Football Picks Against the Spread

This week was a success in the NFL for me. I hit on my top game in the Broncos (-4.5) over the Giants, and I split my other pair in winning Cowboys (+3), but losing on Saints (-4). The write-up held true: I knew the Bucs would keep it close being at home in a division game, but I had to take a shot on Saints in this spot based on their respective week 1 play. As long as I hit the big one, I’m happy, and that’s what happened.

The Bengals (-6.5) then capped off a solid week on Monday Night. I think I’m going to continue pounding the Steelers and may ride the Seahakws minus whatever at home from here on out. A lot of tough games this week with road dogs looking to deliver a slew of upsets. Miami +1 vs. Falcons, Panthers +1 vs. Giants, Ravens +1 vs. Texans, Bengals +2.5 vs. Packers. A few of those home favorites will cover. Watch out.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs

The flawed Eagles D that I was talking about in week 1 reared its ugly head. The Eagles could not stop the Chargers on third down to save their life. The Chargers punted maybe once in that game if my memory serves me correct. I liked how their D looked in Week 1, but they just didn’t show up this week. Being at home back-to-back on a short week should help the Eagles. Their offense has also looked outstanding in both weeks. They could have one of the league’s top offenses if they keep this up. If they got just one or two more stops on 3rd down, they would have had that game. Chiefs are …

In just after week 2, you’re already making transactions looking to improve your roster wherever you can. There has been a slew of injuries that are leaving you looking for a Plan B or your top draft picks are already letting you down. Here are the top waiver moves after week 2.

There are some concerns for RGIII owners. Although he’s actually put up solid back-to-back 20+ point games in week 1 and week 2, Robert Griffin III has been awful in the first half and clearly should take the blame for the losses in both weeks. His mechanics are off because of the knee injury and he’s afraid to get hit. There’s already talk that if the Redskins go 0-3, Shanahan should bench RGIII until he’s healthy and go with Kirk Cousins. Redskins fans are already calling for Cousins. If there is a QB controversy in Washington, you better start looking elsewhere for a reliable backup if you don’t already have one.

At the top of the QB waiver wire, I would take Philip Rivers. Rivers is looking good again despite not having a true #1 receiver. He has a bunch of roleplayers and he’s making it work. With a Malcom Flloyd, Eddie Royal, a healthy Antonio Gates, and now Danny Woodhead to work with on 3rd down, he has plenty of weapons at his disposal to work with. Ken Wissenhunt has been doing a great job with this offense and the Chargers offense should be back to the 27 PPG offense that we’ve been used to in year’s past when Rivers was a fantasy stud in the 2008-2011 years where Rivers averaged about 30 TD/year and threw for over 4,000 yards every single season. The Chargers are …

It’s so good to have the NFL back. What a week in Week 1. Nearly every single game was close and came down to the wire. It was a great week for the dogs. I tried to pick a spot with calling an upset with the Panthers over the Seahawks. They almost did it if it wasn’t for DeAngelo Williams fumbling the game away.

The close week in all games really shows the parity between teams in the NFL. Early in the season, the dogs usually have the edge when every team is 0-0 and each team thinks they’re going to make the playoffs. Huge improvements among the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals, Lions, Eagles, and many other teams that were written off last year and in past years. There is one certainty among teams in that last half of the power rankings last year, the Jaguars are still the worst team in the NFL! How quickly coaching changes and drafting well can turn around teams immediately.

Last week, nearly all the advice I dished out was sound. I did extremely well picking games straight up, but those (-4.5) spreads cost you when your team pulls off a win by 3-4 points. Not a big deal as it’s only Week 1 and I like to take the first 4 weeks to evaluate things. I continue to believe that the books have the edge weeks 1-8 and that turns around in weeks 9-17 which has always been my bread and butter. The playoff teams step it up a notch while teams whose playoff hopes are defeated give up on the season, which is where I always try to capitalize.

I really like the primetime games this week with …

Nice to be back for another year of College Football. Over the years my betting strategy has really changed. I use to be a straight numbers guy, but over the past two years I have primarily become a situational player, in that I look for certain spots where either the casino has laid a bad number or more often the public has over bet a certain team.

Heading into Week 3 there is only one major college game on tap, Alabama (-7.5) at Texas A&M, but I do think there are a couple other plays that are worth taking a shot at.

