PHILLIPS’ WEEK 9 PARLAY PLAY

I have put together 10 games that appear to me be strong solid plays. I will list the picks in order of strength with 1 being the strongest play and 10 being the weakest play, but remember I like all these picks. There is only a quick description of the games. I will be posting home dog plays later this week with more detailed analysis. So here we go:

1. Boston College (+3) at UNC: BC is playing great and UNC is coming off a tough loss on the road verse Virginia. Looking at the stats BC dominates in average total yards, time of possession, causing turnovers, and BC’s defense allows over 100 yards less per contest then UNC’s defense. Take the points.

2. Auburn (+3.5) at WVU (notice this game is on Thursday): This game should be very tight. Auburn dominates time of possession which will be important in keeping White off the field. They are causing at least 2 turnovers a game and hold their opposition to around 100 yards rushing per game. Take the points.

3. Middle Tennessee St at Mississippi State (-11): This simply comes down to the poor performance of MTS on the road 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They have allowed an average of 31 points on the road and have only managed to score an average of 18. On the other hand, MSU has played well at home allowing less than 10 points and causing at least 2 turnovers and going 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. MSU should control the ball and simply dominate this game.

4. Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-24): I know this is a big line, but Ball State has been on fire. I have been following them and making money off them since last year, so I am not just jumping on board because they have made the Top 25. They are not only 7-0 SU, but a perfect 6-0 ATS. EMU is giving up almost 33 points on average on the road and only scoring about an average of 18. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road. With a week off look for Ball State to come back focused and EMU shouldn’t pose to much of a challenge.

5. Duke at Vandy (-9.5): Vandy is not as good as they seemed at the start of the year, but they are still a solid football team. Duke is having a good season by their standards, but they haven’t had to play on the road that much and coming off a pounding at the hands of Miami I believe they are in store for another blowout. Vandy is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home.

6. Baylor at Nebraska (-11): Nebraska looked solid at Iowa State last week after a tough loss at TexTech. Now they finally return home. Baylor got pounded by OKST and now go back on the road. Baylor is just not that solid of a football team and Nebraska is playing solid fundamental football right now.

7. S. Florida at Louisville (+5): Louisville plays much better at home and their stats are almost identical to S. Florida. Louisville will be focused and play tough D throughout. S. Florida has played decent on road, but I think if Louisville can play solid run defense as they have throughout the year then this game will be won in the trenches and I give the edge to Louisville in that category. Take the points.

8. Rice at Tulane (-2): Rice has been terrible on the road, giving up an average of 47 points per. Tulane hasn’t been great, but both of their wins have come at home. Rice’s D is giving up almost 500 yards per. Tulane should win this game with ease.

9. Bowling Green at Norther Illinois (-8): NIU has been rocked solid at home this year, 3-0 SU, and allowing just over a touchdown while scoring almost 35 per. BG’s D is giving up over 21 points on the road. I just see NIU playing strong D and making good decisions to get the win.

10. Penn State at Ohio State (+2): There aren’t a lot of stats to argue in favor of OSU covering, but I don’t think PSU has been playing at as high a level as they were at the beginning of the year and they definetly haven’t played anyone as good as OSU. I think this comes down to PSU’s ability to contain Pryor as OSU has been a much better team with him as the QB. The second aspect of this game comes down to PSU’s offense and OSU’s ability to control this high scoring offense. However, I just believe Tressel will have the better game plan and OSU will get the win. It has been a long time since PSU has won at OSU.