Week 8 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

Last week our picks went 8-5 ATS. If not for a half-point miss by the Bears due a late garbage TD, it could have put us at 9-4 ATS and made for a very strong week. There’s plenty of games to dissect this week and lots of opportunities to tease lines to where I like them. Patriots/49ers looks like a solid teaser, as well as Redskins (+11.5)/Under 53 @ Pittsburgh where it should be raining on Sunday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-14.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m going to avoid this game due to the high spread, but I’ll have to take the Packers here with the Jags non-existent offense and Maurice Jones-Drew out. I don’t see how the Jags score 10 points, while the Packers should easily put up 24+. Packers (-7.5) may be worth throwing into a teaser as the Packers should have that cover wrapped up easily by the 3rd quarter.

NEW YORK JETS (-1) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 7/10 — The Jets bested the Dolphins earlier this season in Miami. It was a tight game. The Jets have been playing better football over the last three weeks, nearly beating the Patriots on the road last week, destroying the Colts at home, and hanging in there with the Texans. I like the Jets to take this one at home.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — Confidence: 6/10 — I have to take the Chargers here, but this is potentially a trap game. Vegas has been giving the Browns lines that indicates that they believe they are a much stronger team than their 1-6 SU record indicates. The Browns are 3-3-1 ATS. Their first win came via a 34-24 home win over the Bengals. The Browns won’t lay down to anyone, but I do expect the Chargers to pull this one out on the road, especially since they’re coming off the bye week.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts — Confidence: 6/10 — The public is split here 50/50 and I could go either way with this one. The Titans have been playing solid football over the last two weeks by beating the Steelers at home and then the Bills on the road. Chris Johnson is starting to run again like that runningback that we all know. The Colts have only played on the road twice this year against the Bears and Jets, and both games got ugly for them.

New England Patriots (-7) over St. Louis Rams — Confidence: 7/10 — This game will be played in London. I like the Pats here. The Rams offense won’t be able to keep up with the Patriots here. Can take over 40 or under 54 if you want to tease this and take the Pats straight up. The total should be within the 40-54 range.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Atlanta Falcons — Confidence: 6/10 — Both teams are off their bye week. I’m an Eagles fan and the only reason I’ll take the Eagles in this spot is because Andy Reid is 13-0 off the bye week. The Eagles have historically played their worst football in the first half of the season and their best football in the second half of the season.

Carolina Panthers (+9) over CHICAGO BEARS — Confidence: 6/10 — With a Bears conservative offense and superb defense, I expect a low-scoring one. We saw that play out on Monday Night when they faced the Lions. The final was 13-7. I would look to tease the total to under 50 and take the Bears (-2) or Panthers (+16) based on your preference. However, last year the final score between these teams was 34-29 Bears, so you never know what you’ll get with an unpredictable Panthers team. The Panthers can give up a lot of points and their offense can strike right back, but I would still lean under. The Panthers are desperate for a win and desperation is a stinky cologne.

DETROIT LIONS (-1) over Seattle Seahawks — Confidence: 7/10 — I don’t have a whole lot of faith in the Lions just yet and they’ll be up against a strong defense. The Seahawks have the advantage of some extra rest. The Seahawks played on Thursday and the Lions played on Monday. The Seahawks are 1-3 SU on the road this season. I’ll stick with the Lions at home, but the Seahawks can pull off the upset with their defense and the 4 extra days of rest.

Washington Redskins (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS — Confidence: 6/10 — Not a whole lot of rhyme or reason to picking the Redskins here, I’m just going to put some blind faith in RGIII to keep this one close. The Redskins got robbed of a win last week in New York because their secondary blew the coverage on Victor Cruz with two minutes left. If we get some bad weather in Pittsburgh, we may see a low-scoring game. The Steelers conservative game-plan in the rain will allow the Redskins to stay in the game. With the over/under at 46, tease this to Under 53 with Redskins (+11.5). It should play out like the Eagles game where the Steelers won 16-14.

Oakland Raiders (+1) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS — Confidence: 5/10 — Two bad teams who I just want to stay away from. After Doug Martin destroyed me Thursday Night in my fantasy matchup, I’m going to need a big game from Run DMC. I’ll be hoping he delivers a monster game to match Martin’s 200+ rushing and receiving yards and 2 TDs. I wish, he’s been horrible this year.

New York Giants (-1) over DALLAS COWBOYS — Confidence: 7/10 — This is the game the public is pounding the most this week as 71% of the money is on the G-Men. The Giants have been playing strong with three straight wins while the Cowboys have been somewhat disappointing this season starting out 3-3. The Giants have won three straight games in Dallas and all I have to say is that the trend is your friend. Although the Cowboys bested the Giants in week 1, Eli Manning wasn’t in his groove at that point in the season. Now he is and he’s torn Dallas a new one every time he travels to Dallas.

New Orleans Saints (+6) over DENVER BRONCOS — Confidence: 6/10 — The Saints are back with two straight wins and two games scoring over 30 points. If Broncos pull this one out, it should be by 3-4 points, but I give the Saints a good shot at the outright win so I’ll favor the (+6).

San Francisco 49ers (-7) over ARIZONA CARDINALS — Confidence: 6/10 — I’m going to continue to hate against the Cardinals and trust that the 49ers D shuts them down completely. The 49ers held the Seahawks to 6, the Bills to 3, and the Jets to 0. The 49ers offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, but should be able to score enough to land the cover. You can tease this to under 45 and 49ers straight up, which looks like a solid ticket. 49ers win 13-3. What a miserable Monday Night game to have to sit through. I wish Giants and Cowboys were featured on Monday Night.