NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

I just went back and was looking at my Monday Night picks. We are 5-0 ATS in our last 5 Monday Night picks. Read ’em and weep: Chargers, Saints, Patriots, Packers, and Chiefs.  Boom goes the dynamite! Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS. Taking a look at this week, it’s definitely not as easy as last week, but let’s get into it.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9) @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

In the Redskins last 8 games, they are 1-7 (2-6 ATS). I was able to capitalize off them last week when the Jets were one of my top plays. The Redskins are depleted with injuries. LaRon Landy is out, London Fletcher is questionable, Trent Williams is out, and Fred Davis is out. With the Patriots nearly doubling the Redkins in PPG, I’ll take the Pats. The Pats are averaging 30.2 PPG compared to the Redskins 16.8 PPG. The only downside to this pick is the Patriots defense can be a liability (the Colts scored 24 points against them last week). With the AFC race pretty tight and the Pats still vying for a No. 1 or 2 seed, I think you’ll see a focused Patriots team ready to roll. The last time the Patriots faced the Redskins was in 2007 as 15-point favorites and they crushed the Redskins 52-7.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Redskins 17

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -9 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

You usually see the Saints getting good spreads on the road since they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. I have played the Saints a few times this year and their 8-4 ATS record has rewarded me more than once. Although the Saints let me down on the road against the Rams, I picked them on the road against the Jaguars earlier in the season and two weeks ago against the Giants. The Saints are carrying a ton of momentum right now, winning AND covering their last four games since they had that let down on the road against the Rams. In that four-game stretch, the Saints beat the Falcons on the road, hopefully putting their road woes to bed. In their last three, the Saints have put up an average of 459 YPG and 35.3 PPG.

Tennessee has also be playing very good football and there’s no doubt that this game will be competitive. The Titans have won 3 of their last 4 games and have covered the spread in all four games. The 7-5 Titans simply beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and get beat by the teams that are supposed to beat them. Recent wins for the Titans include the Bills, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Browns, and Broncos — all middle-of-the-pack teams. Losses include the Falcons, Bengals, Texans, and Steelers.

Simply put, the Saints are a better football team and should be able to win this game on the road, but their poor record against the spread on the road is preventing me from getting too confident.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Titans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CHICAGO BEARS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5)

This is the first time that I am picking the Broncos all season long. With the Broncos red hot right now, there hasn’t been a better time to pick them when they’re playing at home and their opponent will have both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte sidelined. The Bears put up a mere 3 points last week with Forte and Cutler out. It took 5 straight Broncos wins and covers against the spread for me to finally get on the Tim Tebow express — don’t let me down Tebow. The Broncos always win close though so buy a half point and take this line at -3 just in case the Broncos win by a field goal like they always love to do. Points will be hard for the Broncos to come by against this defense, but I’m not counting on the Bears scoring much. I’m hoping that the Broncos defense that played in the three games prior to the Vikings game show up when they held the Chargers, Jets, and Chiefs to 13 points or less.

Prediction: Broncos 20 – Bears 13

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos -3 (Confidence: 3/5)