2013 NFL Week 3 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

This week was a success in the NFL for me. I hit on my top game in the Broncos (-4.5) over the Giants, and I split my other pair in winning Cowboys (+3), but losing on Saints (-4). The write-up held true: I knew the Bucs would keep it close being at home in a division game, but I had to take a shot on Saints in this spot based on their respective week 1 play. As long as I hit the big one, I’m happy, and that’s what happened.

The Bengals (-6.5) then capped off a solid week on Monday Night. I think I’m going to continue pounding the Steelers and may ride the Seahakws minus whatever at home from here on out. A lot of tough games this week with road dogs looking to deliver a slew of upsets. Miami +1 vs. Falcons, Panthers +1 vs. Giants, Ravens +1 vs. Texans, Bengals +2.5 vs. Packers. A few of those home favorites will cover. Watch out.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs

The flawed Eagles D that I was talking about in week 1 reared its ugly head. The Eagles could not stop the Chargers on third down to save their life. The Chargers punted maybe once in that game if my memory serves me correct. I liked how their D looked in Week 1, but they just didn’t show up this week. Being at home back-to-back on a short week should help the Eagles. Their offense has also looked outstanding in both weeks. They could have one of the league’s top offenses if they keep this up. If they got just one or two more stops on 3rd down, they would have had that game. Chiefs are 2-0, they’ve played two good games. They’ve scored when they need to and their defense get stops. I’m counting on the Eagles offense to outplay the Chiefs defense and the Eagles D should be able to step up this week against Alex Smith.

PICK: Eagles (-3) – Confidence: 6/10

Houston Texans (-1) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

My first thought was, the public must be pounding the Texans. 82% of the action has started out on the Texans. I don’t see a reason for the spread to be this low. I would say Texans should be (-3.5) favorites. The Ravens offense this season has been very poor. Maybe Vegas liked the way their defense played this week. Texans have some defensive kinks to work out, but I think they’ll get it together against Ravens. This could be a classic Vegas “home dog” trap.

PICK: Texans (-1) – Confidence: 7/10

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1) over New York Giants

I’ve picked the Panthers twice, and they’ve let me down. They had the game against the Bills won 23-17 if it wasn’t for a pass interference penalty with 14 second left. They just barely lost to the Seahawks and then blew a lead to the Bills to lose in that one. 75% of the public likes the Giants, but I’m going against the grain. I can see exactly why the public is going Giants — another “home dog” trap. This time I’m going with the underdog the public is pounding. The risk here and what the public is thinking is that Eli and Giants receivers completely light up the Panthers secondary. I see that, I get that. I was trying to use the 0-2 team at home in a “must win” game as justification, but the Giants are 0-2 as well. They need this win just as bad. My head is telling me take the Giants, but my gut is saying take the Panthers.

PICK: Panthers (+1) – Confidence: 6/10

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1) over Detroit Lions

Lions just can’t seem to win games on the road. Calvin Johnson will get his, but the defense just can’t seem to step up for him. The Redskins D has gotten lit up twice this season so far by the Packers and Eagles and will have another high-powered offense to take on. My play on this game is the over 48.5. I’m expecting a lot of big plays in this game and a lot of TDs. Teasing the game to 40.5 to add on the Redskins (+7) seems like the way to play this game. If the Redskins are going to lose this game and break their fans hearts by going 0-3 to start the season, they may as well do it in a close game.

PICK: Redskins (-1) – Confidence: 6/10

San Diego Chargers (+3) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Both teams have surprised a lot of people with their play. The Chargers offense has been on fire with the play of Philip Rivers. Although he has a group of role players and may be without Malcolm Floyd who left the Eagles game with a neck injury, he’s always able to find the open man whether that’s Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead, Eddie Royal, or Vincent Brown. I like the Chargers offense to outplay the Titans, but the Chargers defense will give up a handful of points, which is a good reason to avoid them this week.

PICK: Chargers (+3) – Confidence: 7/10

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) over St. Louis Rams

Cowboys are coming off a 17-16 road loss to the Chiefs, the Rams are coming off a beatdown on the road against the Falcons (but they fought back a little). I like the Cowboys coming back home agaPinst a team who will be on back-to-back road games.

PICK: Cowboys (-3.5) – Confidence: 7/10

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

The good news for these teams is that one of them will get their first win this week. The Vikings have had two heartbreakers. Losing to the Bears 31-30 after barely losing to the Lions. Those are two tough teams and they were on the road twice. They now come home to take on a 0-2 team that has struggled offensively. The Browns D has looked decent and will definitely keep them within reach at (-3.5). I really like the Vikings to win, but won’t be surprised at all if it’s merely by a field goal. Adrian Peterson, you’re going to have to put the team on your back this week to get this victory. This game opened at (-3.5) until it moved to (-6.5) after Brandon Weeden has been ruled out and Trent Richardson was traded to the Colts. The Browns defense may keep the score low, but you can count on the Browns offense doing nothing without a QB and RB. Highly confidence with Vikings in their home opener.

