NFL Week 3 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread (1:00 Games)

Do I have your attention?

Last week we hit our top 2 plays in Green Bay (-13) and Atlanta (-6.5). Why did we hit these? Because we looked for the best home teams to take and of course stayed away from betting against home dogs. Although the public was all over the Patriots, Ravens, Eagles, and Saints, they all failed to cover the spread against the home dog. We hopefully kept you away from those sucker picks and steared you in the right direction with Green Bay and Atlanta. Although, I was the sucker who added Pats (+4) to my teaser which I hit 3/4 on. “If the Patriots lose this one, it’ll be by less than 4,” right? Wrong. Don’t bet against home dogs.

Here are my week 3 NFL picks against the spread. We’re doing things differently this week, we’re splitting the picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. 4:00 games come out tomorrow, so be sure to return for those.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)

Atlanta looked hot at home last week, but struggled on the road against a tough Pittsburgh defense. This just goes to show you how important home field advantage is or maybe the Cardinals are truly horrific. The Saints haven’t scored points in prolific fashion like last year, but they’ve faced the Vikings and 49ers. That’s excusable. The Falcons D must be respected. They’re a good squad. This one looks to be close with the spread and I really think you’ll end up pushing here. Should be a great game to watch. This and Cowboys/Texans is what will have my attention this week at 1:00.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Falcons 23

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (-2.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

We’ll be able to test our “home dog” theory this week. The Chiefs offense has been anemic which is why I’ll the 49ers here even as a home dog. The Chiefs points in the Chargers came from some lucky turnovers, special teams, and a broken run. With a tough 49ers front seven that can stop Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs will struggle to find points. I like the under 36.5 here although it’s a really low number. Unless the Chiefs catch some breaks like they did on week 1 which was totally due to the “Monday Night factor,” I don’t see them scoring double digits on the Niners.

Prediction: 49ers 17 – Chiefs 6

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers -2.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5); Under 36.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-13)

The Vikings have no business being 11-point favorites in this one, in my humble opinion. Their offense has been absolutely horrific. Stafford has a chance of returning this week, but I don’t see it happening just yet. Regardless of his status, the Lions offense was productive last week thanks to Jahvid Best, so I like them here getting 11. Best is a remarkable back. Perhaps a Chris Johnson in the making. I don’t see the Vikings putting up more than 24 points despite how bad the Lions defense may be. Lions defense is definitely getting better and with the offseason additions they made (Suh and Vanden Bosch), they’ve been able to dial up some pressure on opposing QBs which will be a major problem for old man Favre. Due to the Vikings offensive woes, if the Lions manage just 13-17 points, which they should be able to score, I think they cover. The 1st Half Lions (+7) line also looks good.

Prediction: Vikings 24 – Lions 17

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +13 (Confidence: 3/5), Lions +7 1st Half (Confidence: 3/5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5)

The Cowboys are in a huge funk. They fell short against the Redskins and then got embarrassed in their home opener against the Bears. People are catching onto the Texans, who had an amazing comeback win against Redskins after upsetting the Colts. I think it’s safe to bet against the Cowboys until they prove they have their act together. Although it’s just a short distance away, with the Texans at home, I’m confident that they’ll be able to come out on top and cover in comfortable fashion. I would make this pick worthy of a 4/5, but can the Cowboys, a team many thought would play in the Super Bowl, start 0-3? Are they “due for a win”? That’s up to you, but I’ll take the Texans.

Prediction: Texans 31 – Cowboys 24

Pick Against the Spread: Texans -2.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)

How bad were the Giants last week? That was just a horrific loss if you are a Giants fan. As an Eagles fan, I found pleasure in it despite making a small play on the Giants getting +11 with the over thinking the Colts run D would get lit up again. Good thing I picked the Steelers last week too as a lot of people were taking the Titans. I’m expecting the Giants to return to their normal selves when they return home, but I’m not ready to take them with last week’s loss still fresh in my head. The Giants also have a lot of key defensive players listed as questionable (Justin Tuck, Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips). You’ll want to check their status before gametime. If they’re out, those are some substantial losses to their defense.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Titans 20

