Tonight’s Giants vs. Colts Pick

I guess you can’t win ’em all. While we won our two big games this week thanks to Green Bay and Atlanta, the Pats busted a nice 4-team teaser that I hit the first 3 picks on. You can’t say we didn’t warn you. I even called the Pats pick a “suckers pick” and that the game was on upset alert.  Looks like I’m the sucker. I also said don’t bet against home dogs and that saved you from taking the Ravens.  I should have listened to my own advice. What are you going to do? We still cleaned up with the rest of them. If I substituted the Pats, I probably would have went Panthers +3.5 and that wouldn’t have worked out either. I’ll take my winnings from the last four days and keep on trucking.

The Jets are another irritating team to try to bet on or against thanks to the inconsistent Mark Sanchez. Last week he plays like Ryan Leaf. This week he plays like Tom Brady while Tom Brady plays like him. Thankfully, sports books were so slammed at 4:00 that I couldn’t even put more on the Pats. Good dodge. Should have also stuck with Chargers instead of flipping on that one, but I gave it a 1/5 and said don’t play it. A lot of people were all over the Jags (+8) after Garrard had a nice game against Denver, but he threw 4 picks in this one.

Tonight there has been significant line movement with money pouring in on the Giants. The line opened at Giants (+5.5) and is now (+4). Will the Colts win? Probably. Will it be close? Likely. Can the Giants pull off the upset and win? I think it could happen. The Colts are at home where they were 7-1 ATS last year. However, they sucked against the run last week and the Giants can run the football. I’m expecting Jacobs and Bradshaw get the best of the Colts D who is without Bob Sanders. Once the Colts focus on the run, Eli Manning opens it up in the passing game. Colts should get their fair share of points, but Giants have a great pass rush and should force the Colts into some punting situations. Aaron Ross, Hakeem Nicks, and Osi Umenyiora will be active for Giants. Those are three key players the Giants will now have. Not only is Sanders out, but Mathis and Bracket are questionable. Injury report favors Giants here.

I like the Giants and I like the over, especially after looking at these trends. The last time the Manning brothers faced each other, it was a 26-21 game. I’m expecting another close battle just like the last one so I’m favoring the points.

Colts/Giants Betting Trends

• Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
• Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win.
• Giants are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games in September.
• Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 12-3-1 in Giants last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 road games.
• Over is 12-3-2 in Giants last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games overall.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Colts 23

Tonight’s Play: Giants +4 or Teaser Giants +11, Over 41