NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -11

I like the Steelers to cover, but the field conditions may lend itself to a low-scoring game, which would then favor the +11. I wouldn’t bet on this one until you know how Pittsburgh field will be. It’s notorious for getting bad. The Bengals and Eagles went 13-13 after 75 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers win in a 23-13 game. The Bengals offense is really bad and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers shut them out.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3

I’ll go with the Browns at home. Quinn is looking good and Texans just can’t seem to win anything.  Update: Quinn messed up a finger, check up on that.

BUFFALO BILLS -3 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I like the Chiefs in what should be an ugly game. I’m definitely not counting on the Bills (1-5 in their last 6) to win this one on the road.

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -5

The Jets have a great opportunity to hand the Titans their first loss, but I don’t see it happening in Tennessee. As Brandon says, never bet against a streak and I say that the Titans still have a goose-egg in the loss column and win by a TD or two. Titans 24-14.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -1.5

The Patriots have been able to win games, but the Dolphins have been winning game. They’ve won four in a row and I like them at home. This is a great spot to take the Dolphins as you don’t even have to lay down a touchdown. I still always am hesitant when I say bet the Dolphins though. Are they due for a let down? I’ll probably go 2 units on the Dolphins.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -10

The Cowboys will finally be able to get that high scoring offense back against this defense. I don’t see the Cowboys D giving up much. They’ll be jacked up to have Romo back in his first home game since returning from the finger injury. Cowboys 31-13. I think this is a good spread to take. I don’t see this one being too close. The 49ers only almost winning @ Arizona and then winning 35-16 against the Rams does give them a little momentum to at least cover, but they got beat by 12 against the Giants, and this should be a similar beating.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -8.5 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions were able to fight last week, which was surprising, but they still fell to the tough Panthers. I don’t see them winning this one, not against the Bucs defense. The Bucs offense still only averages 21 points, which means the Bucs only need 13 points to cover the Bucs average offense, but let’s be serious, the Lions defense will give up tons of points. I’m just saying the Bucs play close games. I don’t see the Bucs running it up on the Lions. I think they can definitely cover, and probably will, but I’m staying away from this one.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -1

I feel like the Eagles are being fed to the Lions after a demoralizing loss. If the Eagles lose this one, fans will be calling for McNabb and Andy’s head. They better prepare for dog fight.

CHICAGO BEARS -8.5 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

At first I liked the Bears to cover, but after that routing in Green Bay, I’m not too confident in taking them.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5

The Jaguars are having problems winning games at home. I see this one as a toss up, either one of them is capable of coming out on top, but I’m leaning towards the Vikings.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -1

I just think of the ESPN commercials when I think of the NFC South. What a solid conference. This is a great game to watch, but a bad game to bet on. On a neutral field, I would take the Panthers, but with the game in ATL, it’s just too close to call. It should be a great game to watch.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS -9.5

The Broncos look like they have their mojo back, but I just don’t bet on the Broncos anymore, they’ve screwed me too many times in the past. Just a terrible team to bet on.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I’ll take the Redskins, they should beat the Seahawks in solid fashion.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals have the offense to make this an entertaining offensive showing, but it seems like the Giants can outscore just about anyone in 60 minutes. Keep riding the Giants and only give up the 3. We all know how Eli did the last time he played in AZ. Giants 31-24.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5

The Chargers haven’t done anything to impress me in their last two games since the bye. The Colts have won 3 in a row and it looks like their offense is back. Their defense can be a liability at times. Check on the status of Bob Sanders before this game. If he’s in the line up, I like the Colts in what should be a great battle to watch Sunday Night. Take the Colts outright (+115).

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5

I like the Packers in this one. The Saints defense can give any bettor a heart attack. They’re offense should keep up with the Packers, but I see the Packers running away with this one by the middle of the 3rd quarter. I would take the Packers (+125).

BOTTOM LINE

I’m doing a 1 unit parlay on the Colts and Packers. It pays close to 4:1. Unfortunately they’re both on the road, but they’re both much stronger than the opposition in my opinion. They should both be close games.

I would keep riding the Titans. I’ll put 4 units on the Titans. I’m going 3 units on the Giants. 2 units on the Dolphins. 2 units on the Cowboys. 2 units on the Redskins.

1-unit, 11-team teaser (Pays 20:1): Cowboys -3, Giants +4, Titans +2, Bucs -1.5, Steelers -4, Colts +9.5, Packers +9.5, Redskins +3.5, Broncos -2.5, Vikings +9.5.