Phillips’ Week 10 NCAA Underdog Plays

I have already covered these picks below, but for those only following my underdog plays I posted them here:

1. West Virginia at Connecticut(+4): Both teams are coming off great wins last week. Again these teams match-up pretty well statistically, however I give a slight advantage to UCONN as they hold the edge in total yards and passing. Both teams play solid defense and that will play an important role in this game. UCONN’s run defense has been very tough holding their opponents to less than 75 yards rushing per, which is critical as WVU ran all over a very tough Auburn defense. I like the fact that WVU 0-2 on the road and UCONN is 5-0 at home. Take UCONN plus the points. (Rating +1) WVU 35 UCONN 13

2. Air Force at Army (+10): This should be another very tight competitive game. AF is having one of their better years, but Army has come on as of late. They have won 3 of 4 after losing their first four games, with the one loss coming on the road in OT. You have to give a slight edge in defense to Army as they allow only about 116 yards rushing compared to AF’s almost 150 per game. The real question comes down to the passing game. These teams rarely pass the ball, but AF has a better aerial attack than Army. I still see this game being a controlled possession game with Time of Possession playing a critical role. Take the points with Army as they should be able to keep this game close. (Rating +1) AF 16 ARMY 7 

3. Tulsa at Arkansas(+7): While Arkansas is not that good of a team they are still by far the best team Tulsa has played all year. Secondly, even though I don’t normally put much weight on the history of the match-ups, Tulsa hasn’t beaten Arkansas in the last 10 meetings. While Tulsa has probably the most explosive offense in the nation, they have put up those numbers against terrible teams. Arkansas is pretty strong against the pass allowing less than 200 yards per game, which is very respectable. Arkansas offense is nothing to brag about, but they will be able to score against Tulsa’s weak defense, which should make this game pretty close. I actually think Arkansas pulls the upset, but take the points. (Rating +3) ARK 30 TUL 23 

4. BYU at Colorado St (+14.5): BYU is coming off its first loss and there may be some lingering effects. CSU has actually played pretty well at home averaging 24 points and over 250 yards of passing offense. Their defense at home has been much better giving up almost 10 points less, while BYU’s defense on the road has not been as good giving almost a touchdown more on the road. CSU will have to avoid turnovers and take care of the ball, but they should be able to keep this one pretty close. Take the points with the home-dog. (Rating +3). BYU 45 CSU 42

5. Rice at UTEP (+2.5): Rice’s offense has definetly been explosive putting up big numbers. However, the key to this may be the poor performance of Rice’s defense on the road. Giving up over 40 points per contest on the road. UTEP is coming off a bye week and should definetly be ready for Rice. Rice is playing the second consecutive road game. Comparing the teams UTEP has put up better offensive and defensive numbers than Rice has on the road. UTEP should win this game outright, but take the couple points. (Rating +4) RICE 49 UTEP 44

6. Utah at New Mexico (+7.5): NM will have their hands full with this talented and tough Utah team. However, NM has been very solid at home. Their defense has been better at home and their offense is scoring almost a TD more. I think Vegas has hinted their hand a little here by putting this spread at this level. If Utah was as good as “experts” say then it should be a little higher. Take the points here and be on alert for a big upset. (Rating +4). UTAH 13 NM 10