Football Picks Against the Spread

My Sunday is contingent upon the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders game. I have a medium-sized play  on the Steelers (-4) over the Raiders and the Steelers are on top 31-21 at the end of the 3rd quarter. It was a mere 7/10 confidence pick as nothing warranted an 8/10 or more on Sunday. I didn’t do much else as I warned that I hated this week! We had 9 home dogs and I had to pick and choose my battles this week. I didn’t like any home favorites and the best road favorite worth taking a shot on, in my opinion, was the Steelers (-4).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)

Tonight we have a rematch of the AFC Championship. Earlier this week I picked the Ravens and I’m sticking to it. The main two factors for me are that (1) this is a revenge game for the Ravens who should have won the AFC Championship last year; and (2) the Ravens are at home in the lights. The Ravens were 8-0 at home last year.

The Cardinals and Giants have provided a blue print on how to beat the Patriots. Teams that can generate pressure can beat Tom Brady and that’s what the Ravens are able to do. I expect a tight game and a game that should be low scoring. The over/under is set pretty high at 48.5. The Patriots have an improved defense from last year so expect the Ravens to be limited offensively.

I think you can even get fancy here and take a shot with a parlay of Ravens (-2.5)/Under 48.5. You can also tease this game to make the spread Ravens (+4.5)/Under 55.5. This isn’t the best game to bet on, …

Question:

Should I start or sit Peyton Hillis in week 3 @ New Orlenas? This is for my flex and my other options are Mark Ingram vs. KC or Michael Crabtree @ MIN.

Answer:

Peyton Hillis has been a disappointment for fantasy owner who likely spent a mid-round pick on him when a quality WR could have been taken such as Mike Wallace or Stevie Johnson.

The good news for Peyton Hillis this week is the Saints defense. They’ve given up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs through two games this season. Jamaal Charles also tweaked his inured knee last week against the Bills. Although Charles should play this week (he’s listed as probable), the injury gives the Chiefs staff more reasons to decrease his workload while giving Hillis more carries.

Hillis saw 7 carries in week 1 and 11 carries last week. Hills may see as many as 15 carries this week. Although Hillis in week 1 was a bust against the Falcons, Hillis had a much better game in week 2 against the Bills picking up 66 yards on 11 carries and hauling in 3 receptions for 25 yards. A 6.0 YPC and 12.5 YPR average make fantasy owners happy, but he just needs to get more touches and he should have that opportunity against the Saints this week.

I don’t trust Ingram in my starting lineup since his fantasy numbers are always contingent on whether he gets any goalline opportunities for the Saints. Without the goalline opportunities, he won’t put up any big numbers and his statline may come in at 15 carries for 60 yards on a good day. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles also put a big dent in his touches.

Michael Crabtree …

Question:

Should I start Lance Moore or Marques Colston in week 3.  My other active WR’s are A.J. Green, Mike Wallace, and at Flex Stevie Johnson in a PPR league.

Answer:

Marques Colston is listed as questionable with a foot injury, so you may want to put Lance Moore in the starting lineup. If you find out right before kickoff that Colston is going to be playing, then I would insert him in your lineup as he’s a more consistent producer compared to Moore.

Your other wide receivers and flex should do plenty of damage this week. A.J. Green @ WAS, Mike Wallace @ OAK, and Stevie Johnson @ CLE are all quality starts this week due to their favorable matchups and should put up big numbers this week.

Good luck!…

Here are some lines that I liked for this week:

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers -3 L

St. Louis Rams +8 @ Chicago Bears L

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 @ Dallas Cowboys W

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Minnesota Vikings L

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts -3 L

Houston Texans -1.5 @ Denver Broncos W

Good Luck!…

Question:

Who should I start? Steven Ridley or Ryan Mathews in week 3?

Answer:

Steven Ridley will take on the Baltimore Ravens on the road and Ryan Mat]thews will have the Atlanta Falcons at home. Ridley has so far been a great mid-round pick putting up about 18 points in week 1 and nearly 10 points in week 2.

Mathews has been sidelined for two weeks with a collarbone injury. His return is still questionable. Matthews wants to play and the fact that he practiced this past week is an encouraging sign. He’s on track to get the start this Sunday, but I don’t like the fact that it’s still an unknown if and how much he’ll play.

The good news is that the Chargers have the 4:00 game and the Patriots play at night. I think you go into this one with Ryan Mathews as the starter and if he’s a last-minute scratch, which is unlikely at this point, you can insert Stevan Ridley in your lineup. Mathews is the play this week as he has a better matchup than Ridley.…

Question:

I can’t figure out if I should Mike Wallace or Dwayne Howe at WR2. Help!!

Answer:

You shouldn’t go wrong with either player. I like Mike Wallace’s matchup in Oakland, especially since the Raiders top two corners are injured.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:  Whoever plays cornerback for the Raiders on Sunday, they’re going to have their hands full with Pittsburgh receiver Mike Wallace. “Fastest kid in the world,” Raiders safety Michael Huff said of Wallace. “You see him on film and you see corners playing off … he is probably track-Olympic-fast, to be honest.” The Raiders have been looking for answers all week now that they are without both starting cornerbacks, Ron Bartell (shoulder) and Shawntae Spencer (foot). Backups Pat Lee and Joselio Hanson didn’t inspire much confidence last week against the Dolphins.

Wallace is averaging 55 YPG and has had a TD in each game.

Dwayne Bowe also had a hell of a game against the Bills with 8 receptions, 102 yards, and 2 TDs. The Saints have a suspect defense which should allow Bowe to put up big numbers as well.

The bottom line is that you can’t go wrong with either of these guys. With the Raiders starting corners out, I think you should exploit that and take Mike Wallace this week.

Good luck!…

You’re luck to have survived week 2 of your survivor pool if you avoided the New England Patriots and opted for the Cincinnati Bengals. We picked the Texans in week 1 and debated between Bengals and Patriots for week 2. The majority of fans voted for the Bengals over the Browns, which was the pick to make in order to “save” the Patriots pick for later in the season. Well played if you avoided the Patriots last week.

In week 3, I think the choice comes down to Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams or New Orleans Saints over Kansas City Chiefs. I would like to stick to home teams, but if you don’t like either of those games, you can look into either San Francisco 49ers over Minnesota Vikings or Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders.

Despite the Pats getting upset at home by the Cardinals, I still believe you do not pick road teams in survivor pools, so I’ll only focus on the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints.

I don’t have a lot of faith in the Saints defense, but their offense should be able to take care of business against the Chiefs at home. The Saints were 8-0 at home last year and covered the spread in every game. However, without the services of head coach Sean Peyton, the Saints are struggling, starting the season 0-2. The Saints will also be without WR Marques Colston.

I expect the Bears to rebound this week after their week 2 debacle in Green Bay. The Bears had 10 days to prepare for this one so the extra rest should be to their advantage. The Rams put up a hell of a fight the last two weeks and ended up beating …