NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Last week I went 8-5 ATS. Posted picks went 2-2 ATS. Although we fell victim to the Saints upset and missed on the Panthers pick, we got some of that back with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks and we hit our Monday Night play thanks to the Chiefs.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

You have to be careful picking your spots when betting against home dogs (see the Saints last week). Are the Colts due for a win or at least a solid effort against the Falcons? Perhaps. But this is one the Falcons should win by double-digits. The Falcons got off to a slow start, but have turned the corner and are becoming the team that many people thought they could be coming into this season. The Falcons are coming off a bye week after they had two big wins in their previous games. They are coming off a big 31-17 win over the Panthers and a 23-16 win over the Lions. If the Falcons could hold the Panthers and Lions to 17 points or less, how many points do you think the Colts can score against them? The Colts are scoring just 15.1 PPG while surrendering 31.5 PPG. The Colts have given up a minimum of 23 points in every game this season. Based on stats, you’re thinking worst-case scenario, the Falcons win 24-17. Michael Turner should also have a big game against the Colts 31st-ranked run defense. That will help the Falcons sustain drives and put up a ton of points.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Colts 13

Free Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I’ve been a huge fan of the Bengals this year as they delivered another big win for me last week against the Seahawks on the road. With their 6-1 ATS record, I’ll gladly take the 3 points. The Bengals are averaging 5 more points scored and 3 less points allowed than their opponent. The Bengals run defense has been superb. The Bengals D is ranked 2nd against the run and 4th in total yards allowed. The Bengals should be favored by 3 in my opinion.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Titans 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Bengals +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ KANSAS CITY CHEIFS (-4)

The Dolphins and Colts are competing with each other in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Chiefs have put together a string of four straight wins. Last week we saw the emergence of WR Jonathan Baldwin, the Chiefs 1st-round pick. In Baldwin’s second game with the Chiefs, he put up 6 receptions, 96 yards, and 1 TD. He is going to be a stud in this league and with Dwayne Bowe on the opposite side, Cassel should start heating up. Last year Cassel got off to a slow start before heating up in week 6. In Cassel’s final 11 games, he posted a 100+ QB rating in 6 of those games with an 80+ rating in 3 others. He also threw at least 2 TDs in 7 of those final 11 games. I’m going to ride this Chiefs momentum train again this week. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS compared to the Chiefs 5-2 ATS record.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3)

After four straight wins including a huge win against the Patriots last week, the Steelers are looking like the team to beat in the AFC. After an embarrassing week 1 loss to the Ravens, the Steelers will be looking for revenge. The Ravens have a huge weakness that will haunt them this game — their offensive line. It was atrocious against the Jaguars and in the first half against the Cardinals. With a team like the Steelers, the Steelers will be getting after Flacco early and often. Flacco’s 53.8% completion percentage will have a difficult time picking up first downs and moving the chains against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense. In an interesting note, in all four games in 2009 and 2010 between the Ravens and Steelers, all games were decided by a field goal. The series is an even 3-3 in these teams last 6 contests. Expect a close one, but one that I would side with the Steelers on. I’m playing the home field and the Ravens question marks on the offensive line.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Ravens 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -3 (Confidence: 4/5)