2014 Fantasy Football Draft Review – 12 Team PPR

Just got done with my first draft and I’m very happy with the results. I got a ton of guys that I was looking to get. In the first three rounds, it was just a matter of who fell to me and then it was just a matter of where I thought I was getting the most value or the most upside. Here are my picks and throughts.

12-Teams – 1/2 Point PPR

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX, D/ST, K

1.) Adrian Peterson (RB) – #3 – I wasn’t thrilled with drafting #3. The debate begins at A.P vs. Forte. I knew Forte has more upside PPR value, but A.P. makes up whatever PPR downside he has with him getting more goalline opportunities. I’m concerned with A.P.’s age, but Forte is no spring chicken, he’s just as old. I don’t want to go WR this early with Calvin Johnson since I don’t know what kind of RB I’m getting in Round 2. You need a stud at RB. A.P. is guy that gets drafted in the top 5 every year he’s healthy. Forte is a guy you draft in the last half of Round 1. Adrian Peterson is still the guy to draft at #3 after Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.

2.) Leo’Veon Bell (RB) – #22 – I was targeting Brandon Marshall in Round 2, who I like just as much as Dez Bryant and A.J. Green and he usually goes mid-Round 2. I was looking to get a WR stud, but they’re all off the board and the next wide receivers up are Alshon and Jordy. Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball are taken by now. I had my eye on Le’Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard as guys I want at the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2. I’ll take Bell at the end of Round 2 in a heartbeat, especially if Brandon Marshall is just off the board. I can wait on a WR since it’s deep. Time to get another stud RB. I’m not worried about Bell getting busted for weed. The NFL won’t suspend him until next year. Steelers say they will give them punishment and I think that’s a one-game suspension tops. I like how I have two stud RBs with my first two picks. Bell had 10-straight games with 10+ points. He’ll give you consistent production you can count on. He’s a beast.

3. ) Antonio Brown (WR) – #27 – Another guy I was high on in Andre Ellington, who was my Round 3 target. Ellington was taken right before me at #26. He was a guy I really wanted, but I’m thrilled with Bell as my RB2. I went RB/RB anyway, so it’s time to go WR. Jordy and Alshon went before that. I’ll take Antonio Brown who was 2nd in the NFL in receptions and 3rd in the NFL in yards in 2014. The guy was a complete stud in getting touches and I think he’ll outpace both Jordy and Alshon in yards. Jordy will get you more TDs and I’m not high on Alshon. Alshon’s numbers will go down since Brandon Marshall is Jay Cutler’s guy. I’m happy with Antonio Brown in the third round and I passed on Randall Cobb to get him. I’m good with that.

4.) Shane Vereen (RB) – #46 – I was shocked to see Vereen here, especially in a PPR league. I have Vereen as the top 36. Frank Gore, Ray Rice, and Trent Richardson all went before him, who I’m not sold on. Ray Rice is great value if you need a RB, but I had him going in the next round. I’m worried about Gore’s age. Trent Richardson is garbage. Had him on my Do Not Draft List. Vereen offers PPR upside and will have a much larger role in the offense this season. I also used a late pick on Patriots RB James “Sweet Feet” White since he’s getting rave reviews in camp and will have a bigger role in the case of an injury to Vereen. I was eyeing Cordarelle Patterson as a target in this spot, but was hoping to land him just a few picks later. I also had Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson in my queue. My other target in this round was Keenan Allen who was drafted #41 and then Vincent Jackson was drafted #45.

5.)  Cordarrelle Patterson (WR) – #51 – I love getting Cordarrelle in Round 5. I also had my eye on Percy Harvin, but he goes a pick before me at #50, which made my decision a whole lot easier. If I missed on Cordarelle, I would take DeaSean Jackson next. I’m happy with any of those guys. I think Patterson has way more upside than Jackson this year. Jackson will have a solid year, but I see Patterson’s touches doubling this year. I love what Norv Turner is going to do with this guy this year.

6.) Michael Floyd (WR) – #70 – I was shocked that Michael Floyd fell out of the top 50.  He should top Fitzgerald in yards. Fitz will get more TDs and receptions, but Floyd will top him in yards. I took Floyd one spot ahead of T.Y. Hilton, who I also love as I see him as the man guy in Indianapolis this year. Floyd is a phenomenal deep threat who can catch those 20-40 yard bombs for TDs. A great guy to put into the Flex. QB was a need, but I plan on just waiting to see who falls into my lap. I have my reservations about Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. Brady and Ryan didn’t even crack the top 12 fantasy QBs last year. I figured I can draft Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, or Russell Wilson late.

7.) Golden Tate (WR) – #75 – It was no longer a position of need, but I like Tate’s upside and being a guy who will get a lot of looks in a pass-first offense with Calvin Johnson getting double and triple teamed. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan go immediately after. That’s probably who I should have taken here in retrospect, but I was really surprised to see Tate fall. Thought it’s too early to go TE since I like my options for the next round. The runningbacks are slim pickings at this point. Guys like Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Lamar Miller are going around here and I don’t want any of those guys on my roster. Danny Woodhead went #82, who I was looking to pick up in later rounds. With the options at RB right now, I rather go with a rookie like Davonte Freeman or Carlos Hyde later.

