NFL Week 7 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

LOTS OF GREEN FOR 1:00!

I’m going to try to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

LAST MINUTE UPDATES: DT Tommy Harris is out for the Bears, that’s a big blow to their defense.  Richard Seymour is questionable with an illness.  If he’s out, I’m more confident in that Jets pick.  Seymour was the standout on the Raiders D last week.  Trent Edwards is out for the Bills, so I’m like the Panthers -7 pick a bit more.  The Panthers get to pick on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bengals terrible backup from last year.  There is rain in the forecast for the SD/KC and NO/MIA games, that gives KC +5 and MIA +6.5 a slight advantage, but I still like SD and NO to cover.  I forgot to mention that the NE/TB game is in London.  With the high spread, you might want to pass on this game since the long flight may make the Pats play flat.  GB -9 over CLE is still probably the best game to take for your money.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -9 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The spread on this game wasn’t released when I wrote up my picks, but read Brandon’s reasons for taking the Packers in the comments section.  This game is tied for my favorite game of the week along with Colts -13.5.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Browns 3

Free Pick: Packers -9 (Confidence: 5/5) (W)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This was the first spread I saw on my screen and I was pretty stunned.  The Chargers are usually a 9-10 point favorite when facing the Chiefs.  I don’t know why the Chargers are getting such a favorable spread.  Last week’s loss against the Broncos helps them earn get a lower number and their 2-3 record indicates some weakness, but there 3 losses come to the Broncos, Steelers, and Ravens, all playoff caliber teams.  The Chiefs are still the Chiefs.  They allow too many points and can’t score enough.  They only beat the Redskins and the Redskins stink!  I like the Chargers here.  Philip Rivers will have a heck of a football game and look for LT  to make a statement.

Prediction: Chargers 27 – Chiefs 17

Free Pick: Chargers -5 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -13.5 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Peyton Manning is playing as good as he was during his 2 MVP years.  Don’t let the Rams covering against the Jaguars discourage you from taking this game.  Colts are leaps and bounds ahead of the Jaguars.  The Jags offensive and defense numbers are in the bottom 10, whereas the Colts are in the top 5 in most offensive and defensive categories.  The Rams are still 27th against the pass and the Colts are 1st in passing yards.  I think that’s all that needs to be said.  Remember the Packers beating up on the Rams 36-17?  I expect a similar outcome, but with less points score by the Rams.  Manning will make this game look like a tune-up game against a high school team.

Prediction: Colts 38 – Rams 6

Free Pick: Colts -13.5 (Confidence: 4.5/5) (W)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5

Tough game to call with the spread.  You have two outstanding teams.  Neither one has a clear edge on either side of the ball.  Not a great game to bet on.  I will lean towards saying the Steelers win in a close one, by 3 or 4 points, so I’m picking Vikings with the points.  If the Vikings get the ball and score first, it will be like having an 8-12 point lead factoring in the spread.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Vikings 17

Free Pick: Vikings +5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -15 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Eagles covered 15 against the Bucs at home, so I’m not too concerned with the high spread since the Bucs have an awful defense and they have a rookie QB who hasn’t proven anything yet other than the fact that he’s still developing.  Bucs are allowing 28 PPG which is 29th in the league and are ranked 27th in yards allowed.  I’ll go with the guy who is capable of throwing 5 TDs in 1 quarter.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Bucs 10

Free Pick: Patriots -15 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ers @ HOUSTON TEXANS -3

The Texans have been a bad team to bet on or against since they’re simply unpredictable.  Their passing game has been on fire, but they’ll face a very, very tough defense off a bye week.  I expect this game to be nutty and expect anything to happen.  I see this game going into OT or coming down to a field goal in the last second of the game.

Prediction: Texans 23 – 49ers 20

Free Pick: I say this game pushes, I’m staying away. Pass.

NEW YORK JETS -6.5 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

During the last 3 weeks, I’ve lost all faith in the Jets.  Sanchez is playing like a rookie.  The one good thing the Jets have going for them is their defense, which will likely hold the Raiders to under 13 points.  The Raiders typically score about 6 points.  Their 13 points last week came from a fluke Zach Miller 87-yard TD.  The Raiders D also came alive last week, attacking an Eagles offensive line which had 4 starters on the sideline.  With a solid Jets offensive line, I don’t expect the Raiders to have the same luck this week.  The Eagles offensive line was clearly the story last week and I don’t expect that to be the case this week.  I say the Jets cover comfortably, but I’m now weary of those East coast teams having to travel out west to play, so what was a 4/5 game, I now give a 3.5.

