Football Picks Against the Spread

I’m about to take off gentlemen. I’m headed to New York City for a bachelor party. Before departing, I wanted to provide everyone with the final word for this weekend.

Brandon Phillips’ SMART BET is Back!

It’s good to have my boy Brandon Phillips back. Brandon was THE PASS RUSH’S college football guy in 2009 and 2010 until taking a break in 2011. We’re glad to have him back on board. Our readers were calling for his bowl special last year after going 9-3 ATS in the 2010 bowl season.

Just to give you a little story of how Brandon and I crossed paths. We were both 3rd-year law students. I see this guy in class (good old Taxation of Business Entities) with a sheet of every football spread for the week and he’s going through it and circling home underdogs and what type of field the team is on. If the visiting team plays on a different type of field, he’ll do some extended due diligence on the matchup and will look to stick with the home dog and the points. We then struck up a conversation about football betting and I invited him to begin contributing to the site.

I’m sure Brandon will be posting some Saturday college football picks for you. His opening pick of 2012 was a success, going with Cincinnati (-5) over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Bearcats rolled 34-10. Hopefully, there will be plenty more where that came from.

Sunday’s Final Word

I wish I could have had the same success as Brandon with my opening pick, but the Giants suffered from the Super Bowl hangover. Just a note on my confidence ratings, I grade my picks on a scale of 10. I never …

Glad to be back posting for the 2012 NCAA Football season. Long-time readers of the site know me as the NCAA guy, especially with my Bowl Special from 2010 where my Bowl picks went 9-3 against the spread. I took 2011 off from posting on the site due to work demands, but very glad to be back to continue posting my NCAA picks.

Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI (-5). Thursday night football starts off tonight with a Big East battle between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh comes off a pretty bad loss to Youngstown State, who in all honesty is actually a decent team. The question really comes down to whether Pittsburgh can get up for this game off the bad loss. There is a strong trend to play against first year coaches coming off a loss, 86-120-4 ATS, in the following game. I believe Cincinnati’s defense should handle Pittsburgh’s offense, who was only able to manage 17 points against Youngstown State. I don’t think Pittsburgh is that bad of a team, I just think this spot posses a lot of difficult obstacles for them to overcome. Play on Cincinnati (-5) for 1 unit.

FINAL: Cincinnati 34 – Pittsburgh 10…

Below are some quick over/under plays for NFL week 1 action. Be sure to check out all of my week 1 picks against the spread. My big play this week is a teaser of Texans -3/Under 50, my little play is the Panthers -2.5 over the Bucs. Be sure to sign up for our pick ’em league for a chance to win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt.

INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO BEARS – OVER/UNDER 43 – Touhh call here. I’m not touching it. What kind of numbers is Andrew Luck capable of against a Bears defense? Nobody knows until we see it on Sunday. Stay away. Slight lean on the over due to the Colts suspect defense that gave up 26.9 PPG last season. W

BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS – OVER/UNDER 40.5 – The bar is set pretty low for these teams. The Jets offense is struggling and the Jets defense will make it difficult for the Bills to score touchdowns. Slight lean on the under as both teams struggle to reach 20 points. L

JACKSONVILLE @ MINNESOTA – OVER/UNDER 38 – I like the over here as the bar has been set pretty low. Just a gut feeling that this could be an back-and-forth shootout. Weird games happen in Minnesota. Can we possibly see a 27-24 game here? I think so. W

MIAMI @ HOUSTON – OVER/UNDER 43 – I like this under here since Miami will struggle to score 10 points and Houston’s running game will slowly eat up clock against the 3rd ranked run defense from 2011. W

ST. LOUIS @ DETROIT – OVER/UNDER 46 – Stafford will be throwing darts on Sunday and Bradford will try to keep …

We posted potential survivor pool picks for the entire 2012 football season earlier.

My original survivor pool pick was New Orleans Saints over Washington Redskins.  The reason I picked the Saints was because there’s simply no other home game until the play Bucs in December which should be an easy win for them. I changed my picked to the Houston Texans over the Miami Dolphins. I still think the Saints will win this one, but the Redskins may put up a fight. With the Saints coaches suspended the Saints missing their best two defensive players in Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith, there was just too much risk with this pick. RGIII can also come in and have a Cam Newton-like debut.