ALABAMA (-7.5) vs. Texas A&M. I know recently some of the Alabama players have come out and said this is not a revenge game from last year when A&M upset them at home, but I did read a report that stated Alabama has had that game on a continual loop in the weight room since the season began. So I don’t buy the argument that there isn’t any revenge angle here. Additionally, I doubt Alabama liked hearing about how great Johnny Football was all year. Further, I am sure they didn’t appreciate his off the field antics either. Despite all the off field issues involved, A&M’s Defense is flat out terrible, make that TERRIBLE! Stats: PYA Avg. 176.5 yds, RYA Avg. 273, PPG Avg. 29.5. Who did they play? Rice and Sam Houston State. So let me say it again, TERRIBLE. Johnny Football better come to play just so A&M can keep it respectable, but don’t expect it and don’t expect Saben to let his foot off the gas when they are up 21 or more. Lay the points with Alabama for 2 units.

SOUTHERN UTAH (+21.0) vs. …

Question:

Standard League. Who  should I start at Flex? Pick only 1.

Chris Ivory, Gio Bernard, Golden Tate, or Stevie Johnson

Answer:

I would go Golden Tate. I expect the Panthers and Seahawks to exchange TDs in this game. I like this game going over 47 points. Tate should also be Seattle’s top receiver this year as he takes a big step forward this year.

After Tate, I would actually go with Stevie Johnson. Not because he could be a top-scorer, but because he’s just straight thug and running his mouth against the Patriots. I hope he has a big game to back up his talk because the Patriots deserve getting a beat down.

Giovanni Bernard will be splitting caries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Giovanni Bernard gets maybe 15 carries this game against a tough Bears defense. I want to see how he splits the load with BenJarvus Green-Ellis first.

I wouldn’t advise you to start any Jets player. Chris Ivory is behind Bilal Powell on the depth chart and the Jets should be one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league.…

It’s hard to believe that the NFL season is back. We are ready to dominate the 2013 season just like we did the 2012 season. Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league. It’s a great way to track your picks against the spread throughout the season and you’ll have a chance to win an NFL Shop t-shirt. Click here to register.  The league number is 35254 and the password is thepassrush.

My favorite spreads this week are Texans (-4.5) over Chargers, Bucs (-4) over the Jets, Redskins (-4) over the Eagles, and Colts (-10) over the Raiders. My upset of the week and favorite game to take the points in is Panthers (+4.5) over the Seahawks. I also have two teasers for you.  A 1:00 teaser of Colts (-3.5) and Patriots (-3.5) and a special prime-time teaser for you featuring Redskins (+3) and Texans (+2.5). It’s week 1, and I take it easy through the first four weeks and dial it up around week 5. There’s still a lot of unknowns.

DENVER BRONCOS (-8) over Baltimore Ravens

We posted this full pick earlier this week. I’m passing on this game as the spread is too high against the defending Super Bowl Champions. With Elvis Dumervil now on the Ravens and Von Miller suspended, the Broncos also have question marks on defense, but I expect the Broncos offense to be clicking which should allow them to cruise to an easy victory.

PICK: Broncos (-7) – Confidence 6/10

PREDICTION: Broncos 27 – Ravens 17

New England Patriots (-9.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

I’m passing on this one. There’s a lot of merit into thinking the Patriots will crush the Bills here. The Bills have a rookie QB learning a …

The Pass Rush is back for another season of football picks. Last year was another success and we’re ready to kick ass for another season. We have renewed our pick ’em league so be sure to sign up. Not only is it a great way to track your picks against the spread throughout the entire season, but you’ll have a chance to win an NFL Shop t-shirt if you win the league. I ended up in 2nd place last year and Beantown Brawlers took down the title. Click here to register.  The league number is 35254 and the password is thepassrush. If you haven’t drafted in your fantasy football league yet, be sure to check out our 2013 Fantasy Football Rankings.

Baltimore Ravens @ DENVER BRONCOS (-8)

We start of the season with a rematch from the AFC Championship. I’m going to pass on this game and look to the spreads on Sunday. I think the Ravens take a step back this season as they have a ton of starters to replace on that defense, which is a huge question mark for them going into the 2013 season.

The loss of Anquan Boldin and the injury to Dennis Pitta also takes some options away in the passing game for the re-signed Joe Flacco, who got a ridiculous contract in the offseason. I say the Ravens end up 9-7 or even 8-8 this year, while the Broncos should finish the season no worse than 10-6 and likely around the 12-4 mark being in an easy division. The Broncos are also without some key players as Elvis Dummervil is now on the Ravens and Von Miller was recently suspended for the first six games of the season, so the …