Football Picks Against the Spread

This year we get  a taste of what it will be like to have the NFL feature a Thursday Night game each week. We start off with a fantastic NFC North matchup between two playoff contenders. In week 1, we hit our big money play in the Texans and won our Monday Night pick thanks to the Ravens. We go into Thursday Night with a full head of steam. Here’s my analysis, prediction, and pick against the spread for this game.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)

Matchup History

The Packers won both contests against the Bears last year. On September 25 in Chicago, the Packers won 27-17 and covered the 4-point spread. On December 25 in Green Bay, the Packers won 35-21 and covered the 13-point spread. The Packers also beat the Bears 21-14 as 3.5-point favorites in the 2011 playoffs after splitting games in the 2010 season, which saw a 10-3 Packers win on January 2 and a 20-17 Packers loss on September 27. The Bears covered both spreads in 2010 while the Packers covered both spread in 2011.

Line Trends

54% of the public is taking the Packers against the spread and 46% of the public is taking the points. We have an even split (2-2) on the expert picks at covers.com. The line opened at Packers (-5.5) and moved to Packers (-6) as some early money came in on the Packers.

Injuries

WR Greg Jennings tweaked his groin in the 49ers game and is listed as questionable. I expect Jennings to play. Bears CB Charles Tillman injured his leg in the Colts game. He played another snap after the injury occurred, but then sat out the rest of the game. He is listed as questionable. …

In week 1 of our survivor pool picks, we selected the Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins. Other popular choices made were Chicago Bears over Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions over St. Louis Rams.

In week 2, there are three games that the majority of people are taking: (1) New England Patriots over Arizona Cardinals, (2) New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and (3) Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns.

I’m torn between the Patriots and Bengals. The Patriots is the safest play here and the only game that should be an absolute lock. In preseason survivor pool picks where I planned out every game for the remainder of the year, I had the New York Giants this week with the intent to save the Patriots pick for later in the season, specifically in week 10 over the Bills (or week 6 over the Seahawks).

It may seam foolish to save the Patriots until week 10 when you simply want to move on to the next week in the safest way possible while others take gambles on taking weaker teams just to save their stronger teams for later.

I don’t want to take the Giants over the Bucs for a few reasons. First, Eli Manning and the Giants ended my survivor pool hopes (and about 75% of others) in week 5 last year when they were upset by the Seahawks as 7+ point favorites at home. Second, the Giants just did not look good last week against the Cowboys. The Giants have some secondary issues to be concerned with. Their weakness is at the cornerback position. If Josh Freeman shows up on the road, he can do some damage with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Tampa Bay also moved …

We’re ready for some Monday Night Football. Tonight we have a double header featuring the Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by the Oakland Raiders (+1) hosting the San Diego Chargers. I’m not touching the Raiders/Chargers game, but the Ravens/Bengals is worth looking into.

We hit our big-money play to open the season. Our first 9/10 confidence pick on the year was a winner thank to the Texans, who took care of business against the Dolphins. Unfortunately, I then decided to play with the house’s money and made some small plays in the later games only to give a small portion on those winnings back, but hey, it was free money to play with. I got a little over eager due to finally snapping my football withdrawal, but we just have to stick to our method of identifying one or two key games each week and taking them down hard. Let’s see what we have tonight.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7)

Line Trends

I would first like to note the action on this spread since it opened. The line opened at Ravens (-6) before moving to Ravens (-7.5) before settling back down to Ravens (-7). 84% of bettors taking the moneyline have the Ravens. 63% of the public is taking the Ravens against the spread. 64% of the experts at covers.com like the Ravens.

History

Over the last 3 years, these teams are 3-3 head-to-head. Cincinnati has the edge with the spread with a 4-1-1 record ATS. The Ravens have  won three straight against the Bengals, while the Bengals won the three games before that. Last year the Ravens won both games. On November 21 in Baltimore, the Ravens won 31-24. On January 1 in Cincinnati, the …

We won our big money game with the Texans. Didn’t do a whole lot at 4:00. Had some on the Panthers, who let me down, but I did state to proceed with caution. The Bucs are a much improved team as I suspected.

I’m not crazy about tonight’s game. I don’t want to bet against Peyton Manning, but I feel that he’s just not 100% and will need a few games before he’s back in normal form. He has a tough matchup against this Steelers defense. I think it will be a tight game and one where I’ll lean on the under 45.5. I’m not overly confident with the Steelers, who have some injury concerns. I have a parlay on the Steelers moneyline and the under which pays 3:1. The pick has a 6/10 confidence rating.

I’ll save a big bet for the Ravens (-6.5) over the Bengals tomorrow night. Pick warrants an 8/10. Not going to touch the Raiders/Chargers game.…

Nailed my big opening play on the NFL season. Damn, that one felt good. I went BIG on the Texans and they delivered!

4:00 games coming up. Texans was my big money game. Have some small plays on the Packers moneyline, Panthers (-2.5), and Seahawks (-3). Nothing big. Hope you guys jumped on the Texans.

This is great: if logos were honest.

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Ball State at CLEMSON (-27.5): I know this is a huge number and generally I stay away from big favorites, but the talent in this game is so lopsided I can’t help myself. I am not just talking about their rankings either. Clemson is bigger, much faster, and more talented on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I don’t believe Clemson should have much of a hangover from beating Auburn, but it is possible. Clemson should have their sights set pretty high this year and it won’t bode them well to stumble here. I believe Clemson dominates start to finish and Ball State will be luck to score more than 10 points. I won’t lay these many points often, but I will here. 1 unit on Clemson.

Duke vs. Stanford OVER 55.5: We all know Stanford is not going to be as good as they were last year, but how much of a dropoff will they really have. In my opinion, significant, but that shouldn’t matter here against Duke. Stanford’s offense was terrible last week against a below average defense in San Jose State. Duke’s defensive, also below average simply cannot stop the run. FIU racked-up 165 rushing yards last week and scored 26 points. I look for Stanford to pound the run early to setup some easy screen passes and the occasional deep play-action score. Duke played the same starting schedule last year, FIU then Stanford, which resulted in a win and a loss; small revenge spot here for Duke. Duke’s offense should score some points here, I believe at least in the low 20s. Stanford’s offense will show some life here against another weak defense. Score Prediction 48-21. 1 unit on the over 55.5.

I won’t …