West Virginia Mountaineers

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS @ WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Tonight we are treated to the Backyard Brawl at 7:00 on ESPN.  Pittsburgh seeks to get their 10th win of the season and secure a spot in a BCS Standings if they are able to get a win.  A lot of people like the Panthers in this one due to the low spread and I think that is the play to make in this one, but I’m always hesitant to bet on the road team in a big rivalry game.  That’s mostly because I attended this game in 2003 when WVU waxed Pitt 54-31.  2003 was a long time ago though!  Pittsburgh has won this battle the last two years.  Last year they won the game in Pittsburgh 19-15 and the year before that Pitt won 13-9 when it was played in West Virginia.  That is probably why so many people like the under 48.5 in this game.

Both teams bread and butter is their running game.  That is how they win football games.  However, on the other side of the ball, each of these team’s strength is their rushing defense.  Due to that factor, I think you’ll see a lot of stops on third down, which will lead to more punting and less scoring, which makes the under 48.5 looks like the play to make there.  Both of these teams can score though.  Pitt averages 33.8 PPG and WVU averages 27.6 PPG, which is why you’re seeing a high over/under for this game.  The defenses allow a combined 38.2 points though.  Pitts gives up an average of 17.6 PPG, while WVU gives up an average of 21.2.  Each of these teams’ last two games have gone under.  6/9 of Pitt’s games have …

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ’em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score …

What a suiting article for the 100th article here on THE PASS RUSH.  Here are my picks and predictions for the BCS Bowl games.  Here are my picks for the non-BCS Bow games.

ROSE BOWL: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans -13.5

I don’t know why the Illini are getting a lack of respect in this game.  I thought the spread should be USC -9.  I think Illinois is very capable of covering this one.  They were the team to top Ohio State and have impressive wins against Penn State and Wisconsin.  Their first game of the season was against should-be BSC Bowl contender Missouri, and they only lost that one by 4.  These teams match up pretty evenly.  Illinois has an average PF of 28.8, USC’s is 31.2.  Illinois has an average PA of 19.5, USC’s is 15.9.  Illinois’ 7-4 record against the spread is better than USC’s 6-6 record against the spread.  9/13 of the experts at covers.com are taking USC to cover, but I think the Trojans will win, but Illinois will cover.  Also keep in mind that USC has a huge advantage being in Pasadena.

Prediction – USC defeats Illinois – 34-24

USC Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Illinois +13.5 Spread – Confidence 2/5

SUGAR BOWL: Hawaii Warriors vs. Georgia Bulldogs -7.5

When I first saw the Bowl games announced I was getting excited about this one because I expect the Bulldogs to stomp on the Warriors.  I thought the spread should be at least 10 points.  We all know about Hawaii’s offense, but they’ve been playing mickey-mouse defenses; they haven’t seen a defense like Georgia’s.  I don’t think Hawaii will know what hit them when they have to square off on January 1st.  Hawaii’s defense …