SMART BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4

After last weekend we are  moving in the right direction with 1.4 units of profit, bringing my overall loss to 2.6 units for the year. As a recent poster said, this a marathon and I have been known to finish strong so I have no problems with the slow start.

Week 4: I am releasing my plays very early as I want you to get the best line as possible. I will give detailed analysis of each game, but these are the games I am on. One thing before the pick, I have not had time to do a detailed analysis of suspensions or injuries, but I am not aware of any major issues in any of these games.

The Plays:

South Carolina (+3) vs Auburn for 2 units. This game lines up with several other games I am playing this week. One thing I like to look for, especially with underdogs, is comparing what the two teams do well and where are the weaknesses.  Both defenses are stout so this should be a low scoring affair.  Auburn rushes the ball very well going for over 250 yds. per contest.  However, SC’s run defense has been a wall, giving up only an average of 60 yds on the ground.  Look for a real defensive battle on that line when Auburn attempts to establish that rushing attack, got to give the advantage to SC with that incredible defense.  Auburn’s D, while impressive, is giving up an average of 21 points per (26, 14, 24) while SC’s D has given up an average of 12 (13, 6, 19).  SC’s offense has done a great job of controlling the clock and limiting TOs and if they can do that at Auburn they will be in perfect position to win the game outright.  Situation play, Auburn is potentially on a hangover from that shocking come from behind win verse Clemson last week.  It is really difficult to put all that effort into coming from behind and grabbing that dramatic win and then coming back the next week and elevating that level of play to beat an even better squad in SC. Auburn is a tough place to play, but they are beatable there and if SC wants to finally show they are a top team in the SEC then they must win this affair.  I have SC winning 26-22 so I will take the 3 points.  Side note: SC will play inspired ball on Saturday after the death of Kenny McKinley.

Kentucky (+14) vs Florida for 1 unit. Admittedly, I have been negative on this Florida unit for most of the early part of the year.  Even though it hasn’t been pretty they are sporting a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record.  However, in my opinion, this will be a really tough test for Florida when they take on red hot KY. KY is sporting 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record this year.  Their offense has been unreal, averaging almost 500 yds in total offense, including a well balanced attack of rushing (242yds per) and passing (255yds per).  What has been more impressive about KY is that their defense has been just as solid holding opponents to 257 yds per and only 18pts.  Compare that to FL who is putting up just over 300 yds in total offense and giving up on defense 276 yds per and only 14pts.  Those stats alone tell me we have a pretty evenly matched affair that should be exciting to watch.  Situation factors to note: (1) On deck for FL a visit with Alabama next week (potential look ahead), and (2) Revenge factor for KY from the embarrassing loss last year at home vs FL (most the players on KY were present for that loss).  KY will have to play a great game to win this one outright, but I wouldn’t be surprised. I have been predicting a let down for this FL team since week 1, but this may just be the right spot to jump on a live dog catching 2 TDs.

Central Michigan (+8) vs Northwestern for 1 unit. This line has moved substantially since my post back on Tuesday as it currently stands at +6.5.  CMU takes a big class jump to face Northwestern, but I do believe they could be up to the task.  I think CMU’s gameplan for this affair should be pretty similar to their successfully executed plan against Temple.  Their defense has been stout giving up only 250 yds per contest.  On offense their passing game as been very successful even with the loss of their senior QB a year ago to the pros. If you jumped on this line early you should be in good position for a hard fought affair.

Army (+6) at Duke for 1 unit. As I stated above, one thing I look for when playing an underdog is if they have the talent and ability to exploit a weakness of the favorite. In the present game, Army is at its best when running the football and controlling the clock. Army rushes for about 280 yds per contest, while Duke has given up over 220 yds rushing per contest.  After last week’s showing verse Alabama I expect Duke to be focused, but when a team is this bad in area more focus usually isn’t enough to cut it. I fully expect Army to dominate control of the ball and stick firmly to that potent running attack.

Oregon State at Boise State (-17) for 1 unit. Unless Boise suffers a loss all of my analysis for their games will pretty much be the same. OSU is a solid team and may even surprise people with finishing 2nd or 3rd in the PAC 10, but they are not as well polished as Boise.  Playing at Boise is seems to change teams and players, not sure that it is the blue turf or just the realization that Boise is way better than they ever thought.  Statement game on National TV on Saturday night for Boise.  All eyes will be on Boise as it is their last chance to make a point to all viewers that they deserve to play for the National Title. Plus this is their first home game of the season, look for them to open with a huge win.

Nevada (-4) at BYU for 1 unit. Similar analysis as the Army game, Nevada is the best rushing team in the nation with an absolutely sick pistol offense.  Their weakness over the years has come in their secondary and pass defense.  This year they are much improved giving up about 250 yrds per contest, not great, but improving.  The key for me is the lack of talent at the QB position for BYU.  Neither QB in their two QB system seems to have that arm strength and ability to throw accurately.  If BYU cannot establish the pass, NV will win big.

Temple vs Penn State UNDER (total has not been posted I am looking for anything around 45 or higher) for 1 unit. The line came out today at 43. I am deciding to stay away, but would still lean towards the under.

I will update this post with detailed analysis of all games posted. I just got these out there asap so you could get the best line. You won’t get that service even if you pay top dollar.