NFL General

After taking a look at the week 14 spreads, none really jump out as “must-take spreads” like the Ravens last week. There are 3 spreads at 13.5, which you don’t usually see. Those being the Titans over Browns, Colts over Bengals, and Cardinals over Seahawks.

I like the Dolphins over the Bills in a pick ’em game, which will be played at the Rogers Centre (Toronto Blue Jays stadium).  The Dolphins comfortably won the last game 25-16, but the Toronto crowd may give the Bills an extra boost.

Patriots -5 over the Seahawks in Seattle is one that I want to look into more. The Jets -4 over the 49ers is another one I like, but the 49ers have been playing much better lately.

Panthers vs. Bucs on Monday Night is probably the most intriguing game of the week. The Panthers, at home, are 3-point favorites at (-120) and there’s a chance that it moves to -3.5. Both teams 9-3 will be fighting for first place. The the Bucs dominated the first game in Tampa Bay 27-3.…

— RAVENS: The Ravens take an early 6-0 lead, but it should be 10-0. They took the ball down to the 2, but had to settle for 3 instead of 7. Another 3 and out for the Bengals. It looks like we should be seeing a lot of those throughout the day. Allright, the Ravens finally put up 7. Take the 13-0 lead. This one goes into the half at 13-3. Fitzpatrick had a nice scramble and later connected to Houshmandzadeh for a 47-yard grab. Bengals threatened inside the redzone, but had to settle for 3. Raven TD. Derrick Mason delivers. 20-3. Mark Clayton goes yard, 70 yards to the house. 27-3. That’s what I’m talking about! I knew this one would be this week’s lock! Ravens win 34-3.

— BILLS: The Bills, who I have in a pick ’em teaser (with NYJ and BAL), had a 2nd and goal from the 2-yard line, but couldn’t get it in and missed a 19-yard FG! That would have tied it at 7, but now they’re still battling to get that TD back. This one goes into the half San Fran up 10-0. Bills take it to the 3 again, but settle for 3. Bills trail 10-3.

— COLTS: Addai gave up a fumble on the Colts first drive, which led to 3. The Colts answered back with a FG, the Browns managed another 3 and the Colts responded with a by taking it inside the redzone. They take it to the 1 and it’s 4th and 1. This is just the theme of the day, isn’t it? Manning snuck it in! Finally got a break. No wait! Manning lost the ball, the Browns recovered. This is just ridiculous! The refs said …

Well we had some good wins last week and few that were very disappointing, but remember the goal is to find a long winning streak. This week we will play all the teams that won and/or covered from last week and add a few more games. If you follow the wagering amount I outlined last week you would be wagering $38.50 to win $35 on all the following games:

1. Mississippi State at Mississippi (-14) MIS 45 MISS ST 0 WIN

2. Miami at NC State (+1.5) NCST 38 MIA 28 WIN

3. UAB (+9) at Central Florida UAB 15 UCF 0 WIN

4. Maryland at Boston College (-7) BC 28 MARY 21 PUSH

and Bet $27.50 for the following:

5. Florida (-16) at Florida State UF 45 FSU 15 WIN

6. UTEP (+5.5) at ECU ECU 53 UTEP 21 LOSS

7. Kent State at Buffalo (-9.5) KST 24 BUFF 21 LOSS

8. Syracuse at Cincinnati (-22) CIN 30 SYR 10 LOSS

9. South Carolina at Clemson (-1.5) CLEM 31 SC 14 WIN …

NFL WEEK 12 BETTING REACTION:

Today was another crazy day in the NFL. The Titans lost their first game of the season. I kept riding the Titans as they’ve won myself a lot of money in the last three weeks. I figured that they wouldn’t lose their first at home, but you know the Jets aren’t going to lay down. The Jets stopped the run and the Titans offense couldn’t do anything. That’s all there was to that one, along with a huge defensive let down by one of the NFL’s best defensive units.

My next play, Giants -3, is in good shape. The Giants built up a 24-12 lead, but the Cardinals are threatening in the end of the 3rd. Cardinals end up with a TD, 24-19.

