NFL Weekend Preview: Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

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We hit the trifecta of picks yesterday.  No matter what you took, you were golden. Whether that was the Falcons -1, Over 43.5, or the teaser, you landed in the money. And yes, I picked a game against the “public” and delivered a winner.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)

I’m all over the Lions in this one. The Bills are still winless.  If the spread is Bills -2.5, it would mean the spread would practically be a pick ’em game if it was in Detroit (home field is worth roughly 3 points). Terrible luck for the Lions though. After blowing a 10-point lead to the Jets at home, they may now lose Matthew Stafford for the rest of the year. Even with Shaun Hill, I think he can beat the 0-8 Bills, who give up 29 PPG (24 PPG in their last 3). Looks like the books think the Bills are due for their first win this season. Maybe they are, but I doubt it. Bills rank 32nd against the run, giving up 178 yards per game and that Jahvid Best kid is pretty good.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Bills 17

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +2.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK JETS (-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

After the Browns have pulled two big upsets, I’m not going to touch this game. Colt McCoy is an absolutely stud, beating both Drew Brees and Tom Brady in his first two NFL games. I’m sure he’s thinking, “bring on the Colts.” However, this will be his toughest defensive test this season. Revis has to be due to pick off the kid. I called the Browns covering against the Saints, but had to pick the Patriots last week who have been on a hell of a run. For the sake of picking this game, I’m going to say that lightining cannot strike thrice. I’ll go with the Jets due to their superb defense, but I am not even going to consider this game as a potential bet due to Browns last two upsets.

Prediction: Jets 20 – Browns 16

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5)

The Panthers have been one of my favorite teams to bet against this season. The Saints -6.5 over the Bucs last week was my “top money play” and was an easy winner. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.  The Panthers are 2-6 against the spread. I’ve won money betting against them when they played the Saints, Bengals, and Rams. The Bucs have a stellar young team this year, posting a 5-3 record and nearly topping the Falcons on the road as 9-point dogs. They are averaging 25.7 PPG in their last 3, while the Panthers have a dismal 12 PPG average. The Bucs have some defensive issues, but that won’t matter as the Panthers simply do not know how to score points. 94% of the public is on the Bucs in this one so everyone and their mother is loving this pick. Some disturbing trends to be warned about though: Bucs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 at home while the Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 division games. However, Bucs spanked the Panthers on the road in week 2 by a score of 20-7. I’ll remain confident in the Bucs.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24 – Panthers 10

Pick Against the Spread: Buccaneers -6.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7)

Everyone is jumping over the Colts in this game. I don’t think there is any doubt that they win: they’re 3-0 at home, averaging 27 PPG on the year, 29 PPG at home, and 27 PPG in their last 3. Especially considering that the Bengals D hasn’t had their act together, the Cols looks like a good pick. Bengals have given up 27 to the Steelers, 22 to Miami, 39 the Falcons, and 23 to the Bucs. The Bengals have actually lost their last 5 games (ouch). The Benglas can score points and I feel that they’re due for about 20 in this game. That would mean the Colts would need to post 28+ for the cover, which may be too close for comfort when you have to give up 7. Based on season averages, the books have this game as a Colts 27-20 victory, which explains the over/under of 47. The Bengals also suffered two huge potential blows to their defense, both LB Keith Rivers and LB Ray Maualuga are listed as questionable.  No doubt the Colts win, but I think the Bengals do stand a chance to cover or at least push since I have 27-20 as the final score flashing in my head.  I think you should tease this one and take the over 40 points with the Colts straight up. Seems fair, right?

Prediction: Colts 27 – Bengals 20

Pick Against the Spread: Colts/Over 40 (Confidence: 4/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS (-1) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

I like the Titans here, which is who the public is favoring with 80% of the money. I always love teams coming off the bye week (take a look at the Eagles and Browns last week) and the Dolphins got shut down by the Ravens 26-10 last week. The Titans offense is scary now that Randy Moss has been added to an already talented receiving corp comprised of Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Justin Gage. Despite the public favoring the Titans, 9/13 experts at Covers.com are favoring the Dolphins though. Both teams are 5-3 ATS this season, but I think the Titans are much better on both sides of the ball. Does anyone want to guess the Titans scoring average? You may be shocked. 28 PPG. Guess what that ranks in the NFL? First! I’ll stick with the Titans.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Dolphins 20

Pick Against the Spread: Titans -1 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1) @ CHICAGO BEARS

I’ll take the Vikings here. Not too much analysis needed. The Bears offense has been horrendous, ranked 27th in the league. Minnesota is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 against division rivals. Chicago is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. This is a must-win game for the Vikings. At 3-5 and Childress on the hot seat, this is a statement game for the Vikings. The Vikings defensive line has also taken a lot of heat for not generating any pressure. Vikings have 12 sacks on the season, which ranks 25th in the league. This coming from a unit that was 1st in the league in sacks last season with 48. The Bears offensive line has been terrible so there has never been a better time for this defensive line to step up. Think Giants vs. Bears on Sunday Night. How many sacks did the Bears give up? The Vikings won’t get that many, but they should get after Cutler a lot this game. The Bears run game should be shut down and I don’t see the Bears scoring more than 17 points. I think you see the Vikings just barely come out on top there. You know if you take the Vikings, you will have to sweat it out all game.  Look for a 17-17 tie in the 4th quarter until a final field goals puts it away for either team.

