NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions (1:00 Games)

We’re nearing the end of the season as the cold weather hits us. Screw you Florida and California people. Apologies for the lack of full updates the past few weeks. If you were wondering why I’ve been MIA, there’s two reasons. I started a business recently which recently has “blown up” and I got engaged. Double whammy in such a short period of time. Things have been crazy work-wise but awesome. I’m going to do my best to produce a solid report. In order to break things up, I’ll post my 1:00 plays and try to get 4:00 done tomorrow. Looks like the Colts were an easy play tonight against a team on a 5-game losing streak. Let’s take a look at the Sunday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been riding the Falcons this season and very pleased with the results (8-4 ATS). I also love betting against the Panthers (3-9 ATS). I was about to write -9.5 as the spread without looking at the line. Therefore, some slight value in this play, especially if you can buy a half-point. Like all of the Panthers games, it should be a rout. 10-2 vs. 1-11 and just 7.5 points? Panthers season average is 12.8 PPG while their D gives up 25. With a line like this, you have to think, okay, whose injured? Tony Gonzalez is probable with a banged up ankle. No big deal (NBD). Falcons roll here.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9)

I will take the points here if I have to choose the spread, but I like the teaser instead. Earlier in the season the Bengals won 27-21. Steelers were dominating the game until the Bengals got back into the game in the 4th quarter. Although the Steelers are winning games, in most cases they will be close, very close — 3 to 7 points close. The Steelers offense isn’t an offensive juggernaut, especially in these late months when the weather is cold. With the over/under opening at 40.5 before moving to 39.5, the under looks like a play. You can bet on a Steelers victory at home with the under. Tease the Steelers to -2 with the under 47 if you can find the over/under at 40 instead of 39.5. Adding the points to the Bengals won’t be a bad option either, but you should stick with the Steelers winning at home.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Bengals 13

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -2/Under 47 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Last week I allowed my bias to get the best of me. I always find myself wishing losses on the Giants and Cowboys due to my allegiance to the Eagles. It’s wishful thinking. I hope the Vikings win this one so the Eagles have an easier trip to the NFC East crown so I cannot provide an unbias opinion here. Looks like the Giants will finally get Nicks and Smith back. The Giants crushed the Redskins with their running game last week. Vikings finally put back-to-back wins together. AP found a good day to go off against the Bills at home. I’ll have to go with the Giants though. They’re playing playoff-caliber football.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Vikings 20

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5) @ DETROIT LIONS

I love taking the Packers over the Lions, it’s been a huge money-maker over the last three years. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against the Lions. Lions managed to comeback late against the Packers to lose 28-26 to cover the spread but because the line was Packers -14.5 I stayed the hell away from that one. The last time the Packers were in Detroit, it was last Thanksgiving, the line was -11 with an over/under of 48. I put a ton of coin on Packers -4/over 41. Packers won 34-12. I’ll take the Packers.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -6.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4)

I’ve been playing the Jaguars every now and then since I think you get a lot of value with them. It’s played out well. The Jags are 4-1 in their last 5 and 5-0 ATS in that stretch. I took them over the Cowboys +6.5 when they started their run, I took them over Houston -1 the next week, passed on the Cleveland game, and took them +7 over the Giants and -3 over the Titans. I have been loving the Jaguars although I used to dog them. I’ll take them once again at home over the Raiders. Also another benefit here is home team playing at 1:00 vs. a west coast team.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Raiders 16

Pick Against the Spread: Jaguars -4 (Confidence: 4/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1) @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I’ve been high on the Bucs this year. I took the Falcons last week, but other than that, I have been recommending the Bucs and they’ve been hitting — a 5-game winning streak ATS prior to last week. The Redskins are a broken team. They have already given up on the season and it shows. Washington has lost their last 4 of 5. They have scored an average of 13 points in their last 3. The mere fact that the Bucs could hang with the Falcons was proof positive that they’re legit. You can say the Redskins are due to rebound at home and I think that’s likely, but I will stick with the Bucs in a mildly optimistic play.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24 – Redskins 16

Pick Against the Spread: Bucs -1 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CONCLUSION

The 1:00 lineup looks good. Packers over Lions, Jaguars over Raiders, and Falcons over Panthers look like the top plays. You’re big boys though, you don’t need me to tell you what to do. The 4:00 plays I hope to have posted by noon tomorrow. Did you enjoy the normal-caliber post? I think we need a video.