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BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-1)

Thursday Night Football starts tonight and we are treated to a great game between the Ravens and Falcons. Both teams are 6-2, both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road, and both have been mediocre against the spread covering 4 of their 8 games this season. The Falcons have the offensive edge, while the Ravens have the defensive edge.

This is a tough game to call. The Falcons average 30 PPG at home while the Ravens average just 14 PPG on the road. However, the Falcons defense has been slipping up the last few weeks due to injuries. The Falcons are averaging 28 PPG allowed in their last 3 while their season average is just 19 PPG. Baltimore is finally showing some offensive production, averaging 27 PPG in their last 3, which matches the Falcons average.

The public is favoring the Ravens, who are getting 63% of the action against the spread. I just can’t make up my mind about this pick. I am torn 50/50. I love Atlanta’s offense and the fact that they’re at home, but I also think that the Ravens are a better all-around team. The Ravens haven’t really shown me much on the road though, so I’m not ready to jump on them this game.

With the over/under at 43.5, I would favor the over. The Falcons score a lot, especially at home. The Ravens will likely also score their fair share of points against the Falcons struggling defense.  The over 36.5 looks like an extremely safe play if you want to add the points to the Falcons (+6) or Ravens (+8).

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Ravens 24

Picks Against the Spread: Falcons -1 (Confidence: 2/5), …

Question: Week 12: Start Steven Jackson or Maurice Jones Drew?

Maurice Jones-Drew has some kind of injury, but will probably play this Sunday against the Giants. Does anyone know how serious this injury is and how it will affect his performance? I have Steven Jackson on my bench and Jackson is starting against Denver. I’m tempted to sit MJD and start Jackson instead.  Just wanted to get your thoughts.

Answer:

Maurice Jones-Drew will start on Sunday, but he won’t be 100%. Since that’s the case, you can’t go wrong with Steven Jackson against Denver. Who is your other running back. I’m surprised that you have MJD and have Steven Jackson on your bench to begin with.

Give your answer to this question below!…

We enjoyed an easy victory with the Packers last night to add on top of other Sunday winners (Saints and Texans/Over teaser). Tonight we have an AFC North battle, which is much tougher to gauge than last night’s Sunday Night game between Green Bay and Dallas.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

I’m not all over the Steelers like I was with the Packers yesterday. Packers was an easy pick since they were at home and the Cowboys have been terrible. Pittsburgh has to battle this one out with a division rival and that’s going to be tough. The Bengals have been terrible against the spread (2-5) while the Steelers have been decent (4-3). However, some trends are keeping me from going big on the Steelers here: Pittsburgh 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 division games and 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. They just underperform as heavy favorites. They win consistently, but in close games.

Count on Pittsburg’s run D to dominate as they’ve been holding their opponents to under 60 yards per game and limiting teams to a 2.6 yards per carry average. Will Cincy’s passing attack be able to move the chains on Pittsburgh? Pitt’s passing D gives up 243 passing yards, while the Bengals passing offense is averaging 254 passing yards. They’ll get some offensive production, but they should be limited.

With a look at the over/under, the line is set at 41. With these offenses averaging 20 PPG and the Steelers D holding their opponents to 14 PPG that favors the under here. The Steelers/Saints game was 20-10 and the Steelers/Dolphins game was 23-22. A more comparable game would be the Ravens/Steelers which ended 17-14.

I think you see a close, low-scoring …

Strong day here as I hit 2 out of 3 on my card.  I played the Saints -6.5, Patriots -4, and Texans +10/Over 42.5. The Saints were my top play and since everyone loved the Pats, I took that one too. Like I mentioned in the write up, you know the traps (home dog off the bye week) and I got trapped into that one. I’m still coming out on top and looking for a final hit in the night game.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)

The 1-6 Cowboys (I love saying that) are playing the Packers (5-3) in Green Bay tonight. The Cowboys got waxed by the Jaguars last week at home 35-17. They have a lot of issues in their secondary as Garrard passed for 260 yards and 4 TDs with a rushing touchdown to boot. Sims-Walker had 10 receptions for 153 yards. Kitna was forced to drop back 49 times and despite putting up over 350 yards, he threw 4 INTs (two due to balls that bounced off the wide receiver’s hands). It’s safe to say the Cowboys morale is at an all time low.

The Packers are coming back home with a lot of momentum after topping the Jets 9-0 thanks to a stout defensive effort. Despite all the injuries to their defense, they were able to get it done. I clearly like the Packers here. At home on Sunday Night against a team that is struggling on defense giving up 26.7 PPG. What’s not to love? Clay Matthews should harass Jon Kitna all game long and force him into bad decisions. Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a losing record and 5-2-1 in their last 8 home …

Question by The Guy With A Plan: Who to start/sit in Week 9 Fantasy Football?

