Week 9 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

My week 8 was solid. I hit my top play in a teaser with the Patriots/49ers. It was an easy winner. Overall, our picks went 7-7 ATS. Let’s take a look into what week 9 has in store. I’m not crazy about any particular spread as I’ll come out merely recommending a teaser with Chargers (-1)/Packers (-3) and Packers (-3)/Texans (-3). A few road favorites like the Lions (-3.5) or Broncos (-3.5) also look tempting.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8) over Kansas City Chiefs — Confidence: 6/10 — When these teams faced each other earlier this season, the Chargers absolutely dominated the Chiefs in Kansas City. Now the game will be played in San Diego. Based on the previous game, most people would be confident laying the points and taking the Chargers at home. However, I’m not so impressed with this Chargers team that has lost three straight games (@ NO, vs. DEN, @ CLE). Most division games will be close. However, the Chiefs are in shambles and will likely get destroyed just like their previous contest. Teasing this spread down to Chargers (-1) to pair with another game looks like the choice to make in this one.

Carolina Panthers (+3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Confidence: 6/10 — What a game this will be when Cam Newton squares off against Robert Griffin III. Newton continues to suffer heartache after heartache as his defense lets him down every single week. If the weather clears up, this looks to be a shootout as both teams are at the mercy of their defenses. I believe the Panthers losing streak comes to an end this week as Cam will get the victory.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 6/10 — The Packers failed to cover the 14.5 against the Jaguars last week, winning 24-15. If you teased the spread down to 8.5 as I recommended, you escaped with the cover. This should be another easy win for the Packers as the Cardinals don’t have an offense to keep up with them. Packers (-3) should be a lock to throw into any teaser card that you want to take. Packers (-3), Texans (-3), and Chargers (-1) looks good with all three teams at home against very weak opponents.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Lions looked sharp last week with Matthew Stafford bouncing back nicely at home and putting the team on his back to get the W in a crazy back-and-forth game. I expect Stafford’s solid play to continue this week in Jacksonville.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS — Confidence: 7/10 — I have faith in the Bears defense to get the job done on the road. Hesitant to bet against the home dog though.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS — Confidence: 7/10 — Peyton Manning has been outstanding the last three weeks by destroying the Raiders, engineering a monumental comeback against the Chargers, and then dominating Saints. Peyton Manning has struggled at times on the road, notably against the Patriots and Falcons, but he’s been on fire the last three weeks so I’ll stick with the Broncos this week. The Dolphins and Steelers were both able to go into Cincinnati and get a W so I’m confident that the Broncos can as well in order to keep a commanding lead in the AFC West.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — Confidence: 7/10 — We have our fourth road favorite that is favored by 3.5 points. We already know that the chances that all 4 road favorites win and cover the spread is slim. One of these road dogs will be able to pull off the upset, but I’m not about to take the Browns. The Browns were able to squeak out a win against the Chargers last week due mostly to sloppy and soaked field. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Browns pull off the upset here this week. The reason I expect the Ravens to get the job done is because they’re coming off their bye week and had two weeks to prepare for a division opponent after getting embarrassed by the Houston Texans.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10.5) over Buffalo Bills — Confidence: 7/10 — I like this game despite the high spread as this game could get ugly for the Bills in a hury. The Texans defense bounced back nicely from their loss to the Packers by dominating the Ravens. They’re now at home off the bye week and are facing a team that has had their struggles this year, particularly on defense. The Houston offense should be rolling and the Houston defense should have another lights out performance. Texans should easily win by 11.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS — Confidence: 6/10 — What is up with the Miami Dolphins? Three straight wins and they are rolling right now. They topped both the Bengals and the Jets on the road. I have to stick with them, but I could easily go with the Colts in this spot as well. Both teams are a surprising 4-3 and the Colts have played good football at home. This one is a toss up.

Minnesota Vikings (+5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS — Confidence: 6/10 — Both teams have shown some flashes of being strong football teams, but both are coming off tough losses. The Vikings got blown out by the Bucs at home, while the Seahawks didn’t have enough gas in the tank to pull off the win in Detroit last week. In what looks to be a pretty even matchup, I’ll slightly favor taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) over OAKLAND RAIDERS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Bucs offense is starting to click. Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, and Doug Martin have put up some monster fantasy games in the last four weeks. I haven’t been so impressed with the Raiders, although the Raiders have played much better in their last four games compared to their first four games. The Bucs also benefit from a few days of extra rest having played on Thursday.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Confidence: 7/10 — Eli Manning is just so hot right now. Have to pick the Giants here.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Confidence: 6/10 — The Falcons keep on rolling, now 7-0 after beating up on the Eagles. They seem due for a let-down game, but their track record at home is undeniable. They’re a very tough team to beat at home.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m an Eagles fan and have tried to remain optimistic about them over the last few weeks, but eventually, I just have to face facts. The Eagles, despite all of their talent, are just not a good football team. They’ve now lost three straight games and it’s time for Andy Reid to go. I would be thrilled to death if the Eagles began pursuing Jon Gruden or Bill Cowher to take over for the Eagles. There’s also speculation that the Eagles may bench Vick and turn the reigns over to their rookie QB Nick Foles, who impressed coaches and fans with what he was able to do in the preseason. I have a feeling that the Saints will give the Eagles a spanking on Monday Night.