Dolphins vs. Bears Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Thursday got here fast. Yesterday it felt like I was watching Michael Vick score 6 TDs against the Redskins. What a glorious win!

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5)

The Dolphins are favored by just 1.5 due to Tyler Thigpen taking snaps for the Dolphins. Thigpen came in to replace the injured Pennington and Henne last week and threw 64 yards and a TD after completing 4 of his 6 passes. The Dolphins whooped the Titans last week 29-17. The Bears are also coming off an impressive home win over the Vikings 27-13.

The public is split evenly on this spread. 52% are taking the Bears while 48% is on the Dolphins. The Covers.com consensus is sticking with the home team though, picking the Dolphins with 53% of the votes, while Covers’ experts are all on the Dolphins, getting 10/12 expert picks.

Both offenses are averaging 19 PPG, but the Bears have had the better D, giving up 16 PPG compared to the Dolphins 21 PPG allowed. On paper, this looks likes a pretty even matchup. Dolphins have been a better team to bet on this year, going 6-3 ATS compared to the Bears 4-4-1 records ATS.

I’m going to stick with the home team here. The bottom line is that the home team has the advantage here on the short week. Falcons helped prove that against the Ravens last week. The Bears barely beat the Bills in their last road game. They scored just 23 points against the horrendous Panthers and were held to the 3 points against the Giants on the road. The Bears don’t score much. However, with Thigpen taking snaps for the Dolphins, their offense will be limited, so they’ll have to rely on their running game to get it done against a tough Bears run defense. I’m just not confident at all with that scenario which is why I am passing on this game tonight.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, which is reflected by the over/under 40. I would lean towards the under, but it’s too low to be a strong play.

I think you’re best served passing entirely on this game, but if you’re going to force me into a pick, I’m going to say Miami and the under. I’m going to recommend the teaser for a higher confidence play and hope the Dolphins can lose by less than 5 points in a tight, low-scoring game.

Prediction: Dolphins 20 – Bears 17

Picks Against the Spread: Dolphins -1.5 (Confidence: 2/5), Under 40 (Confidence: 2/5), Dolphins +5.5/Under 47 (Confidence 3/5)