PICK: Vikings (-6.5) – Confidence: 8/10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I’m taking the Bucs. After taking the Jets (+11) over the Patriots and nailing it, I see this as another good opportunity to take points. The Patriots were terrible against high spreads last year and they’re getting the same high spreads even though their offense isn’t what it used to be and is frankly quite poor. Shane Vereen was an important piece for that offense and he’s gone for the season. Danny Amendola will likely sit this one out and may need surgery and Gronk probably won’t be back until week 4. Brady and his young receivers (other than Julian Edelman) were out of sync last week. All the Bucs have to do is shut down Edelman and they’ll have Revis Island to do just that. The Bucs just held the Saints offense to 16 points! Now the Bucs offense won’t do much as they looked poor against the Jets and Saints. I may do another teaser like I did last time and take Bucs (+16.5) with the under (50.5). The spread has since moved to (+7) or (+7.5), which I still ike

PICK: Buccaneers (+9.5) – Confidence: 8/10

Atlanta Falcons (+2) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Vegas is teasing you like crazy this week with these road favorites, but this time giving the team that should be favored 2 points. 71% of the public is taking the Falcons. They’re in love with the Falcons. Have you seen that offense? Julio Jones? The Dolphins defense is legit and offense can make plays. Tannehill has improved a lot. He turned in a 104 QB rating, throwing for over 300 yards and adding a TD against the Colts on the road. Vegas must have a lot of faith in that team to make them mere (-2) favorites against the Hotlanta Falcons. How can you not like Atlanta over Miami though? I’ll put this on upset alert, but I’m initially going Falcons here.

PICK: Falcons (+2) – Confidence: 6/10

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

I like the Packers in this spot even as a road favorite. Packers nearly topped the 49ers on the road. I think they can get it done on the road against the Bengals.

PICK: Packers (-2.5) – Confidence: 7/10

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Bills got a big win at home against the Carolina Panthers after just barely losing to the Patriots. With the respective offenses and defenses, Vegas has the over/under at 39. I’m seeing this go under as well. I like the Bills to win a close one. If I’m going to play this game, I would tease it to Bills (+8) with the under 46. E.J. Manuel has a tough defensive test, but he should outplay Geno Smith and has the benefit of a better running game with the Bills. I see the Bills winning 13-10, 20-17 tops. A 24-23 win or even a 24-17, 20-13, or 17-10 loss keeps them in the money.

PICK: Bills (+2.5) – Confidence: 7/10

Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

I was eyeing this game up as a potential game to take before I saw the spread. I would have no problem laying -7 to take the 49ers, but -10.5 is too much for me. The 49ers defense should be dominant. I love is the defensive mismatch. The Colts D has been disappointing. They didn’t have an answer for the Raiders running game. Kaepernick, Gore, Boldin, and Davis should be rolling like they looked week 1 against the Packers. I wish the domination from the Seahawks would set up a more favorable spread, but that’s just not the case. At (+10.5) I actually have to lean Colts. The Colts offense should have enough to keep this respectable. 49ers win by 7-10.

PICK: Colts (+10.5) – Confidence: 6/10

SEATLLE SEAHAWKS (-19) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Blow out city. Give me the Seahawks minus whatever. The Jaguars have scored 11 points in their first two games by getting beaten up by the Chiefs 28-2 and lost 19-9 to the Raiders. The Jaguars will not score this game and the Seahawks will have plenty of opportunities to score points. I have 38-0 in mind.

PICK: Seahawks (-19) – Confidence: 8/10

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) over Arizona Cardinals

The Saints haven’t blown out the Falcons or Bucs, so I may shy away from this spread. You need to count on the Saints dominating to want to lay the chalk. The Cardinals have a respectable team that is capable of hanging in there if their defense steps up. I’ll lean Saints, but not crazy about it with the spread. The spread has since moved from Saints (-9) to Saints (-7.5) so the public is also like the Cardinals with the big points.

PICK: Saints (-7.5) – Confidence: 6/10

Chicago Bears (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

DA BEARS. Steelers offense is pathetic without a ground game. I really like the Bears here, but will another home dog prevail? The Steelers would go 0-3 if they lose this one, but that’s how it’s looking unless their offense is able to get something going.

PICK: Bears (-2.5) – Confidence: 8/10

DENVER BRONCOS (-14) over Oakland Raiders

Broncos offense has lit up the Ravens and Giants in the last two weeks, so why wouldn’t you think the Raiders are going to get blown out here? I hate high spreads, but this could be Blow Out City. I respect the Raiders though. I drafted Run DMC in Round 5 of every single fantasy draft I’m in and so far very happy with the results. Him and Pryor are a perfecting combination out of that backfield. They have the opportunity to keep this game within two touchdowns if they can pick up first downs together and control the clock. The Raiders have done an excellent job running the football with Pryor. Pryor didn’t thrown the ball well this week with just 126 passing yards, but he didn’t turn the football over and gained 50 yards on 9 rushes.

PICK: Broncos (-14) – Confidence: 7/10