Overall Profit 0.3 units
Easy winner with La Tech last night and hopefully we can keep that rolling tonight.
SMU at UAB (+9.5): sorry for the short write-up, very busy day. UAB looks to revenge a big loss from last year. They get SMU at home and should keep this close throughout.
The Play UAB (+9.5) for 1 unit.
Good Luck.…
Profit/Loss Total -0.7 unit.
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech (-4.5) Great spot for LT here at home. Their schedule started off pretty tough having to start play on the road at Auburn and Navy. Last week they got their first win against a cupcake opponent and they should be building that confidence off that win. Hawaii is in a tough spot playing their third consecutive road game and easily facing their toughest opponent yet. Plus they are coming off a tough road loss at UNLV last out. Hawaii is not the team they were a couple of years ago and will struggle to win more than 5 games as their schedule gets more difficult the rest of the way. Jump on this game early as I see it going off more around 6 or 7.
The Play LOUISIANA TECH 1 unit…
Current Profit/Loss: +0.3 units. The season is still early and we are still are on the plus side.
OLE MISS VS SOUTH CAROLINA OVER 53
I really think there has been a change in the SEC this year. It seems as though the offensives are much better than the defenses this year. QB’s are really taking aim at weaker secondaries and the scores have been evident of that fact. Just look at some of the scores with SEC teams involved from Week 3:
1) Georgia 52 Arkansas 41
2) Auburn 41 WVU 30
3) UK 31 Loui 27
4) Ole Miss 52 SE Loui 6
Week 2:
1) Auburn 49 Miss St 24
2) Georgia 41 SC 37
This is just few examples. Remember this is a conference that has been historically filled with power/defensive-minded teams. Therefore, the books really haven’t adjusted these totals yet and I think that will come in the next few weeks, a major adjustment in the totals. However, tonight’s number is way too low. I think it should be set closer to 57. So take the over as these teams should put 60+ points tonight.
THE PLAY: OLE MISS/SC OVER 53 for 1 unit
Good Luck.…
Overall Profit/Loss: +0.6 units (back on the plus side with a nice win with Boise State last night).
I know I usually write a decent analysis of the games, but in an effort just to get these up I am posting them without analysis. If you have specific questions about a game please let me know and I will respond.
Michigan State at Notre Dame (-10): The Play ND (-10) 1 unit. Look for ND to rebound after their loss and they play much better at home.
La Lafayette at LSU (-27.5): The Play LSU (-27.5) 2 unit. Too much talent on the LSU in this contest.
UCONN at Baylor (-10): The Play Baylor (-10) 1 unit. Real tough spot for UCONN off last weeks tough loss.
Florida State (+8) at BYU: The Play FSU (+8) 1 unit. If Miami is as good as they looked against GT, maybe FSU is better than most think.
Cincinnati at Oregon State (+1.5) The Play OSU (+1.5) 1 unit. OSU surprises the Bearcats in this spot.
BASEBALL PLAY: KC at White Sox UNDER 9.5 1 unit.…
Current Profit/Loss -1.4 units
Nice win last night and looking to start rolling as we get into the third weekend of college football. I know you can’t make a living playing against home dogs, but tonight I just think Fresno State is simply out-classed. Tough spot for Fresno State here coming off that difficult road loss to Wisconsin in double overtime. Now they return home to face a Boise State team that is much better than Wisconsin or Fresno State in just about every statistical category. Currently Boise State seems to be in what I will term the “Killer Position.” Boise State literally destroyed an Oregon team that will feel the effects of that loss for the rest of the season. They completely crushed Miami-Ohio and covered the 38.5 point spread. Tonight they take on Fresno State in a very vulnerable position (still feeling the blow from last week). Plus add to that, that Boise State loves playing in these nationally televised games and will be pumped up to show off their talent again. Fresno State has not faced a defense as tough as Boise State. Fresno State’s QB looked great in the first half verse the Badgers, throwing 3 TDs, but threw 3 Ints in the second half. I just see Boise State really coming out prepared, focused, and determined to show they belong in another BCS game. Remember this, Boise State will likely not play in a bowl game if the suffer even one loss, so each game is that much more important to them.
The Play: Boise State (-7.5) for 2 units…
Current Profit/Loss -2.4 Units:
Georgia Tech vs Miami UNDER 54.5:
This number appears pretty high for two teams that run the ball more often then they go through the air. GT has switched to the option offense and their QB has looked very poor so far this year throwing the ball. Miami’s D will likely put 8 to 9 in the box to help shut down the run and force GT’s QB to beat them through the air. Miami is also at their best on the ground, if last week verse Florida State was indicator of things left to come this year. I also think with this being an important tough conference game the defenses will both be on lock down tonight. Look for this score to be much lower than either of these teams previous contests. I see the score being more like 30-14, Miami. Even though I like Miami, I am not playing them because of that very tough, physical battle they had with Florida State last out, there still may be some lingering effect.
The Play UNDER 54.5 1 unit
Good Luck.…
UPDATE: For any of you still reading this blog from last year, thanks for continuing to read and I look forward to providing you with some solid analysis and insight for several weeks ahead. I have recently moved to Las Vegas and feel my handicapping has become much more focused and accurate. I have also changed my rating system to a 1 unit or 2 unit scale. This system keeps me much more honest. Basically what I am saying is that it keeps me from giving you a 1 unit play that is more of a lean than a solid play. With this rating system I am forced to only play games that I am very confident about. I will keep a running total throughout the rest of the college year, including juice as well. Good Luck to all and I welcome all comments and feedback.
Stanford at Wake Forest (-3): There are several reasons to play WF on Saturday. First, west coast to east coast traveling teams, including Stanford on Saturday, have really struggled when being asked to play the 12ET game. Remember last year, Maryland upset Cal when Cal was asked to play the 12ET, and that is simply one example. Secondly, as a bettor you need to take a close look at teams that played really well during week 1 and teams that played poorly week 1. Stanford on paper looked like they played really well. Now Stanford is a solid team and getting better with solid coaching, but playing at Washington State is not asking a whole lot. Standford was clearly the better team and they played like it. They will not be able to run and pass the ball with the ease they had …
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