Prediction: Vikings 20 – Bears 17

Pick Against the Spread: Vikings -1 (Confidence: 2/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-1)

Under normal circumstances, I would highly recommend the Texans here, but will pass on this game and not think twice about it for one reason: the Jaguars are at home off the bye week. The Jaguars also have some momentum after crushing the Cowboys on the road by a score of 35-17. That may be the confidence boost they need going into the second half of the season. The Texans defense has been a huge liability despite their offense keeping them in games. The Texans are just 2-4 in their last 6 and 1-5 ATS in the span. Both teams are giving up an average of 28 PPG this season and 30 PPG in their last 3, hence the over/under 49.5. Despite 86% of the money flowing to the Texans, I’m going to say Jags here, but I have no confidence in the pick.

Prediction: Jaguars 27 – Texans 24

Pick Against the Spread: Jaguars -1 (Confidence: 1/5)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-1)

Like the Jaguars/Texans game, tons of money is flowing in on the Chiefs, getting 78% of the money against the spread, but I would not be so confident.  The Broncos are another home team off the bye week which spells trap game. However, the Broncos have lost a lot of steam and their defense cannot stop anyone, so I think I’ll stay with the Chiefs. The Broncos have lost 4 straight and are just 1-3 at home. This includes a 59-14 loss to the Raiders three weeks ago and then a 24-16 loss to the 49ers. With the Broncos giving up 154 rushing yards per game, Jamaal Charles will have a big game. The KC defense has been solid, giving up just 18 PPG this season. Althoug the Chiefs are 5-3, they’re just 1-3 on the road, so I’m not ready to jump on them here. Two of those road losses were to the Colts and Texans though and their last one came in overtime against the Raiders. Last year when the Brocnos and Chiefs played, the score was 44-23 Chiefs when the game was in Denver in week 17 and 44-13 Broncos when the game was in KC in early December. I’ll pick the Chiefs here, but I have little confidence due to them being on the road against a home team off their bye week.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 – Broncos 20

Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs +1 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (-6)

Two teams coming off their bye week here. The public is liking the Rams, who are getting 75% of the money. However, the line opened at SF -4.5 before moving to SF -6. That’s an interesting line movement. I was ready to take the Rams, but now a bit shaky. The main reason is the Rams are 0-3 on the road and average just 12 PPG of offense on the road while giving up 26 PPG on the road. The Rams just haven’t proved they can do anything on the road and the 49ers will be playing desperate football off the bye week. Like I’ve been saying, desperation is a stinky cologne. Look for Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to have a monster day while the 49ers D shuts down the Rams. Alex Smith is out but Troy Smith is more than capable of carrying the 49ers this game.

Prediction: 49ers 24 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers -6 (Confidence: 2/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3)

After the Seahawks embarrassing loss to the Giants at home, they’re getting pounded this week with 73% of the money being placed on the Cardinals. Hasselbeck may be back this week after suffering a concussion. The Seahawks have been awful on the road, posting a 1-3 record, and they’ve averaged just 10 PPG in their last 3 games. If there was ever a time for the Seahawks to get going again, it would be this week against a defense that is giving up 28 PPG. The Cardinals offense is finally coming together under Max Hall though. Earlier this season, the Seahawks topped the Cardinals 22-10 when the game was in Seattle. I think you see the Cardinals come out on top here though.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 – Seahawks 17

Pick Against the Spread: Cardinals -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5)

Cowboys fans are being tortured this year and I am loving it. They lost 45-7 to the Packers, after losing 35-17 to the Jaguars, after losing 41-35 to the Giants. I hate high spreads, so I won’t be taking this one, but I don’t see how the Cowboys don’t get crushed again. Giants have averaged 36 PPG in their last 3 while giving up just 20 PPG. The Cowboys have given up 40 PPG in their last 3. This game is primed for a beatdown, but these division games can be close, even if the Cowboys are without their starting QB. I’ll pick the Giants, but won’t be touching the game with such a high spread.

Prediction: Giants 35 – Cowboys 20

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

CONCLUSION

We started the week off with a victory thanks to the Falcons. I don’t like anything in the 4:00 time slot, so let’s take a look at some 1:00 games. The Bucs -6.5 over the Panthers looks like the play this week, but whenever EVERYONE is taking a specific game, I always like taking a step back and say wait, let’s look into this a little bit more. The trends tell you to be cautious: Panthers play division games well against the spread and Bucs have struggled covering at home. Other than that game, I think teasing the Colts/Over 40 is a good play. Other than those plays, my consideration would then be turned to the Titans, Chiefs, or Lions, but those are three road plays and I like to stay away from betting on road favorites. Be cautious and good luck!

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