LSU Tigers

UNC has one nasty defense, but they're riddled with controversy.

I’ve done over a half dozen college football previews. I got a head start about two weeks ago looking at the Week 1 college football lines to see if there’s any games that I really like. I haven’t been able to spot any games which I would give a 4/5 rating (worthy of a nice bet), but I’m cautiously optimistic in Cincy -1.5 over Fresno State and Pitt +3.5 over Utah. I’m cautious with both teams on the road, but you’ll have to read those reports to understand what I’m seeing in those two games. I tend to be rather conservative betting on the first few weeks of football until I get a good feel for the year. You’ll also want to read Brandon’s week 1 picks as he like South Carolina -14 over Southern Miss. What I wanted to do today was preview a big Saturday Night primetime game between LSU and UNC, which takes place in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

No. 21 LSU TIGERS VS. No. 18 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

The line on this one has moved from LSU -1.5 to UNC -1.5 and reports were that 80% of the bets were on LSU -1.5, but for some reason, the line was moved to UNC -1.5. The line was then taken down due the controversy going on in UNC that is going to be a major distraction for this squad.  Most of UNC’s top players are being investigated for receiving improper benefits from NFL agents. Although an official announcement has not yet been made, DT Marvin Austin and UNC’s top wideout WR Greg Little are being targeted and may end up being suspended, but …

FLORIDA GATORS (4-0) -9 @ LSU TIGERS (5-0)

First order of business is checking the status of Tim Tebow.  As your probably already know, Tebow suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for the game meaning that there’s about a 50/50 shot that he plays.  The latest word on Tebow is that he will play IF he is medically cleared by passing a test and this will be a game-time decision.  I would not wager of this game until Tebow’s status is 100% certain.  If he plays, I would lean towards taking the Gators at -9, but if he’s out, taking LSU +9 is likely the play to make.  Let’s look at the tale of the tape.

Both teams are unbeaten this season.  Florida is averaging 45.5 PPG and allowing 7.2 PPG.  LSU is averaging 27.0 PPG and allowing 14.8 PPG.  Florida won the last contest between these two teams last November by a score of 51-20.  Florida’s most impressive wins this season are their week 1 win over Oklahoma 24-14 and their win last week on the road over Kentucky, 41-7.  LSU has only played 1 legitimate team and 4 weaker teams and their sole “impressive” win was a 20-13 win on the road against Georgia.  The week before that, LSU barely beat Mississipp State on the road, escaping with a 30-26 win.

Not only does Florida have Tebow questionable, but their injury list is almost a mile long (see full list here).  With several offensive linemen, linebackers, and wide receivers out for Florida, that raises a lot of questions on whether they can cover the 9 points on the road.

Florida is an impressive 11-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 12 road games, while LSU …

There are some big “must watch” college games this Saturday and that’s what I want to cover. These are really tough to call, but here are my two cents. I actually like the Maryland and Pittsburgh picks more than the high-profile matchups below.

#8 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS @ #1 TEXAS LONGHORNS -12.5

I was a bit surprised the line was this high. I love Texas to win this one. Oklahoma St. is playing at a high level. Both teams are 7-0 and averaging more than 45 PPG. Both teams are perfect against the spread this year. Texas has the edge at QB with Colt McCoy who is the frontrunner to win the Hiesman and Texas has the better defense. With the home field, I see them winning this one, but will they run away with the game just like the Missouri game? That’s difficult to say. I don’t like the high spread for a game that should be an offensive showdown. This one is too close to call with the spread. I love Texas to win outright, but I don’t like giving up 12.5 in what should be a close game. I’m not indicating to take the points by the prediction as I can also see a Texas beat down just like the Missouri game. It’s just your best bet to avoid this spread or tease it to Texas -5.5 with another game.

Prediction — Texas 38 – Oklahoma State 28

#9 GEORGIA BULLDOGS @ #11 LSU TIGERS -1.5

I like the Bulldogs in this one. They have a much better QB in Matthew Staffard than LSU and have more playmakers with WRs JR Green and Mohamed Massaquoi and RB Knowshon Moreno (6.0 YPC, 11 TDs). Both teams are averaging …

I’m going to throw out some quick week 7 college picks against the spread (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS). I like the Vanderbilt and BYU picks the most and I would give some consideration to Kentucky.

Vanderbilt -3 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

I like this game a lot. Vanderbilt is rolling with their 5-0 record and they’re 5-0 ATS to boot. Mississippi State is a dismal 1-4 (2-2 ATS) with their sole win over Southeastern Louisiana. They were manhandeled by Georgia Tech, but in their defense, they hung with LSU losing that one by a score of 34-24. Vandy has impressive wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Vanderbilt is also manufacturing turnovers. Their 26.6 PPG is better than Miss St.’s 16.2 and Vandy is only allowing 16.2 PPG compared to Miss. St.’s 21.4.

KENTUCKY -1 OVER South Carolina

This should be a good one. Kentrucky is 4-1 and S. Carolina is 4-2. Kentucky is scoring more points than the Game Cocks, are allowing less points, and have the advantage being at home. Kentucky is 3-0 at home this year (albiet, against teams they should crush) compared to S. Carolina’s 1-1 road record. S. Carolina dropped one last week to Ole Miss, while Kentucky lost by only 3 on the road to an outstanding Alabama team.

Iowa -5 OVER INDIANA

Indiana doesn’t play much defense and Iowa does. Iowa’s dropped 3 straight, but they’ve faced very good teams (Michigan State, Northwester, Pittsburgh). Indiana lost by 13 to Michigan State at home, 42-29. Iowa lost to MSU on the road 16-13. They held a team with a Heisman hopeful RB to 16 points: that’s very good. I like Iowa’s defense to dominate this game and Indiana’s defense should give up points.

LSU …

What a suiting article for the 100th article here on THE PASS RUSH.  Here are my picks and predictions for the BCS Bowl games.  Here are my picks for the non-BCS Bow games.

ROSE BOWL: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans -13.5

I don’t know why the Illini are getting a lack of respect in this game.  I thought the spread should be USC -9.  I think Illinois is very capable of covering this one.  They were the team to top Ohio State and have impressive wins against Penn State and Wisconsin.  Their first game of the season was against should-be BSC Bowl contender Missouri, and they only lost that one by 4.  These teams match up pretty evenly.  Illinois has an average PF of 28.8, USC’s is 31.2.  Illinois has an average PA of 19.5, USC’s is 15.9.  Illinois’ 7-4 record against the spread is better than USC’s 6-6 record against the spread.  9/13 of the experts at covers.com are taking USC to cover, but I think the Trojans will win, but Illinois will cover.  Also keep in mind that USC has a huge advantage being in Pasadena.

Prediction – USC defeats Illinois – 34-24

USC Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Illinois +13.5 Spread – Confidence 2/5

SUGAR BOWL: Hawaii Warriors vs. Georgia Bulldogs -7.5

When I first saw the Bowl games announced I was getting excited about this one because I expect the Bulldogs to stomp on the Warriors.  I thought the spread should be at least 10 points.  We all know about Hawaii’s offense, but they’ve been playing mickey-mouse defenses; they haven’t seen a defense like Georgia’s.  I don’t think Hawaii will know what hit them when they have to square off on January 1st.  Hawaii’s defense …