Week 5 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

We delivered back-to-back winners on Monday and Thursday Night by going with the dogs. We played the Bears (+3.5) and Rams (+2) to take down some easy wins to build up the bank roll heading into week 5 of the NFL. There’s a lot of road favorites this week that I like. In weeks 1-3, the home dogs dominated, but that all changed in week 4 when a lot of road favorites got easy covers (49ers, Patriots, and Bengals). Is this the week the road favorites continue domination or will we be stunned once again by the unpredictable home dogs? We’ll find out this Sunday. Here’s what’s on tap.

Houston Texans (-9) over NEW YORK JETS — Confidence: 8/10 — The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the league, 28th in yards and 23rd in points to be exact. We saw how terrible their offense was against the 49ers defense. 145 total yards, 9 first downs, 4 turnovers, 23 minutes of possession, 2-of-13 on third down — and they failed to score a single point. It was pathetic. They also lost WR Santonio Holmes to boot.  This should be the exact same story when they face the Houston’s 1st-ranked defense. The only difference is that this game is on Monday Night. That’s not going to be enough to give the Jets a shot in this one as I’m calling a blow out. Houston wins in the ballpark of 27-6 in my opinion.

Chicago Bears (-5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS  — Confidence: 8/10 — When you have the worst offense in the league taking on one of the league’s best defenses in the Bears, I’ll take the Bears every time. The Bengals dominated the Jaguars 27-10 in Jacksonville last week and that seems like what the Bears should be able to do to against them. Jags managed just 212 total yards, were 2-of-11 on 3rd down, and got sacked 6 times. The Bears defense should eat them up just like they did to the Cowboys.

Green Bay Packers (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS — Confidence: 7/10 — Gotta go Packers here. Colts lost to the Jags at home. This should be an easy win for the Packers who need this one to get to 3-2 to keep pace with Bears and Vikings in their division. This is an important game for the Packers as both the Vikings and Bears should advance to 4-1 this week.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS — Confidence: 7/10 — Ravens benefit from a few extra days of rest. The Chiefs just got spanked by the Chargers. One could argue that the Chiefs are due for a rebound game, but I doubt it, not against the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense will be rolling like the Chargers, Falcons, and Saints all rolled on the Chiefs and the Ravens D will shut the Chiefs down.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 7/10 — With the issues that the Titans have had on defense, the Vikings are due to score a lot of points. The Vikings played very strong at home against the 49ers and their defense is also looking very good. The Titans look to be in disarray, so the Vikings shouldn’t have a problem covering the 5.5.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks — Confidence: 6/10 — Huge let down for the Panthers last week. They could have beaten the Falcons. Positive signs for their offense though who had a bunch of nice drives that ended up in TDs. The Panthers defense continues to let Cam Newton down when it matters. They came up with a lot of 3rd down stops, but couldn’t stop the Falcons when it mattered. The Panthers should score a lot of points, but will also give up a lot of points as well. I’ll take the Panthers in this spot at home, but their defense gives me a good enough reason to pass on placing my money on them. Seattle’s D will also keep the Seahawks in this game.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+1.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 6/10 — Solely a situational play. The Rams are at home twice in a row. They had a solid win over the Seahawks and beat the Redskins at home. The Cardinals aren’t going 16-0 and they should have lost to the Dolphins last week. Tannehill looked like the second coming of Dan Marino (absent the interceptions) by passing for over 400 yards. The Cardinals have played at home twice in a row and now have to travel to St. Louis on a short week to take on a Rams team that has looked solid thus far at home. The Rams defense has improved and Bradford is playing fantastic in the Dome. Bradford is a much better quarterback than Kevin Kolb. Rams looks like the play here.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Confidence: 6/10 — Redskins bounced back against TB after dropping one to the Bengals. Falcons snuck by the Panthers last week. I’m going to go Falcons here. They’re a much better team, but they may be due for a let-down game as that almost occurred against the Panthers last week. Cam Newton had a lot of success against their D and RGIII could give them problems as well.

Denver Broncos (+6.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS — Confidence: 5/10 — The classic Brady vs. Manning duel. Brady usually owns this matchup, especially at home. This is too many points for me to take the Patriots as I think you’ll see Peyton Manning keep this one close, especially if Denver’s D does their job. I think you see the Pats win here by 3-4 points. I’ll give the Broncos a 33% chance of the outright win, so I believe there’s more value here in taking the points. Manning looked crisp last week — 30/38, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 130 QB rating.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-10) over Buffalo Bills — Confidence: 5/10 — The high spread is enough to keep me away from this one, but the 49ers D should shut the Bills down at home. I just don’t have enough confidence in the 49ers offense to completely kick ass. Although the 49ers scored 34 points on the Jets, most of those points came following turnovers including a fumble returned for a TD. I’ll give the Bills a fighting chance to cover this spread.

Cleveland Browns (+8.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS — Confidence: 5/10 — The Giants don’t play well at home against poor teams. Teams like the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Bucs routinely cover against them, especially with the high spread, which is why you saw this spread go from Giants (-10) to Giants (-8.5). Giants are fully capable of blowing out the Browns 35-0, but they find a way to either blow games or let bad teams hang around. Just a gut feeling that Giants win here by 7.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 5/10 — Bengals have been solid the last two weeks. The have won three straight but against weak defenses (Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville). They’re facing a bit tougher defense this week and the Dolphins will keep this one close with the spread, but I’m giving a slight lean on the Bengals. Vegas got this line right, I give the Dolphins a 50% chance of covering the number. Early action knocked this line from Dolphins (+4.5) to (+3.5).

San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS — Confidence: 4/10 — The Saints are due for a win and that win could come this week, but I still have to go Chargers with the points. The Saints defense stepped up their game last week against the Packers, although the Packers snuck by win the win. I still consider the Saints defense a liability though, which is why I’ll take the 3.5 points. I may flip-flop on this game prior to kick-off though.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS — Confidence: 4/10 — I’m an Eagles fan and prohibited from admitting defeat for the Eagles against their in-state rival. Hopefully, the Eagles pull off one of their famous 1-2 point wins.

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