NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

In the pick ’em league, yours truly ended up numero uno last week with 11 wins for a 11-5 ATS record bringing my season record to 74-66 ATS. The Monday Night play also helped me make up some ground on the Seahawks upset over the Ravens. There’s not a whole lot of games that I like this week. There’s a couple road teams in pick ’em games that I would consider, BUF (+1) @ MIA, JAC (+1) @ CLE, OAK (-1) @ MIN, but I view them as coin tosses. Here is what I have on tap for you this week. I’m not crazy about my two straight-up picks, but really like the Packers/49ers teaser.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)

When picking teams, finding teams carrying momentum is always a smart move and the team with the most momentum in the NFL right now is the Chicago Bears who are coming into this one with 4-straight wins. The problem with momentum teams is not getting a favorable spread since if this game was played three weeks ago, the game would likely be a pick ’em instead of the Bears as 3.5-point favorites. After the Bears Monday Night loss to the Lions, they’ve had dominating wins over the Vikings, Bucs, Eagles, and Lions. The Bears are putting up a surprising 31.4 PPG at home and limiting teams to 18.2 PPG.

San Diego, on the other hand, hasn’t performed well on the road. Their defense is giving up 27.2 PPG when travelling. With the Chargers key defensive playmakers (Castillo and Phillips) still out, I think you go Bears here. The Chargers are also likely without offensive linemen Louis Vasquez and Marcus McNeil — they’re listed as questionable. The Bears have been great at dialing up the pressure and should be smelling blood in the water with the Chargers top two linemen possibly sidelined.

Before jumping on this pick though, the Bears have some injury concerns on their own. Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, and Devin Hester are all listed as questionable. They’ll all have to suit up in this one for me to give this pick my stamp of approval. The Chargers have been awful against the spread this year with a 2-7 ATS record, but they haven’t played too many games as underdogs. You also have to be weary that the Chargers tend to heat up in the second half of the season. They’re 7-2 ATS in their last 9 November games. However, I’ll count on the Chargers road woes to continue. Matt Forte should continue playing for that new contract and looks to have another 150-yard game (rushing and receiving).

Prediction: Bears 27 – Chargers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Bears -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) 

I would like this pick a lot more if Julio Jones was playing, but it looks like he’ll be shut down this week due to a hammy. Tennessee has been one of those teams who you don’t know which team is going to show up on Sunday. Last week they showed up and beat the Panthers on the road 30-3. The Titans running game got going against a team that has struggled against the run, but I did not expect the Titans defense to shut down Cam Newton like they did. The Falcons defense will fair much better against the Titans than the Panthers though. This game should be pretty tight, but one I see the Falcons winning by a TD. Not a high confidence play since it should be tight.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Titans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -6 (Confidence: 3/5)

TEASER: 49ERS (-2.5) & PACKERS (-7)

Can we say that the 49ers have had the Cardinals number over the last two years? The 49ers have swept this series two years in a row in dominating fashion. The 49ers won both contests last year 38-7 and 27-6, and 24-9 and 20-16 the year before. San Francisco’s defense is stingy, giving up just 15.3 PPG, an NFL best. I’m not crazy about the high-spread since I’m always weary of Alex Smith, so I’ll recommend adding the 49ers (-2.5) with another game. Why not go with the 9-0 Green Bay Packers (-7) at home over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Packers are 7-2 ATS. The 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS. Both teams are at home this week. Looks like a solid teaser to me.

Prediction: 49ers 27 – Cardinals 13

Prediction: Packers 31 – Bucs 17

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers -2.5/Packers -7 (Confidence: 4/5)