My picks came out 10-5 straight up and 6-6-3 ATS this week. If you’re wondering where the 16th game is from that record, I abstained from the Eagles game since I would have been stoned to death if I were to say that the Packers would win and/or cover due to my allegiance to my team. I’ll take a .500 week ATS in week 1 of the NFL and look to improve next week.
It seems like nobody saw the 49ers or Chargers losing this week. Here is a screen shot of Yahoo’s picks straight up, not even against the spread. As far as consensus picks against the spread are concerned, the one place you want to check other than THE PASS RUSH of course is CBS’s Expert Picks who call the games against the spread, unlike Yahoo and ESPN who just make their picks straight up. 2/5 of CBS’s team called Seattle and Kansas City to cover so props to those guys.
Yahoo, on the other hand, did not see the 49ers and Chargers losses coming.
If I told you the Browns were one of the best teams in the NFL to bet on ATS in 2009, would you believe me? No, but they were. Despite the Browns 5-11 record, they were 10-6 against the spread, which puts then in the top five behind Green Bay (11-4-1), San Fransisco (9-4-3), and Atlanta (11-5). Here is some very interesting information that you will want to consider when making your picks for the remainder of the year.
Top 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread
Green Bay Packers — 11-4-1 (.733)
San Fransisco 49ers – 9-4-3 (.690)
Atlanta Falcons — 11-5 (.687)
Cleveland Browns — 10-6 (.625)
Indianapolis Colts – 10-6 (.625)
Worst 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread
Detroit Lions — 4-10-2 (.285)
Jacksonville Jaguars — 5-11 (.312)
Pittsburgh Steelers — 5-10-1 (.333)
Seattle Seahawks — 6-10 (.375)
New York Giants — 6-9-1 (.400)
History lessons are always nice. As you can see, even if you’re taking the top teams to bet on, your winning percentage like falls in the .600’s. NFL Week 3 picks will be posted tonight or tomorrow. I may also be bringing on more contributors to THE PASS RUSH.
Until further notice, Alabama looks like the play this week.
We had a big Saturday last week with 2 big wins, but we lost a little juice in the NFL. Won on Miami, lost on San Fran. Won on Ravens, lost on Chargers. We ripped off two college wins in week 2 action and that’s what is making me think that college football is where I need to be looking at. The Sooners and Crimson Tide came up big as I suggested and I looked at only the top 4 college football games. Let’s see what big games are on tap in week 3.
We start off on Thursday with Cincinnati @ N.C. State (-2). Both teams have shown that they’re able to score, but both have very poor defenses, so I’m looking for a close higher-scoring showdown. Based on that, I’ll be curious to see the over/under is because I’ll think anything under 47 points is worth taking a deeper look into.
If you’re looking to ride Ohio State, you’ll be giving up 31-32 points to take them at home against Ohio. Considering that they’ll win by something like 42-3, it looks like a win, but too many points for my taste. I don’t take many high spreads like this one. If Ohio manage just 13 points, they should cover.
Maryland (+11) @ West Virginia is interesting. Maryland has impressed me with a big win over Navy while West Virginia just lost to Marshall. This could be a rebound game for WVU, but I think Maryland with +11 is enticing. I’ll wait to see what Brandon likes because his specialty is finding good underdogs to take. After looking at the injury report though, you will want to hold off …
A new commercial is out for ESPN’s Sunday NFL Countdown. It’s hysterical. I agree with Keyshawn, eggs are very versatile — flexibility is key!!
We booked a MNF win thanks to the Ravens (+2) who won 10-9. We all knew it would be a tight game, which is why my bet on this game was negligible, but we got some back after that dissappointing “nobody saw it coming” 49ers loss. However, we rattled off three big wins earlier with the Dolphins at 1:00 and the Crimson Tide and Sooners on Saturday. I have another small bet on Chargers (-5.5). They drew blood first gaining a 7-0 lead before Jamaal Charles ripped a 54-yard TD to tie it up. We’ll see what happens. It’s now pissing rain, so this one could get ugly. Rivers just threw a pick and the Chargers also fumbled.
For now, enjoy a funny commercial for NFL Countdown. I’m anticipating a higher quality video being available tomorrow morning.
Miami secured the 15-10 win. I had Miami at -3 and was pretty pissed when the Bills scored a TD on 4th and 11 to make the score 13-10. The Dolphins pinned the Bills down on their 1 and got a safety in the final minutes of the game for the cover for anyone who had the game at -3 or -4. I was expecting more from Miami’s offense, but a win is a win, and I’ll gladly take it.
I’m now hoping the 49ers at -3 can deliver another big win at 4:15 game. I cleaned up on two college games yesterday with my picks of Alabama and Oklahoma. We won the 1:00 game. We’re hoping for a 4:15 win to come out of the weekend 4-0.
Come on 49ers. Go Eagles. Good luck everyone!
5:15 Update: This 49ers game is irritating the hell out of me. Although they’re up 6-0, they could easily be up 21-0. They had a TD overturned and had to settle for their first field goal, they went for it on 4th and 1 on the 6 and couldn’t pick up the first down. They had a 3rd and 1 on the 1-yard line and couldn’t get the ball in and settled for a field goal. With Gore and their line, I don’t know why they’re not winning the battle in the trenches. Let’s go San Fran.
5:35 Update: To make matters worse, Seattle put up a quick score to make the game 7-6 and then intercepted the ball on the 49ers next drive in their own territory which led to another TD. It’s now 14-6. A lot of bad breaks in this game. Completely unacceptable.
I’m playing two games today and that is Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State. I’m sorry I couldn’t do a preview for the top 4 games that were on tap this week, which I said my piece about early in the week (it was a crazy week work-wise). Based on that little write up, I hope some of you were able to capitalize off the Sooners big win.
The only college game that I previewed was Michigan (+4) vs. Notre Dame since that’s what people indicated they were most interested in. I personally didn’t take this game since I didn’t want to bet against the Irish at home, but I picked Michigan +4 and that pick is looking pretty good with Michigan up 21-17 with 5 minutes left.
The Sooners absolutely demolished Florida State as I predicted would happen. People got down on them too much after they didn’t whip Utah State. I knew Bob Stoops would have them ready this game. Here’s what I had to write:
Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be better prepared by coach this week at home.
Oklahoma is up 47-10 at the time of me advocating my foresight.
In other Pass Rush news, Brandon’s pick of South Florida …
Who would have thought the difference in this game would be between 4.5 to 5.5 points. With the score deadlocked at 14-9 throughout the game, that point made all the difference. One point! For those who had the game at -5.5, don’t send too much hate mail to the Saints kicker, who missed 2 field goals including a 32-yard chip shot.
Tonight’s lesson: Always shop around for the best line.
Covers.com allows you to do just that. While the Hilton had this game at -5.5, the Mirage had it at -4.5. If you bet online, BetUS had this game at -4.5, while Bodog had this game at -6.
Hopefully you took got that game at -4.5 or -5. Brandon and I got this one at -5 where most books had the line before kickoff. A day too late from getting it at -4.5, which would have brought in a very nice win. The Yahoo Pick ‘Em League had this spread at -5 so nobody came out ahead. It was a plain, old vanilla push! However, you also have to consider yourself lucky if you did take that line because the Vikings missed an extra point which would have given the Vikings the cover with the 4.5 or 5 points.
That’s the NFL for you and that’s why Vegas employs professionals to come up with the lines.
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If I told you the Browns were one of the 
Who would have thought the difference in this game would be between 4.5 to 5.5 points. With the score deadlocked at 14-9 throughout the game, 
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