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After careful scrutinizing the card for this Saturday I are only a couple  plays that I am throwin my own money at, as I just see a lot of games that could easily go either way, I will indicate those plays with unit values.  Some of the games I do like require some pretty big dogs to make some pretty big steps forward to be competitive enough to hang around and get the cover.

The Plays for Saturday Nov 13th:

Texas A&M at Baylor (+3) for 1 unit.  My Prediction Baylor 30-28.  A&M coming in off a huge win now go on the road as a favorite. Baylor coming off a bad loss heads back home and takes on a very weak pass defense that they should be able to clear advantage of throughout the game. Baylor wins outright.

Penn State vs Ohio State (-18) for 1 unit. My prediction Ohio State 35-14. PSU looked terrible last week, but played inspired ball in the second half to make sure Joe Pa got his 400th win, but if you watched much of that game it was clear Northwestern was better and should have won. OSU is unbeatable at home and still has an outside chance at the BCS Championship game so look for them to come in really focused and win going away.

BYU at Colorado State (+6.5) for 1 unit. My Prediction CSU 24-20. The key to this game for me is that BYU is 0-3 SU on the road this year and there is no way I can lay points with any team who has played that bad on the road. Senior day at CSU as well. CSU is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Take the points.…

Huge weekend this past week, 3.9 units of profit and easily cashed my second GOY with Maryland winning 62-14.  Several games this week starting with a home dog outright winner tonight.

Tuesday November 2: Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State (+2.5) for 1 unit. My numbers have ASt winning this one outright 28-24, so I will gladly take the points here at home.

OUTRIGHT WINNER ARKST 51 MDST 24

Saturday Plays:

Air Force at Army (+7) for 2 units: My prediction for the game Army 27 AF 22.  Strong situational play in favor of Army here. First, it has been well documented over the years that west coast teams really struggle playing 12est games.  This game is slated for 12est, 10am Mtn time.  AF is coming off a disappointing rivalry loss as last week they failed to win or cover against Utah. This week they are called to step up again for another huge rivarly game and Army is a very strong team that will be ready for this big challenge.  I give the defensive edge here to Army and that just adds to value here with Army. Both teams offensives will be about equal as they both have strong rushing attacks, but both defensives should be prepared.

Northwestern (+6.5) vs Penn State for 1 unit: My prediction PSU 23-21.  Northwestern brings a very balanced offensive attack that will challenge this PSU defense.  I still think PSU has a lot of questions and weaknesses on offensive side of the ball.  They had success last week, but that Michigan defense is one of the worst in the country.  Look for this game to be close throughout and may be decided on who controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over. 

Colorado …

Solid week last weekend with winners on Alabama and Louisville. Indiana was my only loser as they were plagued with turnovers. I am releasing Game of the Year #2 this weekend.

GAME OF THE YEAR #2:

Wake Forest at Maryland (-5) for 2 units. This Maryland team is the most improved squad in all of college football.  I am not going to say that they are ready to win the ACC, but they are a fundamentally sound football team that week in and week out play consistent football.  Consistency leads to great betting opportunities and this is what we have here.  After calculating the line/score for this game I have Maryland winning 38-19, so win I saw this 5-point spread I jumped all over it.  WF has really struggled on the road this year going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe they are going to be much more competitive here this weekend.  Maryland is very athletic both on offense and defense and rarely turn the ball over. Look for Maryland to win this one going away.

GOY WINNER! MARYLAND WINS 62-14!

Louisville (+9.5) at Pittsburgh for 1 unit: Lost 20-3

Clemson at Boston College (+7) for 1 unit: Again, got to lean with the better defense. Clemson has had a propensity for turning the ball over several times this year and there is no way you can trust that offense on the road laying a touchdown. But in Clemson’s defense, if BC doesn’t rise to the occasion it could be a long day.  OUTRIGHT WINNER 16-10.

Baylor (+7.5) at Texas for 1 unit: OUTRIGHT WINNER 30-22.