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-14.5)

Run it up Bill! Run it up! After the Patriots loss last week, they’ll want to absolutely steamroll over the meager Bills this week to boost team morale. The Pats usually play very well when pissed off, which is why it may be worth it to take a shot on a high spread. The Bills offense absolutely sucks.  I don’t see the Bills scoring more than 10 points here, so I’m not worried with the high spread. High spreads suck though, so proceed with caution. I see the Pats winning by at least 21.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Bills 10

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -14.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVEN (-11)

Seeing these spreads back-to-back, I like a teaser of Patriots (-7) if that line comes down a half-point with Ravens (-4). I’ll even take Pats (-7.5). Looks like a great winning combo with two great home teams against weak opponents. I’ll even take Ravens (-11). The Browns lost to the Chiefs last week at home and to the Bucs on the road. The Browns couldn’t have had an easier start and they’re 0-2. You’ll see this Ravens offense come alive after they’re been tested by the Jets and Bengals tough D’s. When they face the Browns, things will seem incredibly easy for them and their offense will really show up and show everyone what those offseason additions can do for them. Ray Rice fantasy owners will be loving their pick in this one.

Prediction: Ravens 30  – Browns 6

Pick Against the Spread: Ravens -11 (Confidence: 4/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

We have another game to test our home dog theory. Everyone is jumping at the Steelers. Did they forget that Dennis Dixon, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberg all can’t play for the Steelers or is everyone confident in Charlie Batch? Does a QB even matter against the Bucs? Do people think Charlie Batch can get the job done with the Steelers run game and strong defense? Considering that the Chiefs beat the Steelers last year when the Steelers were on the road last year when they had Ben Roethlisberger, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs won. The Bucs were able to top the Panthers on the road and actually looked pretty good in that game. The -2.5 spread is going to tease a lot of people into taking the Steelers here. It’s tempting, even with Batch at QB, but I’m going to pass because you know why: home dog. How about this proposition? If the Bucs beat the Steelers this week and the Chiefs beat the 49ers, play every home dog in the NFL for the rest of the year until further notice. Oh yeah! I’m taking the Bucs in the pick ’em league and passing on it with my money. Please note: I have a vested interest in the Steelers losing because I made a bet with a friend (an awful Steelers fan) in the beginning of the year that the Eagles would finish ahead of the Steelers in the standings. Therefore, this pick is 110% bias. Under 33.5 looks good. I don’t see this one topping 20-13, but the number is extremely low to make it a great bet.

Prediction: Buccaneers 13 – Steelers 10

Pick Against the Spread: Bucs +3 (Confidence: 0/5). You can wait to get this one when the line moves to Bucs +4 by game time if you want to test out the home-dog theory. Bucs +4 (Confidence: 1/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

How interesting. Another home dog. However, I think if there’s one home dog who can win and cover this week, it will be the Bengals.  Strong win against the Ravens last week.  Their defense showed up after letting the Bengals down against the Patriots. The Panthers were a mess in their loss to the Giants and were embarrassed in their home opener against the lowly Buccaneers. With the type of defense the Bengals are capable of having, I see the Panthers offense getting shut down while the Bengals cruise to an easy victory.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

CONCLUSION

It looks like an easier week this week than last week. Home teams are the key. Ravens (-11), Texans (-2.5), and Patriots (-14.5) are my top 3 home teams to take at 1:00. If you want points, Lions (+13) is my play. We’re going to remain cautious betting against home dogs, but two home dog that I do like betting against this week are the Bengals (-3) over the Panthers followed by 49ers (-2.5) over Chiefs.  A In all other games, I am passing. If you see the Bucs top the Steelers, you know the home dog is at a minimum, an 70-75% winner this season. Any stat guys want to check home dogs records ATS this season?  I think it’s something like 8-3-2 (.727) this season. I’m not joking.

By the way, I’m breaking up picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games with Sunday and Monday Night plays to be released before gametime.

Check back for the 4:00 plays tomorrow.

Good luck gentlemen.

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