Football Picks Against the Spread

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As readers of the site know, THE PASS RUSH tends to heat up around Thanksgiving time. Last year our Thanksgiving picks went 3-0 ATS to follow up a 4-0 ATS the week before. Last week, we hit all of our picks going 2-0-1 on Sunday and nailing the Monday night game to go 3-0 in our last 3 Monday Night Picks. The last week has positioned us to make a huge run in the last week of November going into Decemeber.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) @ DETROIT LIONS

We finally get to see a competitive game on Thanksgiving featuring the Lions. We have the 10-0 Green Bay Packers vs. 7-3 Detroit Lions. I don’t think the Lions have played on Thanksgiving with a winning record in over a decade. With both teams averaging over 30 PPG, I am excited to watch this game. I’m definitely leaning Packers, but I’ve been singing the Lions praises since before the season even started. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, while the Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. In the last 10 games between these teams, the Packers are 7-3 ATS. I’m going to go with the better team and the team with a history of winning this matchup, the Green Bay Packers. No doubt that Lions are a much better football team capable of finally beating the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers is just a machine. He will put scoring drive after drive together and keep the Lions offense off the field as best he can. 63% of the money is on the Packers in this one.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 24

Free Pick Against the Spread: Packers -6 (Confidence: 3/5)…

Question: Which 3 wide receivers would you play in week 11?

I need to start 3 of these 4.

Miles Austin vs. DET
Anquan Boldin vs. CAR
Greg Jennings vs. MIN
Brandon Lloyd vs. SD

Right now I’ve got Miles Austin on my bench, but who would you bench?

Best answer:

You have a great set of wide receivers with good matchups.  I like Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Lloyd. Anquan Boldin hasn’t impressed me much this year. He gets his touches but Torrey Smith is the Ravens wideout that I would want on my team. Brandon Lloyd could have a big game against SD. I say you bench Boldin or Lloyd, but definitely start Miles Austin against Detroit.

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Question: I need tons of help making my week 10 fantasy football picks.

QB: Tim Tebow vs. KC or Matt Schaub vs. TB

RB: LeGarrette Blount vs. HOU or Beanie Wells vs. PHI

TE: Vernon Davis vs. NYG or Brandon Pettigrew vs. CHI

FLEX: Stevie Johnson vs. DAL or Willis McGahee vs. KC

Best answer:

I would go with Matt Schaub vs. TB since Tebow is too inconsistent. He has had some monster fantasy games, but also some fantasy busts. Tampa’s defense is not very good this year. Houston’s run defense has been strong, while Philly’s has given up a lot of yardage since they have huge question marks at the linbacking position. I think Beanie Wells will put up some great numbers. Vernon Davis is a no-brainer against the Giants. Pettigrew’s numbers are inconsistent. I would put McGahee in the flex. Since Moreno has some injury concerns, McGahee will be getting a lot of carries.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

It was a great week for me as I hit my top 2 picks with the 3 posted picks going 2-0-1 against the spread. I hit on the 49ers/Packers teaser, hit on the Bears, and the Falcons pick pushed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17)

I’m going with the Patriots tonight. The last time the Chiefs played on Monday Night, I took the Chiefs in a teaser over the Chargers and ended up hitting. The Chiefs even won outright 23-20 as 3.5-point dogs. I’ll go with Brady almost every time. The line opened at Patriots -14 and moved to -17 so the public is all over the Patriots with the high spread. I am fully expecting a rout tonight with Matt Cassel out for the Chiefs just like everyone else is. The Chiefs may also be without their best corner Brandon Flowers. I’ve already had a big week and hate high spreads so this is going to be just a small play.

Prediction: Patriots 38 – Chiefs 10

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -17 (Confidence: 3/5)…

Question: I need some help picking my RB/WR/FLEX for week 12.

I’m in a 12-man PPR league.

RB: Peyton Hillis, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Danny Woodhead. (Pick 2)
WR: Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Mike Thomas (Pick 2)
Flex: Anyone out of the RB or WR above. (Pick 1)

Thoughts? I have too many good WR to choose from and not enough RB choices. I am 6-5 so far this year, with 3 losses by under 10 points.

Best answer:

RB: I would go with Hillis and Woodhead.

WR: Start Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Mike Wallace.  Those are all very easy choices.  You have great wide receivers, but running back is a problem.

FLEX: Beanie Wells.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

In the pick ’em league, yours truly ended up numero uno last week with 11 wins for a 11-5 ATS record bringing my season record to 74-66 ATS. The Monday Night play also helped me make up some ground on the Seahawks upset over the Ravens. There’s not a whole lot of games that I like this week. There’s a couple road teams in pick ’em games that I would consider, BUF (+1) @ MIA, JAC (+1) @ CLE, OAK (-1) @ MIN, but I view them as coin tosses. Here is what I have on tap for you this week. I’m not crazy about my two straight-up picks, but really like the Packers/49ers teaser.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)

When picking teams, finding teams carrying momentum is always a smart move and the team with the most momentum in the NFL right now is the Chicago Bears who are coming into this one with 4-straight wins. The problem with momentum teams is not getting a favorable spread since if this game was played three weeks ago, the game would likely be a pick ’em instead of the Bears as 3.5-point favorites. After the Bears Monday Night loss to the Lions, they’ve had dominating wins over the Vikings, Bucs, Eagles, and Lions. The Bears are putting up a surprising 31.4 PPG at home and limiting teams to 18.2 PPG.

San Diego, on the other hand, hasn’t performed well on the road. Their defense is giving up 27.2 PPG when travelling. With the Chargers key defensive playmakers (Castillo and Phillips) still out, I think you go Bears here. The Chargers are also likely without offensive linemen Louis Vasquez and Marcus McNeil — they’re listed as questionable. The Bears have …

Question: Which WR should I go with for week 10?

Larry Fitzgerald vs. SEA

Stevie Johnson vs. DET

Best answer:

I would sit Larry Fitzgerald. The QB situation in Arizona is too inconsistent, and playing Fitzgerald has become too risky. I would go with Stevie Johnson since Ryan Fitzpatrick has been throwing 40-45 passes a game and Stevie Johnson is his main target. He will tear apart the awful Lions pass defense. I say that Stevie puts up 100+ points.

Leave your own answer in the comments below!…