San Jose State at New Mexico State (+3.5) for 1 unit: I have to …

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
I just didn’t feel any games warranted a 1 unit play last week.  There were a few games I liked, but nothing worth potentially losing money over.  Back at it this week with 4 picks.

UCLA/OREGON UNDER 61 for 1 unit. Both teams off a bye week having plenty of time to analyze film and review play schemes to ready their defenses for this contest.  Oregon’s D has been unreal at home only giving up an average of 10pts per contest.  UCLA, while not as talented, has been average for most college squads giving up 26pts per contest.  UCLA’s offense has been overall pretty inefficient and I don’t expect that offense to improve here tonight on the road verse a well rested and prepared Oregon D.  In my opinion the only way you can bet this game over is if you think Oregon can score over 61 by themselves because Oregon does have the talent to post a shutout at home.  UCLA’s D will be well tested, but should be pretty prepared for this contest.  Final score Oregon 44 UCLA 10.

Alabama (-16.5) at Tennessee for 2 units. They win by 40. Enough said.

UCONN at LOUISVILLE (-1.5) for 1 unit. I got this game at +2. It opened at +1.5 and then moved to +2 so I waited to post this, but when I saw it start to fall I jumped on it, but by the time of posting it was at -1.5.  I think they win outright easily.  More write up to follow if I have time.

Indiana (+13.5) at Illinois for 1 unit. Illinois may overlook this IU squad, but you better not sleep on this IU offense that will put up some points …

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in …

Coming off a strong college Saturday, hitting 2 of 3 top plays, including my play of the year on UTEP, I handicapped the NFL card and found a couple strong plays that I feel will help improve that bankroll.

Seattle vs St. Louis (+2) for 1 unit.  WINNER

Both teams come into Sunday looking to capitalize on last week’s impressive wins, Seattle over San Diego and St. Louis over the Redskins.  I see value here with St. Louis as they continue to play better each week.  Bradford has been way better than I ever imagined and should take advantage of a weak and injured pass defense in Seattle.  They are giving up over 300yds passing per and they come into Week 4 with injuries to their starting CB and LB.  Seattle’s D was dominated by San Diego last week, but was bailed out by great special teams play.  Both teams should put some points on the board, but I will give the edge to the hot QB and slightly better defense with St. Louis.

Arizona vs San Diego (-9) for 1 unit. WINNER

SD continues to get off to a slow start for like the 3rd or 4th straight year, but just when people begin to count them out they come away with an impressive performance to remind everyone that the West is theirs! Arizona comes into SD after a terrible performance vs the lowly Raiders last, but they somehow managed to pull out the win.  SD also comes in off a terrible special teams effort giving up 2 kick returns.  SD will look to go to the air more often this week and establish the pass to open up their solid run attack. Arizona  just has not been able …

Last week was tough as I started the day 3-0 and then finished 0-3 with my top play dropping the ball, literally 4x in the 4th quarter. Now down 3.8 units on the year, but it is still early in the year. This weekend I am coming with Top 2 Plays of the Year.

PLAY OF THE YEAR #1: UTEP (-14.5) vs. New Mexico for 2 UNITS: WINNER

Last week everyone I knew was all over UTEP vs Memphis and they simply did not bring it barely winning. However, New Mexico  is a totally different team then Memphis and I expect a 4 touchdown blowout on Saturday by UTEP. Looking at the numbers, UTEP has a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. UTEP rushes for 175yds per contest, while NM gives up over 220yds per contest. Once UTEP has established the run, which they clearly will, the passing game will open wide up.  UTEP is passing for almost 250yds per contest while NM has not been able to even slow down any passing game they have faced giving up just under 300yds per.  Defensively, while not great, UTEP has been solid against the run and pass, but more importantly NM has not been able to produce any form of offense only scoring an avg of 10pts per contest. UTEP comes ready to play this weekend and wins going away 42-17.

ARIZONA ST (+3.5) vs Oregon State for 2 units. WINNER

AzSt has been very impressive so far this year losing narrowly to both Wisconsin and Oregon. Even though they were predicted to finish 9th in the PAC10 they are clearly better than that this year. OSt has faced a brutal schedule so far this year already playing tough affairs verse …