SMART BET COLLEGE BOWLS

The Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team on the right track.  Miami has lost their coach, their QB is banged up, and I believe that they had a lot greater expectations for their season.  I just don’t see much motivation for this Miami team as the season his been beyond disappointing.  Prediction ND 21-20.

Final ND 33 Miami 17 WINNER

Central Florida (+7) vs Georgia for 2 units. Prediction Central Florida 30-24. Looking at this game I find only one real strong advantage for Georgia, overall talent.  Obviously Georgia has better recruits and better players, they are in the SEC so that really goes without saying. However, UCF has played great football throughout the entire year. They control the clock with a great running attack and mix in enough passing plays to keep the opponent honest defensively. Defensively they have held their opponents to 18 pts a game, 100 yrds rushing, and 200 yrds passing, for college or pro those are some great numbers.  Georgia’s weakness is primarily their rushing D giving up over 150 yds per and UCF should be able to exploit them in that area.  I have UCF pulling the surprise upset here.

Final UCF 10 Georgia 6 WINNER

TCU (-2.5) vs Wisconsin for 2 units. Prediction TCU 33-25.  Final TCU 21 Wisconsin 19 Loss

Arkansas vs Ohio State (-3.5) for 2 units. Prediction OSU 34-21.

Final OSU 31 Ark 26 WINNER

Northern Illinois (-3) vs Fresno St for 1 unit. Prediction NIU 35-25 Final NIU 40 Fresno 17. WINNER

Florida International (+1.5) vs Toledo for 1 unit. FIU 29-28

Final FIU 34 Toledo 32 WINNER

Illinois (+1.5) vs Baylor for 1 unit. Prediction Illni 32-29

Final Illinois 38 Baylor 14 WINNER

North Carolina (-2) vs Tennessee for 1 unit. Prediction UNC 28-21

Final UNC 30 Tenn 27 WINNER

Virginia Tech vs Stanford (-3) for 1 unit. Prediction Stanford 30-24

Final Stanford 40 VT 12 WINNER

Boston College vs Nevada (-9.5) for 1 unit. Prediction Nevada 41-20.

Nevada 20 BC 13 Loss

Oregon (+3) vs Auburn for 1 unit. Prediction Oregon 34-30.

Several reasons to really like Oregon here. First off, Vegas doesn’t get a lot of things wrong when it comes to setting lines and they originally opened this line Oregon -3 or -2.5 and it immediately got pounded by wise guy bettors.  Within 30 minutes, here in Vegas, the line went from Oregon -3 to Auburn -1.  I know that linesmakers only care about getting 50% of the money on each side so they get their 10%, but that line says they thought Oregon should win the game and I can’t disagree.  Looking at both sides of the ball you can easily argue Oregon is better. Oregon averages almost 550yds of total offense, while Auburn comes in just under 500 yds and defensively most experts and the stats lean towards Oregon 327 to 354, respectively.  Now, you do have to factor in the conferences the teams played in PAC 10 vs SEC, but Oregon clearly was the best in their conference, while Auburn did win all their games they were not always the better team.  If Oregon can establish the run then they should be able to clearly exploit Auburn’s secondary.  This is only a 1 unit play and that is simply because of the talent and ability to win games that Cam Newton brings to the table.  Oregon will have to play great defense and keep at least one linebacker available to spy on Newton.  The other negative is Oregon’s fast offense.  If they score quick, which they seem to be really good at, that means their defense will be on the field a lot and against that Auburn team you could see them getting tired late in the game and if the score is close in the 4th quarter then I would have to lean towards Auburn sneaking out the win.  However, I think Oregon opens up early with the passing game and jumps out to early lead scoring quickly on their first couple possessions.  If Auburn isn’t able to answer those early TDs then that may be just enough for Oregon to hold on late and win outright.

I will do my best to give write ups for all these games and prediction on final scores.  Feel free to make comments or questions about these or other bowl games.