NFL Weekend Preview: Week 14 Picks (4:00 Games)

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We’re finally back to posting normal updates for the games. Last night I posted my picks for the 1:00 games and now we’ll look to see what’s on the menu at 4:00.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9)

You are well aware that I’ve been riding the Saints since about week 8 on the theory that they would turn on the jets in the second half of the season. I was able to books wins on them with their wins over Carolina and Seattle ATS. However, despite winning their last two games, they just couldn’t get over the spread. They topped the Cowboys 30-27 on Thanksgiving. With the line at -4, it was a tough loss, especially since they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and took the game 20-6 into the half. The Cowboys battled back in the second half to get the cover. I then liked them against Cincinnati -6.5. Same story that game. Saints took a 13-6 lead into the half and jumped to a 20-12 lead after the 3rd until all hell broke loose in the 4th quarter and the game ended 34-30. The Rams have been a phonemal team to bet on this year and I have played them a few times over the last few weeks. Although they’re 7-5, they are a ridiculous 9-3 ATS. I like teams that are .750 ATS. The Saints have a losing record ATS at 5-7. I will take the points here, although the Saints will win this one at home. I say they win by 7 or 8. They’ll score a lot of points, but over the last two weeks their D hasn’t stepped up and has allowed the opposing team to stay in games.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Rams 23

Pick Against the Spread: Rams +9 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4.5)

Just an ugly game to think about. 49ers are 4-8 ATS while Seattle is 6-6 ATS. I took Seattle last week since it was an easy pick over the Panthers, but they’ve been crushed by KC and NO in the prior two weeks. I also took GB over SF last week which was another winner. Neither team impresses me so I won’t be touching this game. If you’re going to force me into picking, I would say take the points.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Seahawks 17

Pick Against the Spread: Seattle +4.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS (-5)

So much for the Jets. They got absolutely spanked by the Patriots and completely embarrassed, which could mean a rebound game at home against a sub-par team. I think you’re getting a favorable spread here. The Dophins could only put up 10 points on the Browns. However, they were without Brandon Marshall and there’s a shot that he returns this week. What a fantasy bust though. 693 yards and 1 TD on the season. That’s a big blow to people who took him in the 2nd round. Bettors are also favoring the under in this game. The over/under opened at 41 before moving down to 39.5. Based on last week’s performance, the under looks like a play with the cold weather. I think you see the Jets come out on top in the close one. If you can teaser the over to 47 and take that with the Jets +2, you don’t have to worry about them covering the spread.

Prediction: Jets 20 – Dolphins 13

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -5 (Confidence: 2.5/5), Jets +2/Under 47 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS (-4) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals have been an embarrassment. A 3-9 record, 3-9 ATS, and 2-4 at home. The Broncos haven’t been much better at 3-9 and 4-8 ATS. This is another game where neither team impresses me so I won’t touch it, but you have to go with the Broncos who are averaging 21 PPG compared to Arizona’s 17 PPG. Both defenses are giving up an average of 28 PPG. Arizona has been awful in their last 3 games averaging just 8 PPG. Both teams have a lot of issues, but for the sake of picking this game I have to go with the Broncos, who are averaging almost 100 yards more per game than the Cardinals. Both defenses are giving up roughly the same amount of yards, in the 370-380 yard range. This game could be decided by 3 points though. My first thought was Broncos win 26-23. With these defenses, you may see some points. With the over/under at 42, you could take Broncos +3 with the over 35.

Prediction: Broncos 27 – Cardinals 23

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos -4 (Confidence: 2/5), Broncos +3/Over 35 (Confidence: 3/5)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGER (-6.5)

The Chargers lost at home last week to the Raiders? What is going on? Before you take the Chiefs, who at first glace look like they’re getting a very favorable spread, you have to look at the inury report.  Cassel is doubtful for Sunday due to an appendectomy. Both teams offensive and defensive stats are nearly identical. KC PPG/PPA is 24.6/19.8 while SD’s is 26.9/21.1.  Without Cassel, I would go Chargers at home, but KC’s defense could keep in close regardless of who is at QB. Cassel’s shot at playing is 50/50. You may want to play the injury card here and go with the Chargers, but my confidence is shaken in them and I may pass at the opportunity.

Prediction: Chargers 27 – Chiefs 20

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS

We finally get to the game of the week, the 10-2 Patriots vs. the 9-3 Chicago Bears. I’ll be interested to see how the Patriots do against this tough Bears D on the road. The Pats put 45 last week against the allegedly best defense in the NFL’s 6th ranked defense. What will they do against the 3rd ranked defense? I’m going to favor Tom Brady and the Patriots though. No matter how good the opposing defense is, Brady always finds the open man. Do I need to mention Danny Woodhead again? You know who he is by now. With the Bears offense averaging just 20 PPG compared to the Pats 31 PPG, I have to say that the Patriots will come out on top in Chicago.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Bears 23

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

CONCLUSION

I like the 1:00 card a little bit more. At 4:00 you’re getting a couple battles between bad teams and betting on those are a crapshoot. You may entertain Rams +9 over New Orleans if you’re looking to take points. I think the Patriots -3 is a good option, but it’s a road game against a superb defense. You can play the injury card and take the Chargers are an appendex-less Matt Cassell (if he plays). You could also test your luck on the Jets or take my teaser if you see a low-scoring game. Best luck gentlement.