Football Picks Against the Spread

After looking at the Week 1 lineup, the only spread I’m going to go big on is HOUSTON (-10) over Miami. I’m actually going to tease the spread to HOUSTON (-3) & UNDER 50. With the Texans D, I don’t expect Miami to score more than 10 points. The Texans will easily cruise to victory. My other play is NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys. Other than those two games, nothing really interests me except Carolina (-1) over TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO (-9.5) over Indianapolis, and DETROIT (-9) over St. Louis.

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NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Dallas Cowboys — I’m taking the Giants in this one. They’ve owned this matchup in the last 3 years going 5-1 against the Cowboys. L

CHICAGO BEARS (-9.5) over Indianapolis Colts — Bears looks like a potential play here. Andrew Luck looks solid so far, but the Bears defense will prove to be too much in his first regular season game. W

Buffalo Bills (+4) over NEW YORK JETS — The Jets offense is pathetic. They can’t run the ball, they can’t pass the ball, they can’t block. Take the points. Bills are my favorite underdog this week. You can also add 7 points to the Bills spread to make it +11 and take the the under 47.5 if you want to tease this one. L

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10) over Miami Dolphins — I am all over this game and very confident in my teaser with Texans -3/Under 50. W

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS —  Should be a tight game …

We’re back with another season of NFL picks against the spread. We already have our Giants vs. Cowboys pick posted and we’re going to see what is on tap for Sunday, September 9, 2012. Before we can into the pick for this game, remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-10)

I’m very high on the Texans this year. The Texans defense ranked 2nd in yards allows and 4th in points allowed last season. Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator can take credit for that as the Texans ranked 30th and 29th respectively in those categories in 2010.

Despite the loss of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, the Texans should still have one of the better defenses in this league. They were able to add Bradie James to pair up with Brian Cushing to shore up their linebacking corp. Sophomore DE J.J. Watt, who had an amazing rookie campaign, is receiving a ton of phrase from Wade Phillips, who went as far as saying that this guy is a future Hall of Famer. The Texans also have one of the best sets of cornerbacks in the league with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson (2010 1st-round pick).

Houston is 6-0 (4-2 ATS) against Miami in their last 6 games. The faced each other least season in week 2. The game was in Miami and the Texans won 23-13. In that game, Arian Foster was limited to 10 touches due to his hamstring injury and Ben Tate got the bulk of the carries. Tate rushed the ball 23 times for 103 yards. With a healthy Arian Foster, the Texans offense should be …

We are just days away from the opening kickoff on Wednesday, September 5, 2012. The Super Bowl champion Giants are set to host the Dallas Cowboys. Before we can into the analysis for the game, remember to sign up for the pick ’em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. It’s a great way to track your record throughout the season and to compete against other readers of THE PASS RUSH and me.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-4)

I like the Giants in this one at home. The Giants had the Cowboys number last season. The Giants beat the Cowboys in the final week of the season for the NFC East Title 31-14. Eli Manning picked the Cowboys secondary apart throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs. That is exactly why the Cowboys acquired CB Brandon Carr in free agency and drafted CB Morris Claiborne. Victor Cruz did most of the damage in that final game with 6 receptions for 178 yards.

In the team’s previous contest in Dallas, the Giants escaped with a 37-34 win, again doing it with their passing game. Eli Manning threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have only beaten the Giants once in the last 3 years, so the Giants hold a 5-1 record against the Cowboys in their last 6 games and have covered the spread in each win. The only game they didn’t cover was their 33-20 loss on November 14, 2010, when the Cowboys won the turnover battle.

There are some injuries to take into consideration. There’s about a 90% chance that Jason Witten sits this game out. Miles Austin is listed as questionable. …

I’m very pleased with how my fantasy football drafts panned out thanks to our 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings. I was in two 10-team leagues. I had pick #8 in the first draft and pick #10 in the second draft. Here is how my rosters panned out.

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Reaction:

I was actually looking forward to picking late since I wanted Jimmy Graham in round 2. Since I took Brees at #8 overall and CJ2K fell to #12, I had to take CJ2K who fell right into my lap. I had CJ2K ranked #9 overall.

