Author Archive

After last weekend we are  moving in the right direction with 1.4 units of profit, bringing my overall loss to 2.6 units for the year. As a recent poster said, this a marathon and I have been known to finish strong so I have no problems with the slow start.

Week 4: I am releasing my plays very early as I want you to get the best line as possible. I will give detailed analysis of each game, but these are the games I am on. One thing before the pick, I have not had time to do a detailed analysis of suspensions or injuries, but I am not aware of any major issues in any of these games.

The Plays:

South Carolina (+3) vs Auburn for 2 units. This game lines up with several other games I am playing this week. One thing I like to look for, especially with underdogs, is comparing what the two teams do well and where are the weaknesses.  Both defenses are stout so this should be a low scoring affair.  Auburn rushes the ball very well going for over 250 yds. per contest.  However, SC’s run defense has been a wall, giving up only an average of 60 yds on the ground.  Look for a real defensive battle on that line when Auburn attempts to establish that rushing attack, got to give the advantage to SC with that incredible defense.  Auburn’s D, while impressive, is giving up an average of 21 points per (26, 14, 24) while SC’s D has given up an average of 12 (13, 6, 19).  SC’s offense has done a great job of controlling the clock and limiting TOs and if they can do that at Auburn they will …

After we started the day last Saturday 2-2 we had a great chance to end the day with a profit, but UAB failed miserably in the 2nd half, leaving me down 4 units for the season. There is still a lot a research to be done for the week ahead, but a couple games I am getting on early and I think you should too.

Boise St (-24) at Wyoming: My forte does not come in the form of playing road favorites, as documented through my time here at thepassrush, but this is a must play for me. Boise St pulled out the dramatic outright win over VT in week 1 and as I have stated several times this is BSU’s best chance at winning the National Title and there was no better way to start the season than with a solid win over a nationally ranked and recognized program. However, VT forgot that their season wasn’t over and needed to show up in week 2 and suffered the worst defeat in school history. The important question is where does that leave BSU? Without VT’s loss, BSU still needed and needs to dominate the rest of their schedule and if you think that BSU’s Coach doesn’t know the line for this game at Wyoming you are nuts. For BSU to have any chance at the National Title it is now more important than ever for them to absolutely blow teams out. Even one weak game against a weak opponent means they will not be playing in the Title game. Therefore, I fully expect BSU to win by 40+ in the game against Wyoming.

The Play: BSU (-24) for 1 unit.

Ball State (+17) vs Purdue: First off I just …

Current Record:

1. South Carolina Winner for 1 unit

2. Western Michigan Push

3. Washington Loss for 1.1 units

4. Missouri Loss for 1.1 units

5. Teaser (2to1 odds) Maryland, Boise State, and Over Winner for 2 units

Overall Profit 0.8 units

Week 2:

1. South Florida +15 at Florida: Overreaction beware! There are several games this week where there seems to be an overreaction.  For example Oklahoma vs. FSU, Memphis vs. ECU, and USF v UF.  Teams that played poorly or extremely well in week 1 are now either favored by more or less than you would have expected going into week 1. In the game at hand, Florida played very poorly in the opener. However, that was expected by most.  There are going to be some growing pains for this Gator team and their poor play on Saturday didn’t surprise me at all. I do expect to see much better play for all critical positions this week verse USF.  However, USF is a team that I fully expect to have one of their best years.  I think USF has a great chance to win this game outright. They return most of their squad from a year ago. They do have a new coach this year, Skip Holtz, and he gets the most out of his squads and I expect much of the same in South Florida this year.  Look for USF to keep this game close throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.

The Play: South Florida +15 for 1 unit

Kent St (+17.5) at Boston College: A well balanced offensive attacking Kent State team travels to BC for a game that BC may be overlooking as they face VT a week from …

We may not get an easier win all year then we did with South Carolina. There were some nerves that had to be worked out on the first couple drives of the game, but once the flow of the game started there was no doubt who was in control.  1-0 with 1 unit of profit is a good way to start, but we have a long way to go in the season so lets stay focused on get a couple more winners on Saturday.

