NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread (4:00 Games)

Posted by Vegas Martin in NFL Picks on September 30th, 2010 | Comment »

Michael Vick has returned to being a superstar.

We’re back with our 4:00 picks. If you saw yesterday’s week 4 1:00 picks you saw that I’m high on the Atlanta Falcons (-7) over the San Fransisco 49ers. I also like the Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over the Denver Broncos, but I took some flak on that pick. The spread is steep and Kyle Orton has been as good as any QB in the league this year. You say Kyle Orton and I say Courtland Finnegan and Michael Griffin. Onto the week 4 picks.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I took the Eagles last week and took them pretty big so it was a glorious win for me and it was also great to see Michael Vick just dominate (highlights at the end). The popular pick here is the Colts seeing how they bounced back after their Texans loss with two double-digit wins over the Giants and Broncos. Everyone is going to think that they can do it again. I’m slightly hesitant because the Jags always keep it close with the Colts. Last year the Colts vs. Jags games were 35-31 and 14-12. Garrard is playing like crap though with a 66.7 QB rating on the year and Maurice Jone-Drew has been locked up and hasn’t seen the end zone once this year (true story). The Jags have also given up a ton of points. They generate zero pass rush and they can’t cover. That spells disaster if you’re playing Peyton Manning. I’m expecting Manning to have a field day here while the Jaguars continue to struggle to find points. Jags are the home dog and maybe they’re due to “bounce back,” but I don’t see it happening. This Jaguars team just isn’t as good as years past. Jags averaging 13 PPG and giving up 27 PPG, that’s exactly where I expect this score to end up. I’ll take the Colts.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Jaguars 13

Pick Against the Spread: Colts -7 (Confidence: 3/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Are you ready for it? I’m going to take the home dog Oakland Raiders here just to have my moment of picking against the “public.” However, this is on the sole condition that Andre Johnson is ruled out. He is questionable. The Raiders D is coming together despite what the scores tell you. They’re averaging 100 less yards allowed per game than they were last year. Also keep in mind that 7 of the Cardinals points came via the opening kickoff, so really, the Cardinals offense was held to 17 points at home. Get this one. The Raiders are 3rd in total defense and 2nd against the pass. With Johnson out, I’ll count on Asomugha to shut down half of the field while Richard Seymour and Rolando McClaim focus on stopping Arian Foster. Darren McFadden has gotten off to a hell of a start too. Bruce Gradkowski should also get into maybe a mid 80’s passer rating from his typical 70’s QB rating as the Texans are last in the league against the pass. I bet against the grain and took a dog. Are we happy now? Keep in mind this pick is only good as long as Andre Johnson is ruled OUT. There is a reason this spread is so low.

Prediction: Raiders 20 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Raiders +3 (Confidence: 1/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8)

The Chargers were impressive in their home route over the Jaguars, but they just can’t play on the road. This is an important game for them since the Chargers don’t want to drop to 1-3. I think there’s no question that they win this game, but can they cover the high spread? Do they come out by 3, 4, or 7 in this one? I think the Chargers should route the Cardinals a la Atlanta Falcons style. Derek Anderson is completing 52% of his passes on the year and had just 122 passing yards last week. His passer ratings were 42 and 69 in the last two weeks. He stinks pretty bad. The Cardinals are pretty bad despite their 2-1 record. They rank near the bottom of the league in every category. I say the Chargers come out on top by at least 10.

Prediction: Chargers 30 – Cardinals 16

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -8 (Confidence: 3/5)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5.5)

So much for me playing up Washington’s D in the first few weeks. Despite all the talented players they have, their defense is dead last in the league giving up 423 yards per game. It’s the pass that they’re struggling with. However, those numbers are skewed since Matt Schaub burned them for 497 passing yards in week 2. But how in the world does a defense like the Skins give up 30 points to the Rams? The Rams put up 365 yards against them. The Rams! Everyone knows the Eagles are my team so I’m taking them. Vick is playing out of his mind and he’s bringing a swagger to that team. However, if you’re one for the points, you’re going to talk up “revenge game” for McNabb. We’ll see what happens. I’ll stand by my birds.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Redskins 17

Pick Against the Spread: Eagles -5.5 (Confidence: 4/5) * Pick is 110% bias as I’m an Eagles fan.

CONCLUSION

I think you can pick between Colts (-7), Eagles (-5.5), or Chargers (-8) at the 4:00 spot. I took too much flack for picking too many favorites. I just don’t see it going the other way, although you know you’re going to see some teams cover this week. I decided to go against the grain and take Raiders (+3) at home if Andre Johnson is out. The Raiders defense is coming together and the Texans D has been struggling. We’ll see what happens. Enjoy the Vick highlights. Woof, woof bitches.