Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

We enjoyed an easy victory with the Packers last night to add on top of other Sunday winners (Saints and Texans/Over teaser). Tonight we have an AFC North battle, which is much tougher to gauge than last night’s Sunday Night game between Green Bay and Dallas.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

I’m not all over the Steelers like I was with the Packers yesterday. Packers was an easy pick since they were at home and the Cowboys have been terrible. Pittsburgh has to battle this one out with a division rival and that’s going to be tough. The Bengals have been terrible against the spread (2-5) while the Steelers have been decent (4-3). However, some trends are keeping me from going big on the Steelers here: Pittsburgh 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 division games and 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. They just underperform as heavy favorites. They win consistently, but in close games.

Count on Pittsburg’s run D to dominate as they’ve been holding their opponents to under 60 yards per game and limiting teams to a 2.6 yards per carry average. Will Cincy’s passing attack be able to move the chains on Pittsburgh? Pitt’s passing D gives up 243 passing yards, while the Bengals passing offense is averaging 254 passing yards. They’ll get some offensive production, but they should be limited.

With a look at the over/under, the line is set at 41. With these offenses averaging 20 PPG and the Steelers D holding their opponents to 14 PPG that favors the under here. The Steelers/Saints game was 20-10 and the Steelers/Dolphins game was 23-22. A more comparable game would be the Ravens/Steelers which ended 17-14.

I think you see a close, low-scoring game. I’m not crazy about the spread since a Steelers win by 3 or 4 points looks likely and I’m not confident enough in Cincinnati to endorse the +5.5. I would tease the game with the under and take Steelers +1.5/Under 48.  I don’t think anyone thinks this one will end over a score of 28-20 or 27-21. Perhaps taking the points with the Bengals +12.5 and Under 48 is tempting considering that the Bengals are at home on Monday Night, but I think the Steelers come out on top here. The Steelers are thinking revenge for getting swept last year by the Bengals. The scores of those games were 18-12 and 23-20.

I’m not crazy about this game, but I’m going to put half of my GB winning on this game to pile onto this week’s winnings. I’m trying to decided on whether to take the under straight up or tease the under 48 with the Steelers +1.5. Since an upset may be in the cards, maybe sticking with the under straight up is the way to go. You’ll have to be the one to put on the “big boy pants” and decide this game yourself. Good luck.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Bengals 17

Tonight’s Plays: Under 41 (Confidence: 2/5), Steelers +1.5/Under 48 (Confidence: 2/5)