Football Picks Against the Spread

Question:

I need to decide who to start in my flex spot for a standard scoring league.

Kendall Wright @ HOU
Robert Meachem @ KC
Dexter McCluster vs. SD

Or do I drop one of those guys to pick up Nate Burleson vs. MIN, but I’m limited to 12 add/drops for the year and already used 3.

Answer:

I would go with Robert Meachem, who has a pretty favorable matchup against the Chiefs. He’s also a deep ball threat, so maybe this week is the week that he cashes in that 40-yard TD to put your team over the top.

Kendall Wright has the toughest matchup against Texans defense that doesn’t give up a whole lot of points.

Dexter McCluster is too inconsistent for me to put in my starting lineup. I think you go Meachem here.…

Solid start to the week with a winner on Thursday with Washington. Hopefully, we can turn that positive momentum into a winning weekend.

CLEMSON (-7) vs. Boston College: I have recently made several posts about situational plays and at first glance you may think I would lean BC here as Clemson comes off the tough loss to FSU. However, I think we have an overreaction here against Clemson. Yes, Clemson is coming off a tough loss verse FSU, but Clemson was a 15 point underdog so winning outright was probably out of reach anyways. I am sure Clemson was disappointed with the loss, but not devastated as some teams may be. More importantly though, you cannot deny the talent mismatch on the field in this ACC battle. BC doesn’t even have a decent loss yet. They get beat at home verse Miami, who is weak at best, and then lost last week on the road at Northwestern, clearly the 5th or 6th best team in the Big 10. BC’s lone win comes against Maine, half the teams in the Lingerie Football League could beat them (OK maybe not, but you get my point). I think there are too many mismatches on both sides of the ball. So long as Clemson comes with some general incentive to win this game they should easily cover this spread.  PLAY ON CLEMSON (-7) for 1 unit.

Arizona St at California (+2). Situational play with Cal here. Type this game into google and the one continual theme is that Cal is in a must win position. I hate when people say that, but Cal does need to win here or a bowl game may be out of reach. Overall Cal has played ok. I think …

Stanford at Washington (+7): Much more of my analysis of games, after taking last year off, comes down to spot/situational plays. Tonight we have a perfect example of a great situational play. Stanford comes off a huge win over the Trojans, but do benefit from having 12 days to recover from that big win. However, I said in an earlier post that I don’t believe Stanford is that great of a football team and I am going to stick with that theory and play against them here. Stanford also plays their first road game of the year tonight in a hostile stadium on national TV. Besides the fact that Washington is playing at home with 12 days rest there are several other reasons to like them. First, this is a must win. If you look at their schedule, a defeat tonight could smell big trouble as they play at Oregon, home vs USC, at Arizona, home vs Oregon St, and at California. So look for Washington to come into this game really focused and prepared to make a statement. Second, this is the first PAC-10 conference game, so further motivation. Finally, I like their defense. They are weak against the run, but very good against the pass. If they can force a couple interceptions, Nunes is averaging one per game, then it could set the stage for a close finish. I will take the points here with Washington. PLAY ON WASHINGTON (+7) FOR 1 UNIT.…

Finally, a week that I like which features four home teams worth looking into. I think you take a hard look into Cardinals (-6), Falcons (-7), Broncos (-6.5), and Packers (-7.5).  Those four games are at the top of my list this week. Let’s get after it. Be sure to vote below for your favorite pick this week.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) over Carolina Panthers — Confidence: 9/10 — The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL right now, are we all in agreement there? Atlanta won and covered the spread against the Panthers twice last year including a 31-17 win at home and I think the outcome should be the same. The Panthers don’t have a pass rush and their secondary isn’t very good, which means that the Falcons will be able to move the ball effectively, rarely punt, and will score a lot of points. The Falcons defense is also very strong. They picked off Peyton Manning 4 times and held the Chargers to 3 points. The Panthers offensive struggles that were seen against Tampa Bay and New York should continue.  The only scare here is if Cam Newton finally has that week where he goes H.A.M. Even if he does, his defense will let him down once again. Panthers’ defensive star LB Jon Beason is also questionable with a knee injury. Want some trends to back this up? Atlanta is 4-0 ATS against the Panthers in their last 4 and are 11-2 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 dome games and 6-11 ATS on the road.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 8/10 — If the same Cardinals defense that showed up in the …

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6)

The one downside to this pick is the Cardinals don’t necessarily have an offensive juggernaut and won’t light up the scoreboard against a solid Miami defense, but I’m banking on the Cardinals defense dominating the the Dolphins. The Cardinals defense is for real. I’m not overreacting their wins over the Patriots and Eagles either. I’m an Eagles fan and witnessed the Eagles debacle first-hand last week.

