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Overall, I have not had a very good read on the NFL so far this year, but there are few games I like this weekend.

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): There is no arguing that Tennessee has been great so far this year. Their defense has been strong allowing less than a 100 yards rushing per game and less than 300 overall. Kerry Collins has looked like the leader he once was when playing for Penn State. However, they are not going to win them all. This weekend they take on arguably the best defense in football. The Raven’s D is allowing less than 70 yards rushing per game and only 117 yards passing, that is simply sick. Flacco is doing the one thing he is suppose to be doing, not losing the game. If he continues to make good decisions, play within his ability, and not hold onto the ball for too long in the pocket, then the Ravens will be in a great position to win this game. (Rating +4) Baltimore was in control for most of the game, but the 4th quarter belonged to the Titans. The Titans scored 10 points in the 4th quarter for the win, however we had to settle for the push. Titans 13 Bal. 10.

2. Minnesota at New Orleans (-3): I am playing this game based primarily on Minnesota’s inability to put things together so far this year, especially on the road. They are 0-2 ats and 0-2 su on the road so far this year. The Saints haven’t been great, but are 2-0 ats and 2-0 su at home so far this year. The Saints seem to play inspired ball when playing at home. I think this game comes down …

Since this is the first time posting anything here at thepassrush.com, I thought I would say a little about myself and my betting strategy. I am a soon to be Law school graduate with an interest in Family Law and Corporate Law. My true love is baseball, but seem to have a good handle on college football and college basketball picks. The one thing I know about gambling is that over the years Las Vegas has only lost one bet, home-dogs against the spread, with a win rate of 54%, you need about 52% to break even. Therefore, I always begin the week by looking at home-dogs and working from there. Each week I will give you some home-dogs that I like. So far this year my home dog plays are 17-7 ATS. I will value rate the games (1-5, 5 being the strongest game).

Week 6 Home-Dogs:

1.) BYU @ Utah State (+29): While on paper this game looks like another easy blowout win by BYU, I continue to value home field-advantage. BYU has looked very good this year except for the game at Washington, a 28-27 win. Washington has not proved anything so far this year to back up the strong performance they had against BYU, so either they aren’t playing up to their ability or BYU just didn’t come into the game well enough prepared. Utah State is 2-2 ATS so far this year. While I don’t think they have a chance of winning, they have shown the ability to score points, scoring an average of 23 points per game, so even if they give up 50, they still may be within the number. (Rating +2) It wasn’t pretty and basically we just got lucky, but in …