NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: 1:00 Games

NFL Week 5 Picks for 1:00 Games

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

Cleveland hosts Atlanta Sunday afternoon with both teams coming off a win. Cleveland has been one of the best teams ATS this year as well as last year. An offense lead by Matt Ryan was supposed to be the Falcons strength coming into this season, but their defense has been why they’ve won three in a row. Jake Delhomme isn’t the for sure starter yet, but he is going to have his hands full with this Falcon defense. The Falcons offense ranks sixth in the NFL averaging 389.3

Arian Foster has emerged as one of the league's best backs.

yards a game along with 23.3 points per game. Delhomme, if named the starter, had success against the Falcons last year throwing for 589 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in two games against them with Carolina. Peyton Hillis has been a key to the Browns even hanging around in all of their games, and was a huge key in their win last week against the Bengals. He is ranked 11th in the NFL against the run with 96.3 yards rushed a game.

I think Cleveland is going to come ready to play at home coming off a win. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, and 7-1 in their last eight as a dog. Peyton Hillis is going to have another big game going over 100 yards rushing with at least one touchdown.

Prediction: Falcons 21 – Browns 20

Pick Against the Spread: Browns +3

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Ravens are coming off a huge win against the Steelers in Week Four. The Ravens have the #1 defense when it comes to yards per game only giving up 247.5. The Ravens running game led my Ray Rice isn’t doing too hot. Rice has yet to score a touchdown this season! On the other hand, the Broncos are averaging a league leading 354.8 passing yards a game. After a 6-0 start for the Broncos last year, they faced Baltimore going for their seventh straight and got annihilated 30-7. Denver went 2-7 for the remainder of the season. Denver better not even think about putting the ball on the ground on Sunday, through four games they’ve only totaled 220 rushing yards, and only 19 against Tennessee last week. That’s horrible.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these two teams, and the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four in Baltimore.

Prediction: Ravens 31 – Broncos 17

Pick Against the Spread: Baltimore -7

New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-3)

The Giants, coming off a win against Chicago, hopes to start a winning streak coming to Houston. They actually sit in first place in the NFC East. The Giants have the third best overall defense in the NFL. Their defense has been key in their two wins thus far. Houston, however, is very offense oriented. Not so much their passing, but their rushing game is what has been getting them any success. Might as well just call it the Arian Foster show. The Texans have the worst defense in the NFL, even though they are ranked third in rush defense. Brian Cushing returns to the Texans defense.

Although the Giants haven’t been all too impressive on the road, I see them taking advantage of the Texans weak defense and being able to make a couple stops late in the game to seal the victory. I like the Giants outright.

Prediction: Giants 34 – Texans 31

Pick Against the Spread: Giants +3

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Chicago is coming off a loss due to the fact the offensive line couldn’t protect Jay Cutler. Therefore, Cutler will be out for Sunday’s game for the first time since acquired by the Bears. The Bears allowed Cutler to get sacked nine times in the first half! Todd Collins took the place of Cutler and would eventually leave the game due to injury, and he was replaced by Caleb Hanie. Collins will start on Sunday against the Panthers. They will have a big change this week though shifting from the Giants pass defense, over to the Panthers, who have the second worst pass defense in the league. With Peppers leaving Carolina and joining Chicago, the defense has only gotten worse. The Panthers look to start Jimmy Clausen Sunday. They have scored five touchdowns and committed 13 turnovers, not the start one looks for.

The last four regular season meetings between these two teams has ended with the home team coming out victorious in each. Carolina won the last matchup 20-17 in 2008. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a small home dog. The Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Carolina.

Collins will choke under the pressure of being on the road with little experience. Carolina gets a huge win.

Prediction: Panthers 17 – Bears 14

Pick Against the Spread: Carolina +2.5

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3)

Here we have a match-up of two teams that combined for three wins last year. While the Rams hunt for a possibly playoff berth, the Lions are still seeking out a win this season, coming very close last week losing to Green Bay 28-26. St. Louis came out on top last year winning 17-10. The Rams look to win three in a row and haven’t done so since they won the last three games of the 2006 season. The Lions have lost three of their four games by a combined ten points. They really could be 3-1 and contending for first place. The replacement for Stafford, Shaun Hill, threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns last week against Green Bay. What is hurting Detroit are their eight turnovers and 30 penalties over the past three weeks. They have their hands full with St. Louis who loves forcing turnovers, forcing 10 which is fifth in the NFL. Sam Bradford has had a great rookie year for the Rams. He passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns, similar stats to Hill, last weekend.

The Rams are 3-0 ATS when a road dog of 0.5-3.0 points. The Lions lose another one Sunday.

Prediction: Rams 24 – Lions 21

Pick Against the Spread: Rams +3

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins

Green Bay travels to Washington and faces the worst pass defense in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers attempted the fewest amount of throws last week against the Lions. The Packers offense did not score a point in the second half of that contest. Washington’s defense has allowed 305 yards per game, second worst in the NFL. All of the sudden the Redskins are running the ball with success. Although Clinton Portis will be out for the next four to six weeks, him and Ryan Torain have taken a lot of pressure off of QB Donovan McNabb. Green Bay is allowed 120 rushing yards per game.

I like Washington here even without Clinton Portis. I think the offensive struggles will continue over from the second half of last week’s game against the Lions.

Prediction: Redskins 24 – Packers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Washington +2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

Cincinnati is coming off a game where they handed the Browns their first win. I mean, they didn’t play terrible. Carson Palmer threw for 371 yards and had two touchdowns. The running game must step up for them. The Buccaneers have their hands full yet again with Ochocinco, Owens, and Palmer. Tampa Bay has beat Cincinnati five straight times since 1995. The key to the Bengals offense is the running game. Look for Cedric Benson to get a lot of carries in this one. Tampa Bay will look to throw the ball a lot with their rushing game struggling big time.

I see Cincinnati winning, but not covering the spread. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Prediction: Bengals 21 – Buccaneers 17

Pick Against the Spread: Tampa Bay +6.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team remaining in the NFL without a loss. They will have their work cut out of them though when they travel to Indianapolis on Sunday. They move the ball, eat up the clock, and Matt Cassell hasn’t thrown too many ill-advised passes. Indianapolis has been exposed on both sides of the ball. They made Jacksonville look like the mastermind of the NFL. They can’t stop anybody. They are completely relying upon Peyton Manning to carry them, which he pretty much has done. They give up 149.5 yards on the ground, and they are about to face a top 5 rushing team in the Chiefs.

I see this one being very close. Colts win, but Chiefs cover. Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a dog.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Chiefs 21

Pick Against the Spread: Kansas City +7

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) @ Buffalo Bills

One key for Buffalo this week is to get better at stopping the run. They allow 174 yards on the ground per game. The Jags are absolutely full of confidence after coming off an upset win against the Colts. I don’t have much to say about this game except that if the Bills want to win, it has to be now and while they are at home. If the players have any pride left, they’ll play their ass off this game and come out with a victory. Why aren’t the Jags favored more after just beating Indianapolis and playing against a poor 0-4 Bills team? I’m going with Las Vegas here. I like the Bills.

The Jags are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. They are also 2-6 in their last eight meetings with the Bills. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Prediction: Bills 20 – Jags 17 in Overtime

Pick Against the Spread: Buffalo +1