ESPN Standard League, 14 teams, 1 QB – 2 RB – 1 RB/WR – 2 WR – 1 TE – 1 D/ST – 1 K

Position – Name, Team (Projection)

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB (23)

RB – Ryan Grant, GB (18)
RB – Pierre Thomas, NO (14)
RB – Jamaal Charles, KC (8)

WR – Greg Jennings, GB (21)
WR – Randy Moss, NO (17)
WR – Andre Johnson, Hou (15)
WR – Michael Crabtree, SF (13)
WR – Marques Colston, NO (12)
WR – Mario Manningham, NYG (3) [Questionable]
WR – Bernard Berrian, Min [BYE]

TE – Kellen Winslow, TB (9)
TE – Visanthe Shiancoe [BYE]

D/ST – Bears, Chi (5)
D/ST – Bengals, Cin (3)

K – Matt Stover, Ind
K – Ryan Longwell, Min [BYE]

Please keep in mind that I am in a 14 team league so what might seem like a weak team (specifically at RB) really isn’t that shallow. Also I need a kicker for this week cause Longwell is on a bye week so I don’t know if I should drop someone else or just go this week without a kicker. I put stover up there because he’s who ill probably get. My current record is 3 wins and 5 losses (3-5).

Please rate my team (for a 14 team league), give me some advice, or tell me who I should start/sit for Week 8? Thanks!

Best answer:

Obviously go with Rodgers at QB. I wouldn’t play Jamaal Charles, since he hasn’t shown me anything yet this season.
Start Pierre Thomas, try to pick up a RB, personally i dont ike starting a QB RB tandem. but …

Something tells me the Saints will turn up the heat in the second half of the season.

Sorry for the late picks but a terrible cold left me sidelined all week. Better late than never. I’m going to have to make this post quick (ha, that never happens), but I’ll try to get through all the games this week. Plenty of good games to take a deeper look into this week. Please help me out by voting in the poll at the end. Thanks!

NEW YORK JETS (-4) @ DETROIT LIONS

Wow! The Jets as mere 4-point favorites in this one? What are the books thinking? The books are thinking that the Lions play good ball at home. Stafford is back and threw 4 TDs against the Washington Redskins last week. The Lions D is also better than their 23.6 PPG allowed. Did you know the Lions have the 6th ranked offense in terms of points scored? The Jets put up a fat 0 last week against the Packers despite showing no signs of offensive struggles in the prior 5 weeks scoring 24+ in each game. You can expect an offensive rebound for the Jets against the Lions. I see the Lions offense finally struggling against the NFL’s best brass. Revis will need to have a big game against Calvin Johnson for the Jets to get the W against the spread. This one will be close with the spread. Think 24-20. I’m going to give the nod to the Jets here.

Prediction: Jets 26 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

TAMPA BAY BUNCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-9)

The Falcons play great ball at home. I love playing the Falcons at home as my last bet …

Gentlmen, I apologize for what transpired by our latest contributor Joey G. Here at THE PASS RUSH, we’re honourable enough to not delete picks. If we are cold, we admit we had a bad week and take it like a man.

Joey G started off hot, but has been on a cold streak and his shaken confidence may have gotten the best of him. He is now ejected and Brandon and I will keep serving up winners.

To recap what Vegas and Brandon have done:

Brandon: 2/2 for his Game of the Year releases. Both have been big winners. This is to follow up a 4-1 record for his 2009’s Games of the Year. That’s an insane record.

I have not had a losing week in the NFL since week 4. Now, I’m not on a hot streak either, but I’ll take above .500 every week since week 4 any year. My record for the past 4 weeks have been 7-6, 8-6, 7-7, 8-6. That’s a 30-25 record in the NFL against the spread, which is 55%. That’s dead even with the juice, but at least we’re not picking tons of losers here and our high confidence games are having success. We’re still beating Eric Allen, who can’t even put together a winning season straight up. Fact.

There’s something we have here at THE PASS RUSH and that’s INTEGRITY. November will be a killer month for Brandon and I. Thanksgiving is always our best week. Learn about it: 10-0 Thanksgiving Weekend!

I unfortunately came down with a nasty cold, which has left me sidelined this week. NFL picks are probable. I’ll return to practice possibly tomorrow and probably by Saturday. Stay tuned for this weeks picks. …