super Bowl champion Giants are set to host the Dallas Cowboys. Before we can into the analysis for the game, remember to sign up for the pick ’em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. It’s a great way to track your record throughout the season and to compete against other readers of THE PASS RUSH and me.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-4)

I like the Giants in this one at home. The Giants had the Cowboys number last season. The Giants beat the Cowboys in the final week of the season for the NFC East Title 31-14. Eli Manning picked the Cowboys secondary apart throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs. That is exactly why the Cowboys acquired CB Brandon Carr in free agency and drafted CB Morris Claiborne. Victor Cruz did most of the damage in that final game with 6 receptions for 178 yards.

In the team’s previous contest in Dallas, the Giants escaped with a 37-34 win, again doing it with their passing game. Eli Manning threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have only beaten the Giants once in the last 3 years, so the Giants hold a 5-1 record against the Cowboys in their last 6 games and have covered the spread in each win. The only game they didn’t cover was their 33-20 loss on November 14, 2010, when the Cowboys won the turnover battle.

There are some injuries to take into consideration. There’s about a 90% chance that Jason Witten sits this game out. Miles Austin is listed as questionable. …

We have a rematch of Super Bowl XLII where the Giants upset the Patriots as 7-point underdogs. The Giants ended the Patriots dreams of an undefeated season that game. The Giants also defeated the Patriots again this year in week 9. It’s safe to say that the Giants have the Patriots number.

This is a tough game for me to get excited about. It’s going to be a great game, no doubt, but I don’t have a team that I want to see win. As an Eagles fan, I certainly don’t want to see the Giants claim a second Super Bowl victory within the last four years. It’s also equally difficult to want to see the Patriots win even if it’s over a division rival. The Patriots Super Bowl XXIX win over the Eagles has me also hating on the Pats equally.

If I had to list my top five least favorite teams, the Patriots, Giants, Steelers, and Cowboys are all in the top five. I’m not going to go into any analysis here, but just going to throw out a hunch. I like the Giants chances in this one and would pick them if it wasn’t for one key factor. It’s tough to beat the same team twice in the same season and in back-to-back Super Bowl matchups (albeit that it was four years ago). I think you see the Pats top the Giants in a close one. I’m being bias here since I just want the Giants to lose.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

Thanks to everyone participating in our pick ’em league. This season has come down to the wire. Yours truly ended up in 6th place out …

HOUSTON TEXANS (+7.5) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

I think you go points here. The Texans defense should be able to keep the Texans in this game. Both defenses give up an average of 17 PPG. Both offenses score about 24 PPG. This is a very even matchup. I think this spread should be more like +4.5. Houston is giving up just 85.7 rushing yards per game in their last 3. I think you see the Texans hold the Ravens to a touchdown or less. But then again, you’re asking for a lot from T.J. Yates against the Ravens defense in the playoffs.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Texans +7.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5)

I’m an Eagles fan, you think I’m going to take the Giants? Aaron Rodgers baby!

Prediction: Packers 38 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -7.5 (Confidence: 3/5)…