NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Something tells me the Saints will turn up the heat in the second half of the season.

Sorry for the late picks but a terrible cold left me sidelined all week. Better late than never. I’m going to have to make this post quick (ha, that never happens), but I’ll try to get through all the games this week. Plenty of good games to take a deeper look into this week. Please help me out by voting in the poll at the end. Thanks!

NEW YORK JETS (-4) @ DETROIT LIONS

Wow! The Jets as mere 4-point favorites in this one? What are the books thinking? The books are thinking that the Lions play good ball at home. Stafford is back and threw 4 TDs against the Washington Redskins last week. The Lions D is also better than their 23.6 PPG allowed. Did you know the Lions have the 6th ranked offense in terms of points scored? The Jets put up a fat 0 last week against the Packers despite showing no signs of offensive struggles in the prior 5 weeks scoring 24+ in each game. You can expect an offensive rebound for the Jets against the Lions. I see the Lions offense finally struggling against the NFL’s best brass. Revis will need to have a big game against Calvin Johnson for the Jets to get the W against the spread. This one will be close with the spread. Think 24-20. I’m going to give the nod to the Jets here.

Prediction: Jets 26 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

TAMPA BAY BUNCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-9)

The Falcons play great ball at home. I love playing the Falcons at home as my last bet on them against Cincinnati two weeks ago was a solid win. Falcons covered the 3.5 with a 39-32 win. Why is the spread so high? Falcons are at home off the bye week. Huge factor. The Bucs are playing good ball and stand a chance at winning the division now that they’re 5-2 with their sole losses against the Steelers and Saints. I say this is too many points. Last year the score of these teams contests were 20-10 and 20-17. Falcons won both, but the Bucs know how to keep it close against the Dirty Birds. Falcons offense seems poised to score a lot of points so there definitely is a chance they blow out the Bucs. No doubt about that, but I think the odds are in your favor if you take the points since I see the Falcons coming out with a W by 4-8 points.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Bucs 20

Pick Against the Spread: Bucs +9 (Confidence: 2/5)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5)

I played the Dolphins last week against the Bengals which was a winner for me. The Dolphins have have had some bad beats this year, but they’ve been playing good ball on the road with covers on the road against the Bengals, Packers, and Vikings. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Ravens are another home team off the bye week, which gives the Ravens a slight advantage. However, I’ve been extremely disappointed with the Ravens defense. In their last game, they gave up 34 points the Bills. The Bills! And the Ravens were at home! Ravens are 3-3-1 ATS compared to the Dolphins 5-2 record. Another trend to throw out there, Ravens are 2-5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. I think we’re all expecting a close one here. These teams stats are dead even. Expect the Ravens to win by a field goal. I’ll take the points.

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Dolphins 20

Pick Against the Spread: Dolphins +5 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Another game where you’re scratching your head wondering why the spread is so low. You know you don’t want to bet against home dogs, but you can’t help yourself. This is Patriots vs. Browns! The Browns are at home off their bye week after giving it to the Saints in the dome. The Patriots have won 5 straight and I’m going to stop thinking about reasons to not take the Pats here. You know the traps here, but they will be ignored by me.

Prediction: Patriots 28 – Browns 17

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7.5)

The public is liking the points in this contest. The Cardinals and Vikings have both been huge disappointments this year. After Brett Favre looked like he was going to die on the field last week, he’s still listed as probable for this game which shocks me. This man literally wants to die on the football field. I want to take the points, but the Cardinals haven’t covered the spread in their last 3 games including getting 6.5 against the Seahawks, 10 against the Chargers, and 7 against Atlanta. They’ve been awful on the road. I’m not going to take the lackluster Vikings down 7.5 points either. This game is getting placed solely in the pass bin, but I’ll favor the points here.