8.) Kyle Rudolph (TE) – #94 – I got the guy I wanted here. Olson and Pitta went a few picks before me in this round, but Rudolph was the guy I want and then I would be happy with either Olson or Pitta. I liked this group more than Cameron Jordan, who went #74. Norv Turner loves using TEs like he did in San Diego with Antonio Gates and the did with Cameron Jordan last year in Cleveland. Rudolph also has redzone upside. I’m feeling a breakout season for Rudolph. If he turns out to be a bust, I grabbed Zach Ertz a few rounds later.

9.) Russell Wilson (QB) – #99 – I waited and waited on QB since there’s not one particular guy outside of Manning, Brees, and Rodgers who I was really sold on. I was targeting Philip Rivers, but he goes a pick before me at #98. I love Rivers’ consistency. He’s a lock for 4,000 yards and 26 TDs. I’m more than happy to take Russell Wilson. He’s been having  phenomenal preseason. The guy is just a football player and should only be getting better in his 3rd season. He’s a guy who had 26 TDs in each of his two seasons. Wilson gets no love in fantasy since he doesn’t throw for a ton of yards. However, what he doesn’t get in passing yards, he makes up with rushing yards. He ran for 489 as a rookie and then 539 in his second season. He also ran it in 4 times as a rookie and once last year. He has a new weapon in Percy Harvin who has tons of upside and will help those passing numbers increase. Wilson was the 8th best QB last season. I don’t know why he gets no love. He’ll be a top 10 QB again this year. Kaepernick has fallen way down my draft broad and way down in this draft. I’m happy to pass on Kaepernick to take Russell Wilson. Wilson will have a better fantasy season than Cam Newton, Kaepernik, and RGIII. There’s my bold prediction for the year.

10.) Carlos Hyde (RB) – #118 – I got one of the two rookie RBs I was targeting. I don’t see Frank Gore being the 49ers feature back in the second half of the season. I see Hyde becoming the man in San Fran by Week 10. Hyde may get very few touches to start the season. I see what begins at 5 touches per game increase to 15-20 touches per game towards the end of the season once Gore begins to wear down. Another rookie I liked is Davonte Freeman who went #112. There are literally no good runningbacks to take after Round 3. You can take a Ray Rice or Chris Johnson in Round 4 if you need an RB. After Round 5, I don’t see any RB worth a mid-round pick. The rookie RBs offer way more upside and value.

11.) Zach Ertz (TE) – #123 – I have high expectations for Ertz going into this season. He showed tons of upside in his rookie season, but it didn’t really show up on the stat sheet. This pick was because I think Ertz has a ton of upside in his second year in Chip Kelly’s offense. I got great value and I’m not entirely sold on Kyle Rudolph so this is insurance if Rudolph is a complete bust. Ertz has great chemistry with Nick Foles and he’s a potential breakout candidate and could turn into a stud TE this year. His ceiling can be 800-900 yards yards and 8 TDs. His floor should be 600 yards and 5 TDs.

12.) Saints (D/ST) – #142 – I was targeting the Bengals D/ST, but they got taken earlier.  A D/ST could have waited, but there’s nobody on the board that I’m drooling over. Saints showed some flashes of being a strong D/ST at the beginning of the season, but then faded later in the season. I like the addition of Jarius Byrd at safety. Brandon Cooks or Jarius Byrd returning punts also gives the D/ST some additional upside.

13.) Josh Gordon (WR) – #147 – The guy may be able to play this year. He was the #1 WR in the game last year. He got 10+ receptions, 200+ yard back-to-back games in 2013. He was insane. If Gordon is suspended just 8 games of the season, I have a stud wide receiver for a fantasy playoff push. If you pair Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Cordarelle Patterson together at No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, that looks dangerous on paper.

14.) James White (RB) – #166 – James “Sweet Feet” White is getting rave reviews in camp. His Wisconsin highlight reel is ridiculous as were his college stats. I’m handcuffing him to Vereen in case of an injury to Vereen. The White/Vereen combo may also send Ridley to the bench. White has breakout potential if Ridley gets benched or injured.

15.) Carson Palmer (QB) – #171 – I’m loving Palmer as a Round 15 backup QB, especially to a guy like Wilson. Palmer can be started in favorable matchups and has the most upside among backup QBs (compared to the likes of Roethlisberger, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco). Palmer struggled against strong defenses last year, but lit up bad ones. The Cardinals are going to throw a lot this season. Michael Floyd is emerging as a deep threat and stud WR. Fitzgerald is a possession monster. Andre Ellington can pick up chunks of yards with dump-off passes and looks poised for a breakout season. Rookie WR John Brown is also making a splash. I’m liking what this rookie speedster has the ability to add to the Cardinals passing attack. The Cardinals invested a 3rd rounder in him despite coming out of Pittsburgh State. He hauled in 87 yards on 5 receptions in his preseason debut and added a 30-yard TD in the third preseason game. Palmer is in a great spot to top his yardage totals from last year. You can argue putting the Cardinals offense in the top 10 after the likes of the Broncos, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Bears, Lions, and Patriots.

16.) Blair Walsh (K) – #190 – He’s a kicker. He has a strong leg. He’s on an improving offensive team (e.g., Cordarelle Patterson, Norv Turner, Healthy Rudolph) that may pick up yards, buts struggles to get it in the end zone.