NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

To all the haters, you have to acknowledge that I nailed that Cowboys vs. Redskins game. I was all about the Redskins D going into this game and they made it a close game throughout, so you were feeling good with the 3.5 points on your side. The Redskins have a top 5 defense — no doubt about it. I also recommended a teaser of Redskins +10.5 and under 51.5 points. With the Monday night win, I came out on top in week 3. While I listed Lions and Chargers as my top picks in week 3, if you caught my final word before kickoff, you saw that I avoided the Chargers due to the high spread and changed my top pick at 1:00 from the Lions to the Panthers. The Panthers ended up hitting and the Lions failed to cover by a half point. Onto week 4.

FOREWORD: I have three road favorites on tap this week. I hate going with too many road favorites because every now and then you get burned. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they miss. See the Ravens. They were upset by the Titans in week 2, but won as road favorites against the Rams in week 3. The Steelers also fell into the road favorite trap last week. If you’re looking for points, games where I like the points are Miami +7.5 over San Diego and Carolina +7 over Chicago. It’s going to be an interesting week in the NFL.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

With the Jaguars non-existent offense, you have to go Saints on the road. The Saints are putting points up at will. How will the Jaguars keep up? There’s no way the Jaguars score more than 17-20 points. With the Saints due for at least 24, it should be an easy cover. The spread varies on this game from 6.5-7.5 so shop around for the best spread.

Prediction: Saints 30 – Jaguars 17

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -7 (Confidence: 4/5)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams offense has had their fair share of struggles so far this season with a 12 PPG average. It doesn’t help when your first four games are against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Redskins. I love this Redskins defense. They are the real deal. The Rams should be held to 13 points and the Redskins should cruise to an easy victory. This spread should be more like Redskins -3.5. It looks like Vegas is luring the public into betting on the Redskins. What does Vegas see in the Rams that the public doesn’t? Do they they think the Rams are just due for a win? You tell me. Maybe it’s because the Redskins are 6-19-3 ATS in their last 28 game against a team with a losing record or maybe it’s because the Rams beat the Redskins 30-16 last season in Washington. But wouldn’t that give the Redskins the “revenge game” edge? I’ll be curious to see how this one plays out. This line is very dubious.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: Redskins -1 (Confidence: 4/5)

ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Falcons have been bad on the road this season. However, I’m willing to take this week because their opponent is awful. You can talk about the 12th man all you want, but the Seahawks barely beat a mediocre-to-poor 49ers team at home last week 13-10. I could see the Falcons losing to the Bucs last week. The Bucs are a strong team, it’s a division game, and the Bucs were at home. The Seahawks, on the other hand, don’t have the offense to hang with the Seahawks and don’t have a defense the caliber of the Bucs. This is a must-win game for the Falcons. There are high expectations for this team and they simply cannot drop to 1-3 against the Seahawks. Atlanta visited Seattle last year and stomped them 34-18 as 5.5-point favorites with Matt Ryan throwing 3 TDs. 8 of those points came in “garbage time” when the Falcons already had the 34-10 lead. I see a similar type of beatdown this week.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Seahawks 13

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -4.5 (Confidence: 4/5)