Week 3 NFL Predictions and Picks Against the Spread (4:00 Games)

Tom Brady: "Iceman (sniff, sniff), you stink."

I’m trying out something new this week and that’s breaking up my picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. We covered 1:00 games yesterday, let’s see what’s good at 4:00.  We have 4 more home dogs coming up at 4:00, so the home dog theory is in full effect this week. Let’s see how it works out in week 3. I’m picking against all of them which may make me look like a genius or idiot. We shall see. I’m not sure if any are worth a shot for my money, but you’ll have to decide on that. Proceed with caution gentlemen. This time slot’s theme? TOP GUN. Highway to the Danger Zone music video is after the jump for your enjoyment.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

You see over and over again, absurdly low spreads when road teams are favored. Why is this? To sucker people like you in. Everyone is going to be taking the Redskins here. How can you not like the Skins against the Rams, right? They have a very good defense. Sure that gave up 30 the Texans including 20 in the second half, but the Texans are a top 5 offense in the NFL thanks to Andre Johnson, who had 12 receptions for 158 yards in that contest. I can understand the books expecting the Redskins to come out flat after last week’s tough loss, but I expect Donovan McNabb to pick apart the Rams defense while the Rams’ Sam Bradford struggles against a typically tough defense. Bradford has posted QB ratings of 53 and 86 so far this year and has 3 TDs to 4 INTs, but really should only have 3 INTs as one came on a hail mary in the Cardinals game in the final seconds of the game. Bradford’s YPA has been kept under 7.0 too. The Rams should score 13-14 points just like they did in the first two weeks. The Redskins will score at least 20, right? I think so. I’m going Redskins and I like the play despite the home dog hyperbole.

Prediction: Redskins 24 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: Redskins -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I’m an Eagles fan so I’m 100% confident that they’ll win and cover. Vick is the man and will have those Eagles rolling. I better see a better defensive effort from the Birds though as they gave up 32 points to the Lions at the hands of Jahvid Best. Keep all 22 eyes on MJD and they should be just fine.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Jaguars 20

Pick Against the Spread: Eagles -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5) @ DENVER BRONCOS

So it looks like the Colts finally found their pass rush. That’s what happens when you play at home. Broncos rolled over the Seahawks at home last week, but that doesn’t surprise me. Seahawks were last year’s worst road team ATS posting a 1-7 record ATS. The Colts? Well they happened to be the best road team last year ATS, posting an 7-1 record against the spread. Without any semblance of pressure from the Broncos D, Manning should have all the time in the world to pick apart the Broncos. Kyle Orton was great last week. He’ll have another heroic effort, but I think he comes up short.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Broncos 20

Pick Against the Spread: Colts -5.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-4) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks follow up a route over the 49ers at home with getting routed by Denver on the road. They play well at home, awful on the road. I’ll be curious to see how well they do against the Chargers who steamrolled over the Jags last week despite a lot of people jumping on the Jags getting +8. Rivers was 22/29 for 334 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Nice stat line. Chargers also picked off Garrard 4 times. I’m not impressed with the Seahawks at all. Their week 1 victory was pure luck. Chargers roll. I just picked against 4 home dogs. Don’t like doing that, but we’ll see how that one ends up at around 7:30. I just don’t see it going any other way. I’m not making any of these picks worthy of a 4/5 rating though and I don’t see myself betting on any of them. Just a heads up.

Prediction: Chargers 30 – Seahawks 17

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-4.5)

This is the Cardinals home opener and the Raiders have been terrible. Jason Campbell hasn’t lived up to expectations and Bruce Gradkowski will be the starter. With the Cardinals back at home after two road games, plus the addition of Beanie Wells to their offense, I think they definitely win this one. A 3 or 4 point victory isn’t totally out of question, so the Raiders have  shot at covering if their D steps up. Derek Anderson has been horrendous though, passing 53-54% in both games with QB ratings of 85 and 45. The Cardinals manage just 17 against the Rams and 7 against the Falcons. I’ll pick the Cards, but I just have no confidence in them with their shoddy play at QB and poor defensive effort last week.

Prediction: Cardinals 23 – Raiders 16

Pick Against the Spread: Cardinals -4.5 (Confidence: 1/5)

CONCLUSION

I’m not crazy about the 4:00 games. There’s a bunch of home dogs that I think won’t cover and the spreads make it very tempting. We can definitely use this week as an experimental week to evaluate the strength of home dogs for the remainder of the season. I say that you’ll see covers from Redskins (-3.5), Chargers (-5.5), Colts (-5.5) and Eagles (-3). We’ll see how many of those cover. If you want to put your money on them, that’s your call, but be warned of the home dog.

Highway to the Danger Zone