As you can see, Torrey Smith is my mid-round sleeper. Get this guy if he’s around in round 8. I think he’s capabable of 1,000 yards and at least 6 TDs.  He put up 841 yards and 7 …

It seems as if almost everyone has come to the conclusion that Larry Fitzgerald is the clear No. 2 wide receiver after Calvin Johnson. However, I’ve seen a few people rank Julio Jones as the No. 2 wide receiver. I think it’s a fair debate to argue that Julio Jones deserves the No. 2 wide receiver ranking.  In fact, I have him ranked No. 2 over Larry Fitzgerald.

Here’s what I don’t like about Fitzgerald. His QB situation. Although he had the same QB situation in 2011 at had a monster season with 80 receptions, 1,411 yards, and 8 TDs, I rather have a receiver with a much better QB throwing him the football. The Falcons could easily be a scoring machine and the team to beat in the NFC outside of the Packers. The Cardinals will struggle to go .500. On the plus side, Fitzgerald had a much better 2nd half with Skelton as his QB compared to Kevin Kolb. All signs point to Skelton getting the starting job, who had much better chemistry with Fitzgerlad than Kolb.

Fitzgerald had a much better statistical season in 2011, but many feel that Julio Jones is going to breakout this season and go nuts this year. Julio Jones’ stats last season are 54 receptions, 959 yards, and 8 TDs (12 games). What I like with both players is their yards per reception. Julio Jones averaged 17.8 yards per receptions (ranked 7th) which is right on par with Fitzgerald’s 17.6 (ranked 8th), but Fitzgerald’s career average is 13.9.

Jones also had a hamstring injury nag him throughout the season which kept him out of 4 games. If Julio would have played in 16 games, his stats could have come out to 72 …

Which TE do I draft first? Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski?

I expect Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski to go in the beginning of round 2. I think these players do deserve to go where they’re getting drafting. A lot of people are saying these players are getting overdrafted. I disagree. After Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julio Jones, I put both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham over any other wide receiver. Both will have over 1,200 receiving yards and at least 8 TDs.  In 2011, both Graham and Gronkowski had over 1,300 receiving yards and over 10 TDs. Gronkowski edged Graham out in both categories: 1,327 yards and 17 TDs compared to 1,310 yards and 11 TDs.

2011 Statistics

ROB GRONKOWSKI (16 games)
90 receptions, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs (124 targets)

JIMMY GRAHAM (16 games)
99 receptions, 1,310 yards, 11 TDs, (149 targets)

2012 Fantasy Rankings

NFL.com’s composite rankings has Ron Gronkowski ranked #13 and Jimmy Graham ranked #15 with Julio Jones in between. Yahoo has Jimmy Graham ranked #11 and Rob Gronkowski #13 with Larry Fitzgerald in between. Very interesting.

2012 Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line is you can’t miss with either of these guys with an early second round pick. You have to take them over the top WR and RB in the next class after the top 5 RBs, top 5 QBs, and top 3 WRs are off the board. If you’re sitting with the #14 or #15 pick in your fantasy draft, if Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are there, you take them. I have them ranked #10 and #11 after Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson followed by Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones.

You can even make the debate that one of these guys is …

Who should I draft with the 9th pick, Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson?

After the top three runningbacks (Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and Ray Rice) are off the board, many fantasy owners will be trying to decide between Chris Johnson or Darren McFadden as the next back off the board. Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford are likely 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 off the board. Your 2012 fantasy football draft will really start to get exciting around the 9th pick and odds are that you’re trying to decide between Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden.

Each back has some concerns going into the 2012 season. Can Darren McFadden stay healthy? Will Chris Johnson rebound from a poor 2011 campaign? Last year was a disappointing season for Chris Johnson who held out throughout the offseason until he landed a huge contract. Johnson saw career lows in yards, touchdowns, and yards-per-carry. Darren McFadden, on the other hand, got off to a great start in 2011 and put up ridiculous numbers in his first four games of the season until going down with a sprained foot in week 7 which kept him out for the remainder of the season.

Let’s start off by comparing the stats.

2011 Stats

2012 Fantasy Projections

NFL.com’s composite rankings has Chris Johnson #10 and …