The Cardinals beat Vick’s ass and they did the same thing to Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. I don’t think Vick had a single snap where he had more than 3 seconds to get the football out of his hands. If Vick held onto the football for 4 seconds, he was either scrambling for minimal yardage, throwing an errant pass, getting sacked, or fumbling the football. I’m not going to put the blame on the Eagles offensive line either, the Cardinals defensive front four simply outplayed the Eagles offensive line.

If the Cardinals bring the same pressure they brought in the first three weeks, they’re going to dominate this game. The Cardinals managed to make Tom Brady befuddled. Imagine what they’re going to do when facing rookie Ryan Tannehill. It’s no surprise that the Cardinals defense rank 2nd in sacks behind the Chicago Bears. The Cardinals have 12 sacks so far. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, DE Darnell Docket is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Tannehill has struggled this year as his average QB rating is 58.3. Last week against the Jets, he completed just 44% of his passes and threw an INT. That’s now 1 TD and 4 INTs for Tannehill. In week 1, the Texans picked him off thrice. His yard-per-attempt is an awful 6.0 …

In was a tough week 3 thanks in part to 9 home dogs on this week’s card. It was a mixed bag as the home dogs went 4-3 ATS this week. Our only play on Sunday was the Steelers. It was looking good for 3 quarters going into the 4th with a 31-21 lead until a little Oakland magic that only comes with home field advantage occurred, which gave the Raiders the upset win. Tonight we have another home dog on Monday Night.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

First, I’m not touching this game. To give you a teaser of what I like in week 4, I think you take a hard look at Cardinals (-6.5) at home over the Miami Dolphins, especially if Reggie Bush (suffered a knee injury and didn’t play the rest of the game) is ruled out. Miami’s success is squarely on the back of Reggie Bush and the Dolphins offense was ineffective against the Jets once Bush left the game. The Cardinals have a solid defense and will hold the Dolphins to 13 points or less next week. Now onto tonight’s game.

I’m going to pick my battles against the 12-6 home dogs and this isn’t a spot to pick against them on Monday Night. Seattle is a tough place to play. The Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home in the last three years, including a 6-2 record when a home underdog of 3 points or less.The Packers have faired pretty well on the road going 11-8 ATS. I’m going to take them for purposes of the pick ’em league, but there’s no shame in passing on the game due to uncertainty.

The public loves the Packers and that’s what Vegas wants. 86% …

We had 7 home dogs on Sunday and how did they fair? 4-3 ATS to extend their record to 12-6 ATS on the year. This week wasn’t as damaging to road favorites as week 2. In week 2, the home dogs went 5-1 ATS. As you should know by now, stay away from betting against home dogs. If you do, pick your battles and proceed with caution.

As I stated before I even got into the picks, I hated this week and that was precisely why. I didn’t see any value in taking the points with any home dogs when they were collectively a toss up and you ended up with a mixed bag as the road favorites went 3-4 ATS.

I stayed away from every home dog this week expect one: Steelers (-4) over Raiders. I tried to pick a battle against one home dog this week — and they got me. This game was one that could have been won as the Steelers dominated the 1st half and were holding a 31-21 lead going into the 4th quarter until an Antonio Brown turnover resulted in a Raiders drive that changed the momentum their way.

Week 3 Home Dog Results:

Minnesota Vikings (+7) defeat San Francisco 49ers — 24-13

Tennessee Titans (+3) defeat Detroit Lions — 44-41

Oakland Raiders (+4) defeat Pittsburgh Steelers — 34-31

Arizona Cardinals (+4) defeat Philadelphia Eagles — 27-6

Buffalo Bills (-3) defeat Cleveland Browns — 24-14

Houston Texans (-1.5) defeat Denver Broncos — 31-25

New York Jets (-3) defeat Miami Dolphins — 23-20…