Football Season Is Coming…

Just wanted to check in with everybody. I’ve been working away on my 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings. Check those out as it will be a great cheat sheet for your draft and also breaks players down into tiers (RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3). It’s a continued work in progress until the season kicks off.

Just a few predictions about the upcoming 2014 football season and my approach to betting on the NFL in 2014. First, I’m not going to place any substantial bets on games until at least week 5. There are surprises every year and there are a lot of teams that I usually tend to enjoy betting against that will be much better football teams this year (e.g., Vikings, Jets, Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Cardinals, etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dogs starting the year on a very good note.

Over the last four years, I’ve found that my best weeks against the spread have been weeks 10-16.  That’s when things get serious. What gives me an edge during this time is I’ve found that the parity between teams that is often seen in the beginning of the year begins to dissipate. The playoff teams typically kick it up a notch while other teams who will not be competing for a playoff spot take a step back. It’s simply a matter of the playoff teams gaining confidence and the non-playoff teams losing confidence and you see that  take effect after week 9 once teams have a better idea of whether they are a contender or not.

For example, the Broncos were 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games after starting the season 4-3-1 ATS. The Seahawks finished the season 6-1 ATS after going 5-4 ATS in their first 9. If you want some in-depth research on historical favorite vs. underdog winning percentages, check out that research report. It’s loaded with tons of great information. Underdogs have outperformed favorites every year between 2008-2012, and have outperformed favorites dividing the last 35 years into 5-year stretches 6 out of 7 times. Compelling research.

I also wanted to note some of the best and worst teams against the spread from last year:

Source: 2013 NFL Standings ATS

Think the Packers and Saints are safe teams to play against the spread?  Think again. The Saints had a 8-7-1 ATS record and the Packers came in with a 6-10 ATS record. You would have been better off riding the Dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings, Jets, Steelers, Chargers, and Cowboys who all had a 9-7  (or 9-6-1)ATS records. I also wanted to point out that the Saints maintained a perfect 7-0-1 ATS records at home, but struggled against the spread on the road going 1-7 ATS. The Bengals were a perfect 8-0 ATS at home.

So that’s my advice going into the 2014 football season. Be cautious taking the favorites in the first four weeks of the season, consider picking home dogs who are getting points, and then pound the dogs in weeks 10-16 once they are eliminated from playoff contention.

In the mean time, get ready for your fantasy football drafts, and check out our 2014 fantasy football cheat sheet which will continue to be updated until the beginning of the season.