Football Picks Against the Spread

TEMPLE (+7) at Penn State: I took a stand against PSU last week verse Navy and got crushed. At first I thought I would avoid this game, but after analyzing the game and the teams I decided to take a second stand against PSU. PSU has probably played about as well as anyone could have expected. Temple on the other hand has clearly under performed. PSU finally got their first win last week and therefore it is a potential let down spot, yes again, for them. Temple should be more than ready and focused for this in-state rivarly. So really what this comes down to for me is which team is more likely to play their best game and for me that is Temple. Stats for both teams in pretty much all offensive and defensive categories fall below average, but I think Temple can improve and should do so on Saturday. PLAY ON TEMPLE for 1 UNIT.

ARMY/WAKE FOREST OVER 55: The key to this game is obviously the offenses. The two defenses have combined to give up over a 150 points in just 5 games total. Army is terrible against the pass and should not be able to stay with the speed of WF. On the other side, WF is terrible against the run and we know Army is going to run the ball over 90% of the time. I think both teams have the ability to score in the low 30s, and it is possible if WF’s passing game gets going early they could score have a hundred themselves. BET 1 UNIT ON THE OVER 55.…

Couldn’t believe some of the lines that I came across this week, here are some of my favorite picks, grabbed them all early:

Virginia @ TCU -17 W

Kansas State +17 @ Oklahoma W

Utah @ Arizona State -3 W

Temple @ Penn State -7 W

South Florida -10 @ Ball State L

Bowling Green +22 @ Virginia Tech L

Fresno State @ Tulsa -5.5 L

GA Tech -7/Southern Miss +11 L

4-4-0
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In week 1, we nailed our only 9/10 game of the season and nailed it big thanks to the Texans. In week 2, we hit a few singles ending up with a 4-2 record against the spread. We hit both the Sunday and Monday Night picks are now stand 2-0 on Monday Night. We are rolling into week 3 with a ton of momentum. After taking an initial look at the lines, I hate this week. Nothing popped out instantly and I had to do a lot of digging to separate which lines to consider. We have 9 home dogs this week and that scares the crap out of everyone with the home dogs starting off the season 8-3 ATS, but I can’t help but pick against the majority of them in week 3. Let’s see what we got. Games are ranked in order of confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over OAKLAND RAIDERS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Raiders just haven’t played well at all this year. I had higher expectations coming into this season. 75% of the public is taking the Steelers (-4). This looks like a road favorite you can take a shot on. The Raiders are without their two starting corners and their defense has been terrible. Wish the backups good luck covering Wallace and Brown. The Raiders can’t generate pressure and they can’t tackle. McFadden is off to a slow start in the Raiders new blocking scheme. His average is a dreadful 2.1 YPC. I’m going to make the Steelers a top play this week.

Detroit Lions (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS — Confidence: 7/10 — Through two weeks, the Titans look like garbage but they had to face the Pats in week 1 and then go on …

We have a huge update in the New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers game. It has been reported that WR Hakeem Nicks, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Domenik Hixon, and OT David Diehl are all ruled out for Thursday’s game. This news moved the spread from Giants (-1.5) to Panthers (-2), a 3.5-point swing.

Read our full analysis of the game here. I was liking the Panthers pick before this news came out and now I like this pick even more. I am raising the confidence level of this pick from a 6/10 to an 8/10. Hakeem Nicks is the key injury for me here. With Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and the Giants third receiver all sidelined, the Panthers are afforded the ability to keep a safety deep to prevent the deep ball to Victor Cruz.

I’m not too worried about Andre Brown and Reuben Randle stepping up for the injured Bradshaw and Nicks. The Panthers will just double cover Victor Cruz all game and they’ll be fine. The Giants have TE Martellus Bennet who will be targeted a lot in this game, but he’ll have his hands full with Jon Beason and Luke Kuechly on top of him throughout the game.

The Panthers offense that ranked 7th in total yards gained, 3rd in rushing yards, and 5th in points last year will be just fine against a defense that’s given up an average of 370 yards and 29 points per game so far this year. Who do you like in this one? Vote below!

Prediction: Panthers 31 – Giants 20

Pick Against the Spread: Panthers -2 (Confidence: 8/10)

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I’m still working on my week 3 picks against the spread, which should hit the printing press tomorrow. This is a tough week since we have 9 teams going on the road who are favored over the home dogs who are 8-3 ATS on the year. After taking a look into CBS Sports picks against the spread, here is where we have the highest concentration of consensus:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over OAKLAND RAIDERS – 8/8
2. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS – 7/8
3. Detroit Lions (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS – 7/8
4. ARIZONA CARDINALS (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles – 7/8
5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars – 7/8
6. Buffalo Bills (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS – 7/8
7. St. Louis Rams (+7.5) over CHICAGO BEARS – 7/8
8. New England Patriots (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS – 7/8

The rest of the games have at least 3 writers on each side. Stay tuned for our week 3 picks against the spread. Let’s hear it from you, which game do you like best this week?

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We escaped Monday Night with a win thanks to our Monday Night teaser special with the Broncos (+10) & Over 44. My initial gut feeling was to be all over the Falcons (-3), but there was lots of chatter of a Peyton Manning outright win, so I figured, there’s no way Peyton will lose by double digits on Monday Night, right? Well, he almost did, but we got the cover with our teaser thanks to an attempted 4th quarter comeback. We nailed our Sunday and Monday night picks to continue the momentum into week 3. We are now just three days away from a Thursday Night game between the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1.5)

Week 2 Recap

Both the Giants and the Panthers got their first win of the season last week. Eli Manning fueled a 2nd half comeback as he threw for over 500 yards and won 41-34. The Giants were down 24-13 at the half and I was delighted with my Bucs (+7.5) pick. The Giants were then down 27-16 going into the 4th until Eli Manning went H.A.M. on the Buccaneers defense posting 25 points in the 4th quarter to win 41-34. And I still got the cover by 1/2 point.

The Panthers took care of business at home against the Saints as I predicted. The final score 35-27. The Panthers put up 463 yards of offense, but also allowed 486 yards to the Saints. Drew Brees’ early pick-six was the difference in that one. The Panthers also put up over 200 passing yards and 200 rushing yards. Cam Newton was extremely efficient 14/20, 253 yards, 12.7 YPA, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, 0 INT, 71 …

Our week 2 picks went 8-6-1 ATS and 3-2 ATS for the ones money was placed on. We nailed our two picks at 1:00, lost two at 4:00, and closed out Sunday of week 2 with a win thanks to the 49ers over the Lions. Our pick ’em league leader is a mere 15-14 ATS and it’s not too late to chase him for a chance to win an NFL Shop t-shirt. See details. Tonight, we’re given an outstanding Monday Night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos. Is this one worth betting on? Let’s take a look.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-3)

The spread has not moved on this line at all, standing pat at Falcons (-3). I was expecting the majority of money to come in on the Falcons, but that just hasn’t been the case. The public loves Peyton Manning this week on the road and would rather take him with a field goal. We have a near 50-50 split on where the bets are being placed tonight. The public is actually favoring Denver (+3) with 53% of the bets coming in on Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Both teams are coming off big week 1 wins. The Falcons went on the road to destroy the Kansas City Chiefs 40-24 and the Denver Broncos took care of business at home by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-19.

I’ve been liking the Falcons throughout the week as I see their offense likely ending the season in the top three in both points scored and yards gained. The Falcons have been dominant at home where Matt Ryan is 26-4 throughout his career. The Falcons are 9-5 ATS at home in the last three years and the Broncos …