Western Michigan (+24) vs Michigan State: I am taking a shot here with WMU, for one main reason, a team must prove something to me before they go laying 24 points to anyone.  WMU returns 7 seven starters on the offensive side of the ball, but not their QB or RB. However, Alex Carder is a solid replacement for the great Hiller and will rely on one of the best offensive lines in the country and a solid core of receivers.  On the defensive side of things, WMU returns 6 guys, but more importantly several key guys in the secondary. MSU returns 7 starters on offense, including their QB Cousins.  MSU will be solid on the offensive side of the ball, but remember this team was not all that great last year so they do need to take some big strides this year.  Therefore, look for this game to be pretty high scoring, but I think WMU will have several opportunities to score and keep this well within range.

The play WMU +24 for 1 unit

Illinois vs Missouri -12: Let me say this up front, I am going against the conventional pick and line movement in this one.  Missouri opened as a 13.5-point chalk, but …

The wait is finally over and its time to get started with College Football games set to start this week.  Like last year I will release plays as a 1 unit play or 2 unit play.  Primarily for the first few weeks, most of my plays will be 1 unit bets as no matter how great or terrible a team looks on paper, getting out on the field and actually playing the game can sometimes mean a whole different story.  There are several teams that I have already labeled as teams that will get my money right off the bat, but some of them I will have to take a wait and see approach.  I will be updating this post several times over the course of the week so make sure to check back often.

Game 1: Southern Miss vs South Carolina (-14): In my opinion, this is South Carolina’s best squad in a few years.  SC returns 9 starters, including  their QB, on the offensive side of the ball.  Most of their OL returns as well, which should help provide some good running lanes and security for their QB.  On the other side of the ball, they return 7 starters from their average defense last year.  While S.Miss does return 9 starters on defense, a defense that was average at best, they only return 3 starters on offense, including their QB, from their squad a year ago.  Their OL ranks almost dead last in offensive starts.  This inexperience will not help against a strong SEC team.  S.Miss draws a very tough spot to open up the year, on the road in the SEC.  S.Miss will struggle on to score points on offense and the quickness of the SC’s defense …

If you are looking to place a wager on tonight’s game you should probably consider the following.

NY Giants: According to the Giants Head Coach their offense has been severely limited due to several key injuries. The Giants normally play a two tight-end set, but will likely be limited to a one tight-end set tonight due to several injuries to their tight-ends. The coach also stated that the starting offense would be limited to about 15-18 plays before the second string would hit the field. The Giants have been running their mouth a lot and giving the Jets a lot of “bulletin board” material to get them fired up over the past week. Giants defense appears to be pretty healthy and ready to go.

Jets: The Jets appear to be relatively healthy and should come in pretty prepared for this game. The starting offense is expected to play into the 2nd quarter. Giants said that the Jets playing starters longer would not effect their strategy for the game. One important note is that the Jets are appearing this year on the HBO Hard Knocks show. Several of the teams that have been filmed for this this show have really struggled with their overall play in the season that followed them appearing on the show as it appears to distract the players from the overall routine of getting ready for the season as the cameras are constantly on them.

Based on the above, I would lean towards the Jets -3 and the under 33.5. Again, these are leans. Nothing really jumps out as me as making this game a must bet besides being bored on a Monday Night.

Good Luck.…

If you do a little research and make some educated guesses based on current comments by coaches and players as to their intentions for any of their preseason games, you may have a chance to build that bankroll even before the season officially starts.

Saturday Leans:

1. Detroit (+2.5) vs Pittsburgh: Even w/o Big Ben Pitt is still the better team.  However, Detroit has won more games in the past two preseasons than they have in either season combined.  Therefore, I still look for the Detroit coaches to push for a win here, just to help the overall morale of this team.  So look for Detroit to come out and play harder as this game may mean more to Detroit than Pittsburgh. Lean towards Det.

2. Minnesota (+2.5) vs St. Louis: Without Favre confirmed to be the starter look for the QBs from Minnesota to take the field focused on earning a starting QB role.  Therefore, you may see some more passing from the Vikings, plus their running game will be solid even when they get pretty deep on their bench.  St. Louis still has a long way to go to be considered a professional football team.  Lean towards Minny.

These are not blockbuster picks, this is the presason so anything could happen.  Just some insight I have gained through some interviews with coaches and players that I have heard this year.…