PHILLIPS’ WEEK 9 COLLEGE UNDERDOG PLAYS

We got back on track last week going 3-1 with +6 units of profit. We are 25-16 which is about 61%. This week we look to continue the impressive run and I think I have some picks that may shock you.

1. Boise State at San Jose State (+7.5) (This game is on Friday Night): There are a number of angles/reasons for playing this game. (1) Let me start by asking you this, who is in first place in the WAC conference? San Jose State is the answer with a perfect 3-0 record. BS is second with a 2-0 record. (2) Why is the #12 ranked team in the nation only favored by a TD over a school that many people know very little about? The oddsmakers must know that SJS is a little better then what most people think and they know that with a line much higher than 7 the smart betters would be pounding SJS. Remember an oddmaker’s goal is not to predict the winner, but to get even money on both teams so that Vegas gets their 10% cut. (3) Stats: SJS’s defense is very solid giving up less than 200 yards passing per and less than 50 yards rushing per game (that isn’t a typo, less than 50 yards rushing, that is simply sick). This is probably the best defense Boise State will see for the rest of the year. It will take a great defensive effort to stop the high powered offense of Boise State, but I think they will be up to the challenge at home. SJS has covered the last two at home vs. Boise State. Take the points. (Rating +2) Boise St 33 SJS 16

2. Mississippi vs. Arkansas (+5): This should be a very tight game as statistically neither teams holds a real advantage. The only real advantage is Arkansas’s pass defense is pretty solid allowing less than 200 yards per, otherwise things are about even. Arkansas has dominated this series recently going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 and 5-1 in the last 6. I have to believe this game will be close so I will take the points. (Rating +1) Mis. 23 Ark. 20

3. Oklahoma at Kansas State (+19.5): This game will come down to the defense of Kansas State b/c KSt’s offense is pretty solid and should be able to put some points on the board, but the question is how many will OK put on the board. KSt plays much better at home going 3-1, while only going 1-2 on the road. KSt always plays Ok tough at home. They have not been beat by more than 10 points at home by Ok in the last 10 years. While OK is pretty much a lock to win, KSt still should be able to keep this game reasonably close. Take the points. (Rating +2) Ok. 58 KSt 35

4. S. Florida at Louisville (+4.5): S. Florida has a solid football team and growing football program. However, Louisville is also a solid team that generally comes through with a big home win just about every year over a ranked team. S. Florida is 3-0 on the road, but they simply haven’t played anyone that tough this year. Their biggest wins have come against Kansas at home and Pitt at home. S. Florida is a terrible 0-7 ATS verse teams with winning records. While Louisville is a solid 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records at home. Simply put they come to play at home verse tough teams. This is a conference game that the Cardinals must win. This should be battle and a great game to watch. I like Louisville to win this game outright, but take the points to be safe. (Rating +2) S.Fl. 20 UL 24

5. Penn State at Ohio State (+2.5): I am just not convinced that PSU is the best team in the Big Ten. While I am a Michigan fan and by law I cannot root for Ohio State, I think this is a great spot for a big win. Look back over the past few years and no matter how bad Ohio State has played they have found ways to win the games they need to win to get back into the National Title hunt and with a win here they will be back in that picture. Ohio State is 5-0 SU at home, but 0-4 ATS at home, but they haven’t been underdogs at home in a long time. Ohio State holds edges in several categories that are important if an underdog is going to cover or win the game: OSU holds the edge in time of possession and causing turnovers. OSU’s defense is allowing only 265 yards per game, which is rock solid at any level. Another stat, that may be pointless, but seems interesting is that PSU scores more points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of their games while OSU’s defense is virtually a shutdown defense during those same two quarters. Pryor has taken over this offense and seems to be on a roll. PSU is 0-6 ATS over the last 6 vs. OSU and the home team is 9-1 ATS the spread over the last 10. Look for OSU’s defense to come up big and help OSU pull the small upset. (Rating +2) PSU 13 OSU 6