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NAVY (+7) at Penn State: Too many reasons not to take a chance on Navy in this great spot. First, PSU comes off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia last week. A game they should have won as they benefitted from four Virginia turnovers, but missed four field goals. Second, Navy comes off a bye after playing pretty poorly in Ireland verse ND two weeks ago. Third, PSU is still a depleted football team and facing that triple option of Navy would not be easy for any team. I look for Navy to ground and pound PSU early, which should lead to very close game. Finally, you have to wonder where PSU is mentally after the crazy off-season, a tough loss at home during week 1, and a heartbreaking loss in week 2. Even for a good football team this would be a tough spot. Play 2 units on Navy (+7). Play 1 unit on Navy (+225).

ALABAMA (-20) at Arkansas. Arkansas comes off a very embarrasing loss last week to ULM. Arkansas was ranked in the top 10 and probably had outside hopes of playing in a meaningful bowl game. Now all hope of that is gone so you have to wonder where this team will be mentally when facing arguably the best team in the country. Second, rumors have it that Arkansas’ starting QB will not start. A second string QB against this Alabama defense can only smell trouble. This is pretty much a no brainer. Alabama can simply name the score in this one. Play on Ala for 2 units.

ULM vs AUBURN (-15.5). Basically see above. ULM comes off their best win in school history. I am sure every player on the team lived the high life …

Ball State at CLEMSON (-27.5): I know this is a huge number and generally I stay away from big favorites, but the talent in this game is so lopsided I can’t help myself. I am not just talking about their rankings either. Clemson is bigger, much faster, and more talented on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I don’t believe Clemson should have much of a hangover from beating Auburn, but it is possible. Clemson should have their sights set pretty high this year and it won’t bode them well to stumble here. I believe Clemson dominates start to finish and Ball State will be luck to score more than 10 points. I won’t lay these many points often, but I will here. 1 unit on Clemson.

Duke vs. Stanford OVER 55.5: We all know Stanford is not going to be as good as they were last year, but how much of a dropoff will they really have. In my opinion, significant, but that shouldn’t matter here against Duke. Stanford’s offense was terrible last week against a below average defense in San Jose State. Duke’s defensive, also below average simply cannot stop the run. FIU racked-up 165 rushing yards last week and scored 26 points. I look for Stanford to pound the run early to setup some easy screen passes and the occasional deep play-action score. Duke played the same starting schedule last year, FIU then Stanford, which resulted in a win and a loss; small revenge spot here for Duke. Duke’s offense should score some points here, I believe at least in the low 20s. Stanford’s offense will show some life here against another weak defense. Score Prediction 48-21. 1 unit on the over 55.5.

I won’t …

Glad to be back posting for the 2012 NCAA Football season. Long-time readers of the site know me as the NCAA guy, especially with my Bowl Special from 2010 where my Bowl picks went 9-3 against the spread. I took 2011 off from posting on the site due to work demands, but very glad to be back to continue posting my NCAA picks.

Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI (-5). Thursday night football starts off tonight with a Big East battle between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh comes off a pretty bad loss to Youngstown State, who in all honesty is actually a decent team. The question really comes down to whether Pittsburgh can get up for this game off the bad loss. There is a strong trend to play against first year coaches coming off a loss, 86-120-4 ATS, in the following game. I believe Cincinnati’s defense should handle Pittsburgh’s offense, who was only able to manage 17 points against Youngstown State. I don’t think Pittsburgh is that bad of a team, I just think this spot posses a lot of difficult obstacles for them to overcome. Play on Cincinnati (-5) for 1 unit.

FINAL: Cincinnati 34 – Pittsburgh 10…

Football is over and most of you can’t wait for the season to start again, but who knows we may not see the NFL again till 2012.

While you are waiting, check out our sister sites thetripledouble.com and theonetimer.com. Things are starting to heat up on the hardwood. King and I have been posting NBA and College plays on a daily basis and that should continue until the season ends. I have been working this season on designing  a new accurate computer program that predicts college games against the spread.  While there are several computer or simulation systems out there, very few are specifically tailored to determine the expected spread and then compare the actually line and then produce a winning selection.  The top plays of the SMART BET COMPUTER has prodcued considerable profits, but more impressively t he SMART BET COMPUTER has also produced a daily profit based on selections for every game on the card, currently at about a 60% success rate.

If you are a hockey fan, I have convinced a Vegas local to give me his daily NHL picks.  His first post was terrible, but I have been following his picks for a while now and he consistently produces a profit.

**Keep your bets SMART.…

Jets vs PITTSBURGH (-3.5) for 1 unit.

First off you have to give pretty big props for the Jets to even be in this game.  Winning on the road verse the Colts and the Patriots during the playoffs on back-to-back weeks is an impressive task by any football team.  However, there are several key reasons I believe the Jets come up short on Sunday in Pittsburgh.

(1) Lack of Motivation: I know it doesn’t take a whole lot to get these teams ready to play, but contrary to the previous two games the Jets have played the motivational edge leans towards Pittsburgh.  The flamboyant Jets had reason to trash talk and be highly motivated when going into Indianapolis two weeks ago as Indy had eliminated the Jets last year in the playoffs, so you knew they would be fired up to play in Indy.  The same motivation was there in New England where the Jets had already been blown out once this year; plus you add in all the trash talking that went on through the media and you knew the Jets were going to come to play.  However, this Sunday, the opposite is true. The Jets already beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year and Rex seems to have a bit more respect for the Steelers and has kept his comments to a minimum so far this week.  Teams just don’t beat other NFL teams twice in the same year that often, especially when there is so much riding on the game (as evident by the Jets domination of the Patriots last week).  I just think the Jets need that in your face, high intensity, over the top motivation to play their best. Without that extra edge we …

The Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team …

Sorry this post is late, but there wasn’t not much on the card this weekend that I really liked, but I was able to key in on 3 games one of which is my third GAME OF THE YEAR! 2-0 GOY Record this year.

GAME OF THE YEAR:

ARMY (+8.5) VS Notre Dame: This game is being played at Yankee stadium so there isn’t really a home field advantage for anyone in this game as ND fans travel well, but NY Stadium is closer to Army’s campus.  Notre Dame is coming off an absolutely huge win last week as they stomped Utah. I really wasn’t surprised by that game as ND was at home off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and Utah’s season and any hopes of playing in a BCS game had already been crushed the previous week by TCU. While I do give ND credit for stepping up and playing a great game, they still benefitted from the spot in the schedule.  Now ND has to forget the biggest win the year and lay more than a touchdown in a big rivarly game. Army runs a great triple option that is going to give the ND defense fits all day long.  ND is weak agains the option as shown by their crushing defeat verse Navy at home earlier this year. I don’t expect things to be a whole different.  I have Army winning outright 24-20. 

NC STATE (+2.5) at North Carolina for 1 unit.

Florida State at MARYLAND (+4) for 1 unit.

Good Luck…