Prediction: Vikings 24 – Cardinals 20

Pick Against the Spread: Cardinals +7.5 (Confidence: 1/5)

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) @ BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills have been all over the place, some weeks they look miserable and then they come out of nowhere to surprise you against good teams by covering against the Patriots and Ravens (that’s getting double digit points though). Their D is terrible as they’re giving up 30 PPG but they gave up only 13 to the Chiefs last week. Chicago is off the bye week and has a chance to regroup following their 2 losses after a hot start. They will need to shore up that offensive line to have a shot in this one. The Bills are still 0-7 and I don’t see them winning against the Bears this week. The Bears offense has been pathetic, but the good news is that they’re facing a D that gives up an average of 30 PPG.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Bills 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bears -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

No need to get into an in depth analysis here. The bottom line is that the Chargers are winless on the road and with all the injuries they’ve had, I don’t see how that changes against the Texans who are poised to put up a bunch of points in this one being led by Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. Why the hell are ther Chargers favored? Andre Johnson is probable and should play. Mario Williams also injured, but listed as probable. I would understand the line if they were absolutely ruled out. Look for the Chargers to move to 0-5 on the road. On the flip side, the Chargers desperately need to win to have any shot at the playoffs. Desperation is a stinky cologne. Let’s see how stinky it can be this week. I’ll stick with the Texans despite the desperation factor giving the Chargers a chance here. The over/under is 49.5, which is high, but we’re all expecting lots of scoring. You should tease this to Texans +10 with the over 42.5. It’ll be some extra insurance for you if you want to bet this game. Be sure to check the injury reports before betting this one.

Prediction: Houston 31 – Chargers 27

Pick Against the Spread: Houston +3 (Confidence: 3/5); Texans+10/Over 42.5 (Confidence: 4/5) * If Andre Johnson plays.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ll take the Saints. Done. The Panthers covered the 10 points when the game was in New Orelans which I actually took when the Saints were struggling against the spread early this season. I expect the Steelers win to boost the Saints confidence and for the Saints to turn up the heat in the second half of the season. I think we see the 2009 Saints in this latter half of the NFL season. The Panthers are averaging just 12 PPG. I think we’ll see the Saints score 20+ while the Panthers are held to 13, don’t you agree? Thought so. Remember when the Saints walloped the Bucs on the road? I’m thinking similar outcome.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks play good ball at home (3-0) with wins over San Fransisco, San Diego, and Arizona. However, the Seahawks are still a middle-of-the-pack team while a lot of people are favoring the Giants to come out on top in the NFC. This is a tough one to pick. 80% of the money is going on the Giants, but I need to see one more great performance from them for me to say, “OK, they’re legit.” Perhaps my skepticism is due to me being an Eagles fan. Of course I’m going to wish the Giants lose. I’m going to take the points here, but I’m not confident in the pick and I’m going to warn you that this pick is 100% bias.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Seahakws 20

Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks +7 (Confidence: 1/5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5)

As you know, I’m an Eagles fan, so I’m going to abstain from this pick. I’m shocked they’re coming out as favorites. They are home off the bye week, Vick will be back, DeSean Jackson will be back, and their Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peter will be back. I like the Eagles chances in this game, but I honestly thought they would be 3-point dogs in this one. Andy Reid is 11-0 following a bye week.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (-1)

I have been loving the Raiders this year. I’m picking them week after week and they’re hitting for me. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last 4 and I managed to pick them in their last 3. I didn’t take them against the Chargers when they covered though. Also wanted to note, they’re actually 3-1 ATS based on the early lines. To clarify, most people had the Raiders +7 against the 49ers when they lost 17-9, but the final spread movement pushed the number to 9 points, which gave the Raiders the cover. Who would have thought the 5-2 Chiefs would be facing the 4-4 Raiders at this point in the season. I think it’s safe to say that we were all expecting these teams to have a combined 5 wins — tops. The public likes the Chiefs, but I’m going to stick with the Raiders and for one reason only: home field.

Prediction: Raiders 23 – Chiefs 20

Pick Against the Spread: Raiders -1 (Confidence: 2/5)

CONCLUSION

Stay tuned for the Sunday and Monday night picks. There are a lot of road favorites on this week’s card which isn’t a good sign, but I threw that theory out the window a while ago and started pick games based on sound analysis and gut feelings. I like Jets -4, Patriots -4, Saints -6.5, Houston +3, and Chicago -3. That’s 4 road favorites, but we’ll see how that goes. You know the potential traps. You decide. Good luck gentlemen. Help me out here. Will you?

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