The Cowboys got a big win to add 2 units. The Dolphins/Pats was the most entertaining game of the day. They battled back and forth for three quarters and the Pats ran away with in in the 4th. It was 31-28 at one point. The Dolphins defense has been solid all season long, so I thought I would get a good effort from them. If I knew the Dolphins were going to score 28 in this one, I would say that I’m pretty confident that they’ll win. Randy Moss went off: 3 TDs, 125 yards.

The Redskins are battling in Seattle. They had a 17-10 lead, but the Seahawks bounced right back to tie it.

We might have also seen Donovan McNabb’s last days as an Eagle. He was benched after the first half.

TONIGHT’S PICK:

I already have a 1-unit parlay of Colts and Packers, which pays 4 to 1.

Brandon likes the over 49. I can see this one scoring …

I am always working on coming up with a way to win without having to do countless hours of research. One thing I have learned about gambliing is never bet against a streak. When I go play blackjack I use a progressive method meaning that when I win one hand I increase my bet and continue to do so as long as the streak continues. I don’t double up but lets say I bet $15 and continue to win the progession would continue something like $20, $25, $35, $45, $60, $75 and so on. For me, this has worked out pretty well. The downfall is that you have to win at least two hands in a row to break even, after that it is all profit. For a while I have been trying to figure out a way to logically apply this to sports. So I came up with the idea that if a team has covered or not covered in at least two games in a row I will start betting with them or against them depending on whether they have covered or lost. A few exceptions apply, only bet with the streak as long as the team they are playing against is not on a streak as well. A couple of streaks that have happened this year in football. The Tennessee Titans have covered 9 of 10 with one push. So if we would have started betting with them after their second cover our bets would have looked like this:

1. Bet $27.50 to win $25 total profit $25

2. Bet $38.50 to win $35 total profit $60

3. Bet $55 to win $50 total profit $110

4. Bet $71.50 to win $65 total profit $175

5. Bet …

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the news lately, over 100 California homes burned to the ground in Santa Barbara county this past weekend. I felt compelled to help this situation, so I’ve decided that 100% of our website’s ad revenues this Friday, November, 21, will go to a recovery fund for the victims of this disaster.

To support this cause, all you have to do is visit www.wrestlescoop.com or www.thepassrush.com this Friday and visit our website like you normally do. You should also support our great sponsor, Yardbarker.com, for making this possible.

Additionally, this Christmas, all ad revenues generated on Christmas Day will be donated to charity. I haven’t decided on a charity yet, maybe we’ll have a poll here on the site and let our great fans vote on which charity they would like to see the contribution go to.

Thanks again for your continued patronage and tell your friends to support the cause.…

Thanks to the Philadelphia Phillies World Series victory, I have a nice bankroll to work with. I placed a small futures bet on them with 25:1 odds at the beginning of the season. After looking through the games this week, I decided to place the following bets:

Penn State -8 OVER IOWA. 2 units.

Iowa’s last second field goal crush PSU’s national championship dreams.

Titans -3 OVER BEARS. 4 units.

Titans come through with a 21-14 win even after their FB coughed up the ball on the 1 when he could have had a TD. Why would they not give the ball to LenDale White in that situation?

Panthers -9.5 OVER RAIDERS. 3 units.

Panthers come through with the 17-6 win.

Rams +9 OVER JETS. 2 units.

I knew the Jets would win, but was thinking that they would come out by merely a TD. I didn’t see this one being a blow out. I should have kept them out of my teaser card too. I guess I put too much emphasis on the Rams beating the Cowboys and Redskins and keeping it close with the Patriots along with the Jets loss to the Raiders.

1-Unit 8-Team Teaser (Pays 10:1): Cardinals -2.5, Jaguars +0.5, Packers +9.5, Panthers -2.5, Rams +16, Ravens +7, Dolphins -1, Titans +4.

I think it has a good chance of hitting, but that’s why they call them teasers. Usually 6-7 teams will hit, and 1 will screw you. Let’s see what happens.…