Football Picks Against the Spread

You never make a living betting against home dogs in the NFL and this week proved that. It’s very tempting to take road favorites due to low spreads, but the home dogs dominated this week going 5-1 straight up and against the spread. The Texans were the only road favorite to come out with a win and the cover.

Texans @ Jaguars +7 — Texans win 27-7

Vikings @ Colts +2.5 — Colts win 23-20

Saints @ Panthers +3 — Panthers win 35-27

Raiders @ Dolphins +2.5 — Dolphins win 35-13

Cowboys @ Seahawks +3 — Seahawks win 27-7

Redskins @ Rams +3 — Rams win 31-28

Add Browns +7.5 and Cardinals +13.5 to the mix and it was a hell of a week for Vegas.

We ended up going even for the day by hitting our Texans/Bengals teaser and Bucs (+7.5), but gave that back on Cowboys (-3) and Redskins (-3). I went with Steelers (-6) and Chargers (-6) in the pick ’em league, but passed on them. Those were the picks to make at 4:00.…

We hit both our 1:00 picks with the Texans/Bengals teaser and Bucs (+7.5). We gave some of that back with Dallas. My warnings about Seattle’s home field and the Cowboys record following a division game came to fruition. Those two trends threw up a red flag that I should have listed to. I have another play on Washington. If they win, I’m up big for the day, and if they lose, then I’m even for the day. We have some room to make a play on tonight’s game, but is it worth taking?

DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

The 49ers were absolutely dominant last week on the road against the Packers. Other than a punt rerun that they gave up, their defense was absolutely flawless and their offense imposed their will over the Packers defense by moving the chains running the ball and completing passes when Alex Smith dropped back. The Lions weren’t as impressive in week 1 due to Matthew Stafford turning the ball over several times and keeping the Rams in the game.

60% of the public is taking the 49ers against the spread and 55% like the over 46. I picked the 49ers earlier in the week with a 5/10 confidence pick. They should win this one at home, but the Lions should be able to keep this one within a touchdown throughout most of the game. I give the Lions a good chance of getting the cover, but I’ll give a slight lean to 49ers (-7).

When these teams faced each other last year in Detroit, the 49ers came out with a 25-19 win. I’m going to stick with the 49ers here. After last week’s performance, I put them #2 in my power rankings …

Question: Which player should I go with in week 2 at the flex?

Steve Smith @ CAR or Stevan Ridley vs. ARI

Answer:

I like Stevan Ridley. First, Steve Smith is listed as questionable with knee injury, but will be active. Although I expect the Saints vs. Panthers game to be a high-scoring shootout, Smith’s injury is still a concern for me. Steven Ridley, on the other hand, was spectacular in week 1 and will get the Pats goalline carries. Since the Pats are facing the Cardinals, that would lead to a lot of scoring opportunities for the Patriots. Ridley had 20 carries, 125 yards and 1 TD in week 1 against the Titans. Very impressive numbers.…

Antonio Gates comes into his week 2 game against the Tennessee Titans listed as questionable. Antonio Gates suffered a rib injury in week 1 against the Oakland Raiders. Gates was able to finish the game despite the hit to his ribs, but sat out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Gates’ history of injuries has fantasy owners concerned, but don’t be overly worried yet. It was a foot injury that has plagued Gates the last three years. This was merely a shot to the ribs that caused some soreness.

Gates was able to return to practice on Friday, although it was limited. Gates informed media outlets that he’ll physically and mentally ready to go this Sunday when his Chargers take on the Tennessee Titans, but he’s still experiencing some soreness in his ribs. During practice, Gates wore a protective vest.

I’m an Antonio Gates owner and willing to keep him in my starting lineup. If Gates is a last-minute scratch you should pick up Heath Miller on the waivers. Miller had 50 yards and a TD in week 1 and should be a quality tight end to pick up last minute since the Steelers face the Jets at home at the 4:00 spot.

Another plus for Antonio Gates is his matchup against the Titans D who didn’t have an answer for the Patriots tight end duo last week. The Titans gave up 12 receptions, 119 yards, and 2 TDs to the Patriots Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.…

You’re boy is back! 2-for-2 at 1:00 with Tampa Bay (+7.5) and the a teaser with Texans & Bengals. Have Washington (-3) and Dallas (-3) at 4:00 and playing with the house’s money.

The icing on the cake… my Eagles win 24-23 and I happen to take Raven (+2.5) in the pick ’em league. Eagles get lucky again… back-to-back 1-point wins.

…

Question: Which 2 wide receivers should I start in week 2?

Mike Wallace vs NYJ
Eric Decker @ ATL
Torrey Smith @PHI
Brandon Lloyd vs. ARI

Answer:

Very nice group of wide receivers. Who did you take in the first 3 rounds? It looks like you got your QB and 2 RBs early and then went WR, WR, WR, WR and got a mighty fine set of receivers to work with.

I like Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker this week.  The Pats should be able to score a ton of points at home against the Cardinals and hopefully Tom Brady looks Lloyd’s way in the endzone rather than the tight ends he typically looks to. I wasn’t high on Lloyd coming into this season since he’s Brady’s fourth option after Gronkowski, Herandnez, and Welker, but he still managed 5 receptions for 69 yards in week 1.

I also like Eric Decker due to his matchup against the Falcons. This game should be an offensive shootout and Manning will come out throwing to keep up with the Falcons high octane offense.

I love Torrey Smith and have him drafted on two of my teams as my WR3. He’ll be covered by Nnamdi Asomugha or Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, so that will be a tough matchup for him.

The good news for Mike Wallace is that Darrell Revis is likely out this week with a concussion.

Good luck!…

NAVY (+7) at Penn State: Too many reasons not to take a chance on Navy in this great spot. First, PSU comes off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia last week. A game they should have won as they benefitted from four Virginia turnovers, but missed four field goals. Second, Navy comes off a bye after playing pretty poorly in Ireland verse ND two weeks ago. Third, PSU is still a depleted football team and facing that triple option of Navy would not be easy for any team. I look for Navy to ground and pound PSU early, which should lead to very close game. Finally, you have to wonder where PSU is mentally after the crazy off-season, a tough loss at home during week 1, and a heartbreaking loss in week 2. Even for a good football team this would be a tough spot. Play 2 units on Navy (+7). Play 1 unit on Navy (+225).

ALABAMA (-20) at Arkansas. Arkansas comes off a very embarrasing loss last week to ULM. Arkansas was ranked in the top 10 and probably had outside hopes of playing in a meaningful bowl game. Now all hope of that is gone so you have to wonder where this team will be mentally when facing arguably the best team in the country. Second, rumors have it that Arkansas’ starting QB will not start. A second string QB against this Alabama defense can only smell trouble. This is pretty much a no brainer. Alabama can simply name the score in this one. Play on Ala for 2 units.

ULM vs AUBURN (-15.5). Basically see above. ULM comes off their best win in school history. I am sure every player on the team lived the high life …