Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Look for Julius Peppers to force Manning into some bad decisions.

ATL and TEN didn’t pan out. I only played ATL since AJAY talked me out of the DEN pick. Thank you sir. You won that one. Well played. Orton is legit. I can’t believe this guy went from “let’s limit this guy to less than 20 throws so he doesn’t lose the game” to “let’s put the ball in his hands 50 times a game so he can win it.” Kyle Orton: the best QB not named Brady or Manning? Should we get used to it? I thought lightning couldn’t strike again for him and it did. Chris Johnson also had two costly fumbles.

In the ATL game, I apologize for not forecasting a blocked punt that led to a TD. Without that play, ATL would have had the cover. I warned everyone this morning to be cautious about those two plays. That’s why I hedged my bets and placed a small bet on the Rams after talking to Brandon this morning. He posted that pick up this morning along with San Diego, so in addition to two big winners on Saturday, he delivered two more big wins today. I followed him with the San Diego pick at 4:00, which I was also high on, and along with the Rams pick, made up for the Atlanta loss.

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are favored by this much. They’ve been absolutely horrendous. Their defense, which is usually strong, has been abysmal, giving up 28 PPG. I can understand the Giants being favored since they’re at home and perhaps “due for a win” just like the Browns were “due for a win” this week and the 49ers were “due for a win” (they almost beat Atlanta, but they ended up with the cover).

I don’t see that happening since they’ve been really, really, really bad the last two weeks. I’m expecting Julius Peppers to be in Manning’s face the entire game, forcing Eli Manning to make some bad throws and having the ball end up in the Bears hands. Eli is very apt to turning over the ball when pressured. Since the Giants won’t be able to run the ball against the best run defense in the league, the Giants will have to pass a lot and the Bears pass rush will bring it.

On the offensive side, the Bears passing game has been on point, even against a tough D like the Packers. The Giants have the 4th ranked passing defense though, but that’s with facing a weak Panthers team in week 1 and then a Titans team in week 3 that did nothing but run on them, so I’m not giving too much faith in those numbers. The bottom line is that the Giants are struggling while the Bears are on fire.

I’m not going to be overly confident in the Bears because of what happened to the Falcons. These “hangover” games that we speak of really do play out. When a team has a big thrilling victory the previous week, they just tend to come out flat. I just think the Bears are the play and they’re getting points. They should win outright, but even if they lose by 3, you’re still in the money. The spread shows just how confident Vegas is in the Giants. Do they know something?

Prediction: Bears 24 – Giants 17

Pick Against the Spread: Bears +3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)