Texans over the Dolphins is the much safer play this week. We all know the Dolphins offense will struggle to come up with points this season and the Texans were the 3rd best defense in the league last year. Look for the Dophins to be completely shut down while the Texans offense takes care of business to book the win. The Texans are the largest favorites this week as 12-point favorites.

Other potential options for you are the Chicago Bears over the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions over the St. Louis Rams, or Philadelphia Eagles over the Cleveland Browns. They’re all winners in my book.

Here is my full analysis for the Texans vs. Dolphins game. My prediction in this one is Texans 24 – Dolphins 10.  Good luck everyone.

Week 1 Survivor Pool Pick: Houston Texans…

Question: Which WR do I start in week 1?

Justin Blackmon vs. MIN
Dwayne Bowe vs. ATL

Answer:

If Dwayne Bowe didn’t hold out this offseason, Bowe would be a good choice, but it may take Bowe a few games to get back up to speed. Blackmon also held out for a long period of time, but he got a lot of reps in the preseason and has looked very good in preseason action.

Blackmon got a crazy amount of targets from Blaine Gabbert in the preseason. I expect Blackmon to have a solid rookie year with around 65 receptions, 900 yards, and 5 TDs to be a little conservative.  An 80 reception, 1,000 yard, 6 TD season is certainly a possibility based on this guy’s potential.

Blackmon has been very impressive so far this preseason and is drawing the praise of his coaching staff. Blackmon is the man to go with in week 1.…

Question: Which player should I start in my flex in week 1?

I’m in a standard league that has 3 flex spots.

Here are my players: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith, Kendall Wright, Robert Meachem.

I’ve pretty much  locked in DeAngelo Williams and Kevin Smith. I’m wondering who should start in the last spot.

Answer:

Expect MJD’s carries to be limited this week against the Vikings. The guy ended his holdout just a few days ago and may not even play. If he plays, I expect Rashad Jennings to get the majority of the work with MJD getting just a few carries. With MJD’s carries limited, I wouldn’t trust him in my starting roster.

I really like DeAngelo Williams this week. Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 32nd against the run last season and Jonathan Stewart is still recovering from a sprained ankle that he suffered in the preseason. DeAngelo Williams is going to have a monster game.

Kevin Smith is the other no brainer with Michael Leshoure suspended and Jahvid Best on the PUP. Kevin Smith will be getting all of the carries for the Lions against a Rams defense that is very poor against the run. I’m expecting a monster game from DeAngelo.

In the last spot, I am between Ronnie Brown and Robert Meachem. Check on the status of Ryan Matthews. He may have to sit week 1 out due to his broken collarbone. If Matthews is a scratch in week 1, Ronnie Brown is your man. If Ryan Matthews is set to start, I would take a shot on Robert Meachem and hope that he burns the Raiders with the deep ball from Philip Rivers. I need to see what Kendall Wright is all about …

After Texans (-10) over Dolphins and Giants (-3) over Cowboys, the next game that sticks out to me on the week 1 card is Panthers (-2.5) over Buccaneers, thanks to the Panthers two routs over the Bucs last year. Before you jump on this pick right away, let’s try to break this game down.

*** Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. ***

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This looks like a great spread to take since it’s essentially a pick ’em game and the Panthers beat the Bucs by an average of 25.5 points in their matchups last season. Last year the Panthers absolutely dominated the Bucs, which is why I am so tempted to take this game right out of the gate without thinking twice.

In week 16 last year, the Panthers demolished the Bucs when the game was played in Carolina 48-16. The Panthers running game trampled over the Bucs with the trio of Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams all gaining over 60 yards on the ground and averaging about 10 yards-per-carry. The Panthers put up 270 rushing yards and 163 passing yards.

The teams also faced each other in week 13 in Tampa Bay. The Panthers again rolling in that game 38-19. That game featured a more balanced Panthers attack that gained 222 yards in the air and 163 yards on the ground. Cam Newton also had three rushing touchdowns in that game. It’s clearly no surprise that the Bucs ranked last in the NFL against the run and the Panthers ranked 3rd in rushing offense in the NFL.

I’m not expecting another rout …