Prediction: Jets 23 – Raiders 6

Free Pick: Jets -6.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

BUFFALO BILLS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -7

I don’t like this game at all.  Both teams are pretty bad, so I don’t like the Bills at +7 or the Panthers at -7.  The spread should be Panthers -4.5, in my opinion, so take that for what it’s worth, but I’m passing on this one.  Panthers running game has finally gotten going, so that have that going for them.

Update: With Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the start for the Bills since Trent Edwards is out, I don’t see how the Bills offense will be able to do anything.  With the Panthers at home coming off 2 wins, it should be an easy win for their football team this week.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Bills 13

Free Pick: Panthers -7 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (L)

CHICAGO BEARS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -1

I told you to take the Texans +4.5 against the Bengals last week and that one panned out pretty well.  Both teams were pretty flat last week, so I don’t know what to do here.  I think the Bears are the better team, so I’ll take them to win here.

Prediction: Bears 23 – Bengals 17

Free Pick: Bears +1 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -6.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Saints offense seems unstoppable, but the Dolphins have been playing at a very high level lately and of course have the “at home off a bye week” advantage that I always like to talk about when making my picks.  If the Saints could blow out a Super Bowl contender like the Giants, I don’t see any reason why the Dolphins should give them problems.  The Saints D has been one of the better defensive units this year, so I think they can contain the wild cat.  The Dolphins D is only strong against the run and not as good against the pass, so I expect 75% of New Orleans play calls to be throws, which Brees will have no problem with.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Saints -6.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

The Cowboys are another home team off the bye week, but the Falcons are far from an easy win here.  I love the way Matt Ryan is playing and he and Roddy White are finally clicking.  The Falcons D is also playing with a lot of fire.  The Cowboys are a bit overrated, in my opinion.  I’m an Eagles fan and naturally hate the Cowboys, so I want them to lose every week, which is affecting my judgment, but I’m leaning towards taking the points here, but this may be just wishful thinking on my part.  I like taking the points since the Falcons can score and have a hell of a defense.  I’m anticipating a close game and a Cowboys win by a mere FG seems likely.

Prediction: Cowboys 23 – Falcons 20

Free Pick: Falcons +4 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -7

Hell of a Sunday Night game.  The Cardinals have been a hard team to figure out.  They alternate weeks of impressing me and disappointing me.  The Giants are coming off a tough loss, but they still have one of the top defenses in the league and Eli Manning is playing at an extraordinary level.  I’m tempted to say take the points, since these teams should be poised to exchange blows, but with the Giants 3rd ranked offense and 1st ranked passing D, I think you have to stick with the home team here and not get too worried about what Fitzy can do.  It’s not a spread worth taking in, but for the sake of picking the game, I’ll say go with the Giants.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Cardinals 20

Free Pick: Giants -7 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

After the Eagles disaster against the Raiders, I find it hard to recommend giving up 7 points to take them here.  It’s a tough division game and the Redskins defense is tough.  The Redskins offense is just dismal though, so don’t expect the Redskins to score much, if at all.  I would pass on this game and keep a close eye on the Eagles offensive line.  Last week the injury to Jason Peters is what hurt them since Richard Seymour gave the Eagles back up a hard time.  The good news is that the Eagles may have Todd Herremans back to plug in to sure up the LT spot.  The Eagles D is still playing outstanding and with a weak Redskins offense, they shouldn’t let up many points.

Prediction: Eagles 20 – Redskins 10

Free Pick: Eagles -7 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

TOP 7 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

Don’t follow me like sheep since last week the Steelers and Eagles got banged up, but the good news is that the spreads in the top 7 this week aren’t that high with the exception of the Colts and Patriots.  I don’t like the fact that I’m taking 6 road teams, but as you can see, I’m sticking with my year-long thesis of going after the weaker teams in the league (Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, Lions, and Browns).

1.) Packers -9 over BROWNS (W)

2.) Colts -13.5 over RAMS (W)

3.) Chargers -5 over CHIEFS (W)

4.) PANTHERS -7 over Bills (L)

5.) Patriots -15 over BUCS (W)

6.) Saints -6.5 over DOLPHINS (W)

7.) Jets -6.5